Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is just all so problematic, really deeply problematic."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Kryvyi Rih, Zelensky's hometown, which was badly hit with 44 injured and destruction of civilian infrastructure. He also discusses further revelations about Elon Musk's actions in October 2022, trying to de-escalate the war in a way that would have favored Russia. This is seen as deeply problematic given Musk's influence and control over important tech.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Front Line Updates
- In the Svatove-Karmazinovka area, geolocated footage shows a Russian tank column getting destroyed near Novoheorivka, their second failed attack this week.
- In the Serebiansky forest, momentum has shifted in favor of the Ukrainians, who have taken back some land.
- South of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are making advances, with Russians fleeing Klishchivka. Ukrainians have fire control over main supply roads into Andriivka.
- In Avdiivka, the Ukrainians have liberated 2.4 square kilometers near Opytne, pushing the Russians back.
- South of Velyka Novosilka, the Russians have pushed back and taken some land around Priyutne, which is worrying but may come at a cost for them.
- Around Robotyne, there are vague claims of Ukrainian success, with fighting reported in the north and east of Novoprokopivka.
Military Aid
- The US announced a $600 million aid package to Ukraine, including ammunition, air defense equipment, electronic warfare and counter-electronic warfare equipment, and demolition munitions. This is vital for Ukraine to continue their offensive.
- 190 MRAPs from the US have been delivered to Ukrainian border guards and police.
- France is delivering 150 Delalande drones to Ukraine.
- Armenia, traditionally defended by Russia, has been conducting military exercises with the US and providing aid to Ukraine, a significant shift.
- According to the Kiel Institute, Europe has now overtaken the US in total aid committed to Ukraine, with the EU alone doubling the US. Germany in particular has become a major donor.
Geopolitics
- British American Tobacco has sold its business in Russia and Belarus to local management.
- Cuban authorities have arrested 17 people associated with a criminal network that recruited Cubans to the Russian army.
- The US will deploy a military base near the Russian border in Finland, only 200km away at Rovaniemi Airport. Sweden is also fully ready to join NATO, with approval expected in autumn. These developments are seen as Putin shooting himself in the foot.
- A Russian man with a "Z" on his car was denied entry into Kazakhstan, illustrating the shifting public opinion in Eurasia.
- Jonathan discusses the amplification of a neo-Nazi gathering in Florida by Russian trolls on Twitter as an example of how Russia sows discord and spreads disinformation. He analyzes one account in particular as an example of a likely Russian troll, spreading divisive political content at odds with their profile as a conservative Israeli mother.
Wrap up
Jonathan emphasizes the insidious influence of Russian propaganda and the need to be wary of it, as demonstrated by the amplification of the neo-Nazi gathering in Florida by Russian trolls. He notes that this is a huge problem and that there are more Russian trolls than one might think, each with multiple sock puppet accounts.
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