Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News, Putin's Ceasefire Plan Analysed
Table of Contents 📖
"Putin is not in any position to dictate to Ukraine what they must do to bring about peace. Peace comes from Putin taking his troops out of Ukraine, right?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the third part of his Ukraine War update for 14th June 2024 which focusses on Geopolitics and includes analysis of Putin's ceasefire plan. There's a lot to get through.
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Putin's Ceasefire Proposal
🎦 00:15-02:50⏩
Jonathan reports that Putin has said that Russia is willing to enter into negotiations concerning Ukraine under specific conditions which are:
- The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the fully or partially Russian occupied Ukrainian regions.
- Kyiv's declaration of no plans to join NATO.
- Upon Ukraine's withdrawal from these regions, Russia would cease fire and be ready for negotiations
- The lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia
- Formal recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Zaporizhia region and Kherson region as Russian territories in international treaties.
Jonathan believes that these demands are unrealistic and Putin is unlikely to be open to any give and take. He highlights that Putin demanded the city of Zaporizhia more than 18 months after the annexation of the region. Jonathan notes that when Zelensky and Putin met face to face in 2019, onlookers observed that Putin had no idea how to negotiate, having never had to before as he always gets what he wants.
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Ukraine's Response to Putin's Proposal
🎦 02:50-03:48⏩
Unsurprisingly, Ukraine rejected the proposal immediately. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry believe that the so-called peace proposal was timed to disrupt the global peace summit in Switzerland and Jonathan agrees. He believes that Putin is looking for negotiations because Russia are suffering heavy losses on the front line, particularly around Kharkiv. He highlights that the timing of Putin's proposal coincides with:
- A new bilateral agreement between the US and Ukraine.
- The US are to supply squadrons of jets.
- $25bn of military aid to be sent to Ukraine from the US.
- Germany is ramping up its support.
- Biden announced that Ukraine will be prioritised for Patriot missile systems.
- EU elections haven't gone to plan for Putin.
Jonathan believes that the proposal smacks of desperation and it is not the right time for Ukraine to negotiate.
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Lloyd Austin's Response and NATO Support
🎦 03:48-08:11⏩
Jonathan shares a quote from US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, who said that Putin is in no position to dictate peace terms and that peace can only be achieved when Putin withdraws his troops from sovereign Ukrainian territory. He reports that the US and allies are to increase weapon supplies as the war has entered a key stage. Jonathan believes that the increase in aid and support for Ukraine is creating momentum and that the return on investment is worthwhile because it will contribute to a swifter Ukrainian victory. He is critical of previous strategies whereby an increase in military aid was provided when Ukraine were in a critical position, arguing that an increase in aid when they are doing well makes more strategic sense. Jonathan reports that NATO Defence Ministers have agreed a plan to provide expanded support to Ukraine. NATO will manage and coordinate security assistance and oversee the training of Ukrainian armed forces. It was also reported that NATO are yet to agree regular contributions to cover the costs of this work.
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Jonathan's Analysis of Putin's Proposal
🎦 08:11-12:21⏩
Jonathan analyses the aid and support that is being provided to Ukraine:
- Artillery ammunitions are being delivered from the Czech Republic
- Training is being provided throughout Europe.
- A training coalition will be set up within Ukraine.
- The military industrial complex of allied countries is being set up in Ukraine.
- Links and Fuchs armoured vehicles and personnel carriers are being sent to Ukraine.
- NATO have pledged $40bn per year in aid to Ukraine.
Jonathan believes that Russia will be looking at all of this and will be questioning whether the decision to invade Ukraine was the right one. They will be acutely aware that the situation is escalating daily. Jonathan believes that the situation is unsustainable for Russia and that it is likely Putin will be getting a skewed picture of what is happening on the ground because he does not have access to the internet. Instead, he receives his intelligence via reports provided to him and has no way of verifying the information. Jonathan uses an analogy to demonstrate how he fact checks information using the internet.
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G7 Demands Russia Pay for Damages
🎦 12:21-13:05⏩
The G7 have demanded that Russia pay Ukraine $486bn in damages. Jonathan speculates that Russia will view this as a further sign that negotiations are the best course of action. Jonathan believes that China are unlikely to want to be aligned with Russia long term because they are purely transactional and do not view Russia as an ideological ally.
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Russia Threatens "Liberation" and Surrender Offer
🎦 13:05-14:12⏩
Russia state that they will liberate the annexed regions if their conditions for a ceasefire are not met, claiming that their proposal was their final peaceful offer. The next offer will be a surrender offer.
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Zelensky Meets with Pope and Modi
🎦 14:12-14:56⏩
Jonathan highlights Zelensky's gruelling schedule, referring to him as the busiest politician ever. Zelensky met with both the Pope and the newly elected Indian Prime Minister, Modi. The latter is likely to be a tricky meeting, given Modi's nationalist stance. The Pope has previously made controversial comments suggesting that it is Ukraine's responsibility to sue for peace, rather than the aggressors.
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UK Response and Sanctions
🎦 14:56-18:12⏩
Jonathan believes that the UK still holds a special place in Russia's heart as they still view the UK as a major player on the world stage with a powerful intelligence network. He shares a quote from former UK Prime Minister, David Cameron who, speaking to Italian Newspaper, Corriere della Serra, vowed to "hunt for money, oil, stop the gas, stop the ships", and to do everything in their power to cripple the Russian war machine. This follows a decision by the UK to impose sanctions against the Moscow Stock Exchange, the National Clearing Centre and the National Settlement Depository. Further sanctions were announced, this time targeting companies in China, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan and Israel who are believed to be supplying dual-use materials. The UK also pledged to clamp down on the 'phantom fleet', preventing them from docking at Italian ports. Jonathan speculates that Russia will be aware of the increasing pressure as a result of coordinated action by Ukraine's allies, particularly with regard to sanctions. The situation will be a challenge for Russia and one which will likely to have an adverse impact on the Russian economy. Jonathan reports that Russia's Central Bank are considering raising interest rates to between 17% and 18% in July to combat rising inflation.
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Taliban Seek to Join BRICS and Eurasian Economic Union
19:18-20:54⏩
The Taliban have requested to join BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union. Jonathan jokes that Russia will be happy to have them on board as allies, given they are something of a pariah state.
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EU States Call for Restrictions on Russian Diplomats
🎦 20:54-23:36⏩
Eight EU states want to place restrictions on the freedom of movement of Russian diplomats, believing that this will limit the opportunities for Russian agents to conduct sabotage operations within the EU. This move follows a recent Russian cyber attack against Switzerland. Jonathan believes that such actions will only serve to push countries further away from Russia and lead to increased support for Ukraine. Jonathan provides an update on the EU elections and confirms that following a recount, Mick Wallace has not been re-elected. This is good news as Claire Daly, Tatjana Ždanoka and Mick Wallace are all pro-Russian.
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Coca-Cola Returns to Russia
🎦 23:36-24:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Coca-Cola are to return to Russia, two years after withdrawing. He makes a sarcastic comment about how much Russians love Coca-Cola, seemingly forgetting about the war crimes, and the report which confirms that Russian forces deliberately starved civilians in Mariupol. Jonathan reports that Hungary is now subject to restrictions on intelligence sharing with NATO.
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Ukrainian Media Outlet Threatened for Exposing US Spreaders of Russian Disinformation
🎦 26:21-27:44⏩
Respected Ukrainian media outlet, Texty.org.ua, published a list of US entities and individuals who are hindering support for Ukraine. The list includes Jordan Peterson, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, the Heritage Foundation and Ron Paul. Those on the list responded aggressively, accusing the organisation of receiving US funding, mobilising their supporters to issue threats against the organisation's staff. Jonathan expresses solidarity with Texty.org.ua.
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Trump's Stance on Ukraine
🎦 27:44-30:27⏩
Jonathan is baffled by Trump supporters who believe that he will be good for Ukraine. He challenges them to look at Trump's record, in particular his criticism of the $60bn aid package for Ukraine and his transactional approach. He believes that this demonstrates that Trump lacks the understanding that supporting Ukraine represents a return on investment in terms of military and geopolitical strategy. He urges Trump supporters to carry out their own research before making their minds up.
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Rand Paul Criticises US Bilateral Agreement with Ukraine
🎦 30:27-33:38⏩
Libertarian Republican Senator, Rand Paul, criticised the recent bilateral agreement, claiming that it paves the way for another forever war and risked US involvement in future conflicts. He believes that the US should be putting their own interests first. Jonathan likens this statement to propaganda from the 1930s. He compares Rand Paul's position to that of John McCain, who understood the situation in Ukraine and was a staunch supporter. He is critical of Rand Paul and believes that he is effectively working for Putin. He believes that John McCain, who openly criticised members of his own party for failing to support Ukraine, would be horrified by current events.
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Russians in US Call for Nuclear Attack
🎦 33:38-35:13⏩
Jonathan highlights the irony of those within the US who are critical of Biden's support for Ukraine when there are calls from some Russians living in the US to launch a nuclear attack against the US. He shows footage of a rally in Washington (although he believes that only around 200 people were in attendance).
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Update on Evan Gershkovich
🎦 35:06-35:25⏩
US journalist, Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested in Russia and accused of espionage, has been formally indicted but no date for his trial has been set.
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China Increase Cyber Attacks Against the US
🎦 35:25-36:27⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to an article in The Economist, China have intensified their cyber campaign against the US. This could be pre-emptive, in preparation for war.
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Impact of War on Climate Change
🎦 36:27-37:29⏩
Jonathan reports that climate change experts have concluded that the war in Ukraine has accelerated climate change, with the conflict resulting in 175 million tons of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere - the equivalent of 175 countries.
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Belarus Supplies Arms to Azerbaijan
🎦 37:29-37:36⏩
Leaked documents reveal that Belarus supplied Azerbaijan with advanced weaponry, despite being in a Russian-led security alliance with Armenia.
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UK Elections Update
🎦 37:36-39:20⏩
The Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, are ahead of the Conservatives, according to the latest polls. Jonathan explains how, because the UK operates a first-past-the-post system, the Reform Party may win the popular vote but end up with very few seats. He predicts that if the Conservatives perform badly and the Reform Party overtake them, the two parties are likely to merge in a bid to reinvent themselves.
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French Politics in Chaos
🎦 39:20-47:02⏩
French politics is in a state of chaos, with a series of bizarre and shocking events:
- Following a poor performance in the EU elections, Macron dissolved the National Assembly.
- The left-wing parties formed a progressive alliance, much to the annoyance of the head of the Socialist Party who was widely mocked for trying to prevent it.
- The leader of Les Republicains, the centre right party, announced that they would form an alliance with Marine Le Pen's National Rally, only to be promptly sacked by his own party.
- Ciotti retaliated by changing the locks to the party headquarters.
- The party's General Secretary then used her set of keys to regain access and Ciotti was removed from his post. He refuses to accept the decision.
- Marianne Marichal, granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, and niece of Marine Le Pen, who joined the right-wing Reconquette party, announced live on TV that she wants her party to form an alliance with her aunt's party, without consulting the party leader.
- Reconquette was founded by Zemmour, the man who was to be ousted in the event of the alliance going ahead.
- Zemmour publicly accused Maréchal of betrayal, announcing that he will field his own candidates.
- Maréchal then accused Zemmour of making a triple mistake, urging voters to support those who allied with the National Rally.
- Macron accused the new left-wing alliance of being anti-semitic because they campaigned in support of the Palestinians.
- Alain Finkielkraut, a Jewish intellectual announced that he will vote for Le Pen.
- It transpires that Le Pen's party was co-founded by a former member of the Waffen SS.
Jonathan concludes that French politics is bonkers, with infighting and chaos rife.
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Wrap up
🎦 47:02-47:09⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.
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