Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Ukraine has no sovereign right to self-determination. It has no say in what's going to happen with Ukraine. Zelensky has no say. Well, Lukashenko, you can jog on, mate, if that's how you see this. If you see it's just between Biden and Putin, then you've misunderstood everything."
Hello Team!
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian figures for Russian losses, noting some significant upticks:
- Liquidated personnel has gone up considerably, indicating a tough day on the front lines for both sides
- 16 artillery systems lost, which is a huge uptick. Artillery causes many of the losses in this war. Whilst Russia may have large stocks, it's unclear if they are well-maintained.
- Consistent losses of anti-aircraft systems which are more expensive and impactful than artillery pieces
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Front Line Update
There has been an uptick in artillery and air defense systems being taken out by Ukraine in the Kherson region. Jonathan theorizes Ukraine may be methodically degrading Russian air defenses to enable them to achieve some localized air superiority to support an advance. Serhii Haidai reports a significant increase in Russian attacks in the Luhansk region.
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Potential Russian Air Offensive
A Russian MOD leak suggests Russia may commit its air force again, accepting heavy losses in a bid to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and achieve some gains. However, UK intelligence has not seen signs of a major aircraft build up and believes Russia is unlikely to conduct large-scale air operations due to the heavy losses they would suffer. Ukraine's air defenses are much stronger now than earlier in the war. The leak may indicate Russia is preparing to endure "Pyrrhic victories" in the air as it has done on the ground in Bakhmut, but others argue it would be a desperate and unwise move given Ukraine's bolstered air defenses.
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Wagner Group Troubles
There are increasing reports that regular Russian forces are refusing to supply ammunition to the Wagner Group around Bakhmut. Wagner mercenaries have complained about the lack of artillery shells. This may be due to overall shortages of ammunition on the Russian side, or an attempt by the regular army to sideline the Wagner Group. There are reports Wagner is being replaced by regular Russian units around Bakhmut.
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Political Developments
- Keir Starmer, UK opposition leader, visited Kiev and met with Zelensky, stating UK policy on Ukraine would remain unchanged if he becomes PM. This signals Labour's firm stance on Ukraine to the left of the party.
- In a BBC interview, Zelensky emphasized Ukraine's need for security guarantees and stated any territorial compromises would weaken Ukraine. He dismissed the idea of compromising with Putin due to a complete lack of trust.
- Lukashenko suggested he could mediate talks between Biden and Putin to resolve the war, failing to even mention Zelensky. Jonathan criticizes this as completely misunderstanding Ukraine's right to self-determination.
Other News
- Another Russian official, Marina Yankina, was likely assassinated by defenestration in St Petersburg, possibly to eliminate witnesses to embezzlement by a top general.
- France has sent the first 14 AMX-10RC light tanks to Ukraine, with a total of 30 expected. The crews have already completed training.
- A Ukrainian drone was reportedly destroyed near a power plant in Crimea. Ukraine claims there are power outages, suggesting the drone may have been successful.
- In occupied Mariupol, residents are spray-painting messages pleading for help, saying they are freezing without heating, power, gas or water. The city remains in dire straits under Russian occupation.
Wrap up
Jonathan signs off, asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video, and noting the ways to support the channel in the description. He will be back shortly with a front line update.
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