Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
It is really tough on the eastern front line, really, for the Ukrainians still. They are getting weaponry obviously delivered and artillery ammunition is coming through. But the Russians... really need to take advantage of this period before F-16s get there and maybe some larger packages... It's a case of striking while the iron's hot...
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back to ATP Geopolitics and mentions he's just come in from spray painting in the garden. He will provide a quick frontline update for the 29th of June 2024 before he does some late-night spray painting.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Vovchansk: Ukrainian Gains and Air Activity
🎦 00:38-03:25⏩
Jonathan reports no changes on the western sector of the front line near Vovchansk. He highlights Ukrainian gains in pushing back Russian forces, with JR providing an updated map (thanks to JR!). Jonathan clarifies the area around Vovchansk might have been more of a grey zone than fully controlled by Russia. He addresses rumours about F-16 strikes, stating they're unsubstantiated. He cites a Twitter source, "Raging545", who notes increased freedom for Ukrainian aircraft due to the destruction of Russian air defences in Belgorod. This has enabled Ukrainian forces to strike Russian positions with French hammer bombs. While some suggest this indicates Ukrainian air parity or superiority, Jonathan remains sceptical, highlighting continued Russian air activity.
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Northeastern Sector: Russian Advance and Akhmat/153rd Refusal
🎦 03:25-05:40⏩
Jonathan observes no changes in the Kupyansk-Svatova-Kreminna axis. He reports substantial Russian gains south of Makiivka, covering nine kilometres. He also mentions the Akhmat and 153rd Tank Regiment refusing orders near Vovchansk after being placed on the front line. This refusal stems from their role as barrier troops and the heavy fighting in the area. The source states that the Akhmat and 153rd were reinforcements and refused to engage in assaults. Both units are now seeking to leave the front.
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Luhansk Front: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Gains
🎦 05:40-06:51⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian advances east of Nevske and Novoselivske based on information from Suriat Maps. He then shifts to the Terny-Torska area east of Yampolivka, where Andrew Perpetua reports small Ukrainian gains. However, there's conflicting information about the timing of these gains, with some claiming they happened in April. Jonathan expresses confusion but acknowledges the positive development of Ukrainian progress.
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Serebryansky Forest and Liman: Ukrainian Progress
🎦 06:51-07:46⏩
Jonathan reports Ukrainian gains in the Serebryansky Forest according to Deep State Map. He emphasizes the challenging fighting conditions in the Serebryansky Forest and Liman directions.
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Bakhmut-Soledar: Rosdolivka Under Russian Control
🎦 07:46-08:14⏩
Near Bakhmut and Soledar, Jonathan notes the Russians appear to be in control of Rosdolivka, though Deep State Map and Andrew Perpetua haven't updated their maps yet. He anticipates a change soon and believes the situation in Rosdolivka is extremely difficult.
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Chasiv Yar: Russian Gains and Ongoing Challenges
🎦 08:14-09:34⏩
Jonathan points out Russian advances in the Chasiv Yar area, specifically in the forest and parts of the canal micro district. He suggests these might be grey zone gains due to the terrain's unsuitability for mechanized equipment. Jonathan emphasizes the heavy artillery and air bombardment endured by Chasiv Yar for months, describing the situation as horrific. Despite this, he acknowledges the Ukrainian forces' resilience in holding back Russian troops.
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Toretsk Area: Russian Advances, Ukrainian Challenges, and Volunteer Restrictions
🎦 09:34-11:11⏩
Jonathan addresses the Toretsk area, noting Deep State Maps shows Russian forces pushed back slightly east of Pivdenne, while Suriat Maps suggests otherwise. He finds the situation in Toretsk concerning based on information from "Pierre", a trusted contact who's currently in Ukraine. Pierre reports that only armoured vehicles are allowed into Toretsk and New York, indicating a dangerous situation on the ground. Heavy artillery and glide bomb attacks are impacting Toretsk, Pivdenne, and the surrounding areas.
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Pivdenne: Russian Breakthrough and Advance
🎦 11:11-12:55⏩
Jonathan analyzes the situation in Pivdenne, where Suriat Maps indicates a Russian breakthrough. He explains how Russian forces exploited Ukrainian defences and terrain features, including tailings and spoil heaps, to advance into Pivdenne along Kolozka Street. Jonathan highlights the Russians capitalizing on Ukrainian rotations or errors to make gains in this area.
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Avdiivka and Southern Sector: Limited Russian Gains
🎦 13:00-13:47⏩
Jonathan mentions minor Russian gains near Avdiivka, moving towards the T0504 highway. He credits JR for adding pins reflecting this on the map. He also points out Russian advances west of Semenivka towards Novoselivske Druhe.
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Sokil and Umanske: Russian Control and Advances
🎦 13:47-14:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the Sokil area, reporting that Suriat Maps shows most of the locality under Russian control. He also mentions Russian advances between Umanske and Novopil.
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Eastern Front Line Assessment
🎦 14:18-15:13⏩
Jonathan summarizes the situation on the eastern front line, describing it as challenging for the Ukrainian forces. He observes that while Ukraine is receiving weaponry and ammunition, Russia is strategically capitalizing on the time before F-16s and potential larger aid packages arrive. Jonathan anticipates further Russian pressure throughout the summer months, taking advantage of favourable weather and ground conditions.
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Krasnohorivka: Russian Pincer Movement and Control
🎦 15:13-15:54⏩
Jonathan moves to Krasnohorivka, where Russia is attempting a pincer movement to capture the eastern part. He notes that maps from Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps both confirm that Russian forces now fully control all urban areas of Krasnohorivka.
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South of Krasnohorivka: Repositioning and Russian Gains
🎦 15:54-16:20⏩
Jonathan observes some repositioning south of Krasnohorivka, although he's unsure whether this indicates Ukrainian gains. He mentions previous discussions about Russian success in this area.
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Kostyantynivka: Substantial Russian Gains and Strategic Importance
🎦 16:20-17:50⏩
Jonathan describes substantial Russian gains north of Kostyantynivka, posing a significant challenge for Ukrainian forces. He highlights Kostyantynivka's strategic value, controlling the road south to Vuhledar. He predicts a major battle for Kostyantynivka due to its importance for both sides.
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Robotyne: Renewed Russian Advances
🎦 17:50-18:47⏩
Jonathan observes renewed Russian activity in Robotyne, with gains made northeast of the village. He explains that after a period of inactivity, Russian forces have advanced to reduce the salient east of Robotyne. Heavy fighting is ongoing in the area.
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Dnipro River: Russian Line Pushed Back, Potential Ukrainian Raid
🎦 18:47-20:35⏩
Jonathan notes a curious development on the Dnipro River, where Suriat Maps shows the Russian line pushed back between the Antonivsky Bridge and Kherson. He's unsure about the reason behind this change, speculating about a possible Ukrainian raid. Comparing it with Andrew Perpetua's map, which shows long-standing Ukrainian presence on the Dnipro's left bank, Jonathan concludes it might be related to new footage of Ukrainian activity in the area. However, he doesn't consider it a significant incursion at this time.
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Overall Assessment and Conclusion
🎦 20:35-21:14⏩
Jonathan sums up the day's updates, highlighting the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces on the eastern front. The most positive areas for Ukraine appear to be north of Kharkiv and in the Serebryansky Forest. Jonathan emphasizes the attritional nature of war and acknowledges the difficulty of attacking well-fortified positions.
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Wrap Up
🎦 21:14-21:14⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers, asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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