US Election Extra: Trump vs Harris Town Halls - Narcissist vs Servant Leader
Table of Contents 📖
"Social media has absolutely no qualms about feeding you whatever the algorithm thinks you should be listening to."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video which is a US Election special where he will be sharing his thoughts on how the election is shaping up. He acknowledges his own bias (that he's not a fan of Donald Trump) but that he is trying to be objective in his analysis.
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Disconnect Between Fundamentals and Perception
🎦 00:27-02:14⏩
Jonathan is puzzled about why the polls in the election are so close. He notes that there are a lot of indicators and facts that suggest a different picture. Jonathan refers to comments made by senior officials in Trump's administration who have criticised his policies and character, including Mark Milley and H.R. McMaster, but wonders why this doesn't seem to be reflected in the polls. He notes that the polls seem to suggest the race is close to 50/50.
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Enthusiasm Gap
🎦 02:14-09:25⏩
Jonathan goes on to highlight the contrasting levels of enthusiasm he observed at the rallies he attended, stating that the Harris rallies have significantly more enthusiastic crowds with packed arenas in Houston and Georgia compared to those of Trump. There were 30,000 people in attendance at the Harris rally in Georgia, compared to a Trump rally in Pennsylvania where there were empty seats and people leaving. Jonathan again wonders why this isn't reflected in the polls. He plays a clip from a Harris rally where the crowd is going wild for Michelle Obama and Eminem who are endorsing her, noting her impressive speech. He then analyses Obama's speech, noting his excellent rhetorical skills as he "raps" about Eminem before introducing Michelle Obama who goes on to "absolutely destroy" Trump. Jonathan questions whether the enthusiasm at the Harris rallies is widespread or just reflective of core supporters? He plays a clip from a Trump rally where the crowd is much quieter, noting the lack of energy. Jonathan notes that Beyonce was also at the Harris rally in Houston and that over 1 million people applied to attend. He summarises by wondering how widespread the enthusiasm for Harris is and whether there is a discrepancy between the highly engaged and enthusiastic voters who attend rallies and the general public.
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Policy Agendas/Knowledge Gap
🎦 09:25-11:58⏩
Jonathan then moves on to discuss the knowledge gap amongst the electorate. He discusses specific claims relating to the policies of both candidates that suggest there should be more of a difference in the polls. He cites an analysis from Steve Ratner that predicts that Trump's policies will cut GDP by 8.9% - twice the amount experienced during the financial crisis. Jonathan wonders how many people are aware of this analysis. He goes on to cite a JAMA article that estimates 64,565 pregnancies due to rape in states that have introduced abortion bans, adding that it is another important data point that should resonate with voters, especially women. He plays another clip of Michelle Obama who points out Trump's "gross incompetence", "erratic behaviour", and "obvious mental decline" as well as his history as a "convicted felon", "known slumlord" and "predator". Jonathan questions how much of this information is reaching voters given that Fox News, the primary news source for many Trump voters is unlikely to show this type of content. He notes that Fox News won't be highlighting these negative aspects of Trump, nor the similar claims made by former senior officials in his administration.
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Team Dynamics
🎦 11:58-14:52⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss team dynamics and the impact this might have on voter perception. He plays a CNN clip with Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team and investor, who makes the point that Harris has assembled a good team whereas 40 out of 44 members of Trump's previous administration turned against him, even labelling him a "fascist". Jonathan wonders why this knowledge about the dynamics within Trump's previous administration doesn't seem to be having more of an impact on the polls. He plays another CNN clip featuring Jake Tapper interviewing J.D. Vance, author of "Hillbilly Elegy" and Republican Senate candidate for Ohio. Vance dismisses those who turned against Trump as having a "horribly damaged worldview" and that they are all "going after Donald Trump because they want to send people into war". Jonathan notes that Vance's argument is essentially to dismiss experienced four-star Generals who had reached the highest levels in Trump's administration as "liars" and that Trump supporters are likely to accept this unquestioningly. He sarcastically refers to Trump's previous claims that he only employs "the best" people, pointing out that many of them were subsequently fired. Jonathan plays a clip of Trump at a rally where he insults his previous chief of staff, John Kelly, a four-star General, as "dumb as a rock" adding that he finds it "insanely insulting" and ironic given Trump's lack of knowledge.
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Trump's Authoritarian Inclinations
🎦 14:52-22:11⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the accusations of Trump being a fascist, which he describes as "overwhelming". He cites statements from many senior officials including John Kelly, H.R. McMaster and Mark Esper. He plays a clip from a CNN interview where Jake Tapper puts Kamala Harris on the spot by asking her directly whether she thinks Trump is a fascist. She replies "yes" and justifies it by referring to what these senior officials have said about Trump, as well as the evidence. Jonathan notes that Trump's response was to express outrage and that Harris was inciting violence. He plays a clip where Fox News presenter Bret Baier challenges Lindsey Graham about Harris calling Trump a fascist, noting that Trump uses this type of rhetoric himself. Graham attempts to defend Trump but Jonathan analyses his body language and facial expressions, noting that he knows Trump is using this language but is defending him regardless. Bret Baier plays a clip of Trump accusing Harris of being a fascist, a communist, a socialist and a marxist, which Jonathan points out doesn't make sense. Baier then asks Graham whether he thinks Harris is a fascist. Graham avoids answering by claiming she is "the most liberal person ever to be nominated by a major party" which Jonathan describes as a classic Trumpian "switcheroo" to avoid answering the question. Jonathan then questions whether the public are aware that Trump has spoken with Putin on numerous occasions without permission, citing the Logan Act that prohibits private citizens from conducting diplomacy. He plays a clip where Trump admits to speaking regularly with Bibi Netanyahu and that Netanyahu ignored advice from Biden on how to deal with Iran.
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Tyler Norris' Canvassing
🎦 22:11-25:18⏩
Jonathan refers to a comment he received from a user called Tyler Norris who has been door knocking/canvassing in North Carolina to gauge people's level of awareness about the upcoming election. Tyler's observation was that the majority of people he spoke to were not aware of the warnings made about Trump by General Milley and John Kelly. He goes on to say that several undecided voters he spoke to were surprised to hear this information and listened to what he had to say. His conclusion was that more canvassing was needed. Jonathan notes that this is an important observation as it explains the difference in awareness levels between the enthusiastic, highly informed voters that attend rallies and the general public. The reason why the polls are so close, despite all the evidence stacking up against Trump, is that the general public are not aware of it. Jonathan discusses the dangers of misinformation and disinformation, noting that many people are getting their news from unregulated social media sources such as Twitter where there is no accountability for what is published. He contrasts this to mainstream media who are regulated and accountable, noting that whilst they may be criticised for various reasons, they are more likely to report information responsibly. He adds that social media platforms can create "rabbit holes" and "echo chambers" that can reinforce existing beliefs and push people further to the left or right.
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Mainstream Media vs Social Media
🎦 25:18-29:53⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of Elon Musk, who has a significant financial interest in seeing Trump re-elected, dismissing mainstream media as being "extremely left-wing" and referring to them as "legacy media" with "left-wing bias". He refers to the Washington Post who are refusing to endorse any candidates, noting that they are "extremely left-wing" but "can't even handle their newspapers not endorsing a candidate and remaining neutral". Jonathan then plays a clip of Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist, responding to Musk's comments and noting that Fox News is by far the largest media outlet in the US and that the majority of local TV news channels are owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group - both have a strong right-wing bias. Wilson, who describes himself as one of the Republican operatives who promoted the idea that the media has a left-wing bias adds that it was "the biggest dirty trick the right ever pulled off". Jonathan agrees with Wilson's point and adds that this phenomenon exists in the UK too, citing the BBC which has a reputation for being left-wing despite the fact that those in editorial control are actually right-wing. He compares Fox News to the Daily Mail in the UK which has a huge readership and a right-wing agenda, adding that out of the main news sources in the UK, only 2 are left-wing. Jonathan then compares CNN to European news channels noting that CNN is actually quite centrist and could even be viewed as pro-corporatist and slightly right-wing. He summarises by expressing concern about the US media landscape which is preventing people from forming a balanced view of reality, citing Mark Milley and John Kelly as examples of those who have spoken out against Trump but their comments are not reaching voters.
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Republicans Endorsing Harris
🎦 29:53-34:14⏩
Jonathan notes that a silver lining in all of this is that a large number of high-profile Republicans have publicly come out and endorsed Harris, or at least refused to endorse Trump, and questions whether this will be reflected in the polls. He analyses the impact this will have on the votes, noting that if a Republican chooses to vote for a third-party candidate, this takes a vote away from Trump but doesn't help Harris. However, if a Republican votes for Harris, this takes a vote away from Trump and gives one to Harris - a 2 point swing. Jonathan proceeds to list the Republicans who have refused to endorse Trump and/or endorsed Harris and includes video clips of their endorsements. He includes:
- The Mayor of Waukesha, Wisconsin who announced his support for Harris live on a Fox News local TV station
- The former deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican Party
- Senator Pat Toomey from Pennsylvania - Jonathan notes this should be huge news as Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state
- State Senator Rob Cowles from Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Former Congressman from Michigan Fred Upton - Jonathan notes that he is a significant figure
Jonathan then highlights an infographic produced by the Lincoln Project that lists 40 former Trump cabinet members who have criticised Trump. Not all have endorsed Harris, but none have endorsed Trump. He expresses surprise that this information hasn't had more of an impact on the polls and concludes that something must be going on.
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Economists Endorse Harris
🎦 34:14-35:38⏩
Jonathan mentions that 22 Nobel economists have endorsed Harris and that their analysis suggests her policies will lead to stronger economic growth. He highlights the fact that Northampton County, Pennsylvania has voted for the winning Presidential candidate for the last 100 years. According to a Muhlenberg poll, Harris is 4% ahead in Pennsylvania and 7% ahead in Lehigh Valley. Jonathan concludes that if Harris wins Lehigh Valley and Northeast Pennsylvania, she will win the state and is much more likely to win the election.
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Poll Accuracy
🎦 35:38-37:16⏩
Jonathan questions the accuracy of the polls, which still suggest the race is very tight. He doesn't believe that the fact so many high profile Republicans have endorsed Harris should result in such a close race and that there must be an undercounting of votes. He notes that there is a huge gender gap with a large number of women expected to vote - this will likely favour Harris. He then moves on to discuss the fact that both the Washington Post and the LA Times, both newspapers owned by billionaires, are refusing to endorse Harris.
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Washington Post and LA Times Refuse to Endorse Harris
🎦 37:16-42:29⏩
Jonathan expresses his concern that both the Washington Post and the LA Times have refused to endorse Harris for fear of upsetting Trump. He cites Timothy Snyder's book "On Tyranny", highlighting lesson number one which is "do not obey in advance". Snyder explains that citizens can inadvertently strengthen authoritarianism by anticipating what a more repressive government might want and complying without being asked. Jonathan notes that this is exactly what has happened with both papers. He then plays a clip of Bill Kristol quoting the Washington Post's humor columnist who has written an unofficial endorsement of Harris, noting how embarrassing it is that it has been left to him to do so. The columnist goes on to say that he is endorsing Harris because "I like elections and want to keep having them". Jonathan points out the irony of the situation, given that the Washington Post's tagline is "Democracy Dies in Darkness" and shows a cartoon of darkness that they have published following their decision to withdraw their endorsement. Following the Washington Post's actions, other publications including Rolling Stone and Wired have endorsed Harris. Jonathan reveals that following the Washington Post's decision, 60,000 people have cancelled their subscriptions. He mentions a friend who works in the marketing department who has said that the cancellation rate is "unprecedented". He goes on to reveal that the outgoing editor of the Washington Post has claimed that the owner, Jeff Bezos, struck a deal with Trump to withdraw the endorsement and that the alleged deal took place when Trump met with executives from Bezos's company, Blue Origin, on the same day that Amazon withdrew their support for Harris. Jonathan compares this to Elon Musk who has donated $152m to Trump's campaign and notes that there are "some interesting shenanigans" going on. He concludes by saying that "we simply cannot allow the oligarchs to install their dictators".
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Latest Polls/Media Influence
🎦 42:29-44:21⏩
Jonathan refers to the latest polls which show that the race has become much closer and questions what is going on. He attributes this to the influence of Fox News and right-wing media who are delivering an "altered reality" to their viewers and expresses concern that many voters are not getting their news from mainstream media but from unregulated social media channels. He cites the statistic that 40 out of 44 members of Trump's administration did not endorse him and some labelled him a fascist but this isn't reaching many voters. Jonathan then refers to another statistic - of the 904,195 young democrats who voted early, 331,909 (36.7%) are first time voters. He wonders whether women and young voters are being undercounted.
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Joe Rogan Interview/Early Voting Statistics
🎦 44:21-50:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the three hour Joe Rogan interview with Trump and wonders whether it will influence young men to vote for him. He describes it as "horrific" and full of "BS" and "lies" that went unchallenged. He then refers to Dave Trotter who analyses voting trends and is concerned about the voting statistics from Pennsylvania. He notes that the early voting statistics show a lot of Republicans voting which raises a lot of questions. Are Republicans choosing to vote early rather than on election day? If so, there will be fewer voting on election day. Are a significant percentage of Republicans voting for Harris? The statistics suggest that these are not new voters but those who have voted before i.e. high propensity voters. Jonathan is concerned that although there appears to be a higher level of enthusiasm for the Democrats in Pennsylvania (as seen at the rallies), this isn't necessarily the case in other states. He refers to recent ABC polls that show Harris is outperforming Biden amongst black and latino men.
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Anecdotal Evidence from Threads
🎦 50:17-55:01⏩
Jonathan expresses optimism that there is a large undercount of Democrat voters, particularly amongst women and younger voters and that a significant number of registered Republicans will vote Democrat. He refers to comments he has received from his viewers, noting that several have said they are Republicans who will be voting Democrat, or are lifelong Republicans who voted for Trump previously but will not be voting for him this time. He refers to a specific comment he read from Tom Worth Jr., a former Republican who is endorsing Harris. Many of the comments in the thread support this theory, with many Republicans stating that they will be voting Democrat this time. Jonathan then refers to a comment from someone who cycles 36 miles each day and noticed that in previous elections there were lots of Trump signs but this time there are far fewer, and more for Harris. He goes on to say that many of his viewers have mentioned this too. He then refers to official statistics relating to absentee ballots in Pennsylvania, noting that Democrats have returned almost double the number of mail in ballots compared to Republicans. He concludes by saying that whilst this could just mean that Democrats are voting early and that the numbers will balance out on election day, it could also indicate a higher level of enthusiasm.
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Fred Wellman's Three Reasons Why Trump Will Lose
🎦 55:01-58:38⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss a video from Fred Wellman, host of the "On Democracy" podcast who explains the three reasons why he thinks Trump and the Republicans are "screwed". Jonathan notes that Wellman's Midas Touch channel is on the edge of being Democrat propaganda, but that he likes watching it. Wellman's three reasons are:
- Ground game: The Republicans have lost the ground game - Lara Trump [Trump's daughter-in-law] destroyed the RNC's previous efforts to build up their ground game, Trump has spent all his money on lawyers, and has relied on rallies and transphobic adverts. Traditional methods like door-knocking, phone banking and organising voter drives still matter. Jonathan adds that the RNC has outsourced their ground game operations to Elon Musk's SuperPac AmericaPAC who have then outsourced a lot of this work elsewhere. A lot of money has been wasted with some of the workers employed to door knock failing to do so and instead using the app to make it appear they are somewhere they are not. He notes that the decision to put Lara Trump and Elon Musk in charge was a mistake. By contrast, the Democrats are spending more money, and their ground game operation is working. Jonathan refers to another anecdotal comment he received from a viewer who lives in a traditionally Republican state who has been door knocked 4 times by Democrats and not once by Republicans.
- Closing Message: Harris and her running mate Tim Walz have a consistent message around key issues such as Trump's fascism, reproductive rights, and expanding Medicare, whereas Trump is inconsistent, having recently made negative comments about Michigan, America and Beyonce whilst his supporters like Elon Musk are saying things will get worse before they get better if Trump is elected. Jonathan notes that Elon Musk's admission is a surprising one. He refers to Trump's VP nominee Vivek Ramaswamy who he describes as a "fascist dipshit" who makes strange comments such as saying his wife is not white. Jonathan adds that Trump can't even get his wife Melania to be seen with him. By contrast, the Democrats have a unified message and are "running on all cylinders".
- Momentum: Harris is running successful rallies, gaining over 4 million viewers on Twitter alone. The Democrats have a strong team of supporters from celebrities to the Obamas and elected officials. By contrast, the Republicans are struggling, with poor attendance at rallies. Trump has been cancelling interviews, is often late for rallies, and is "rambling incoherently". Jonathan notes that Trump was 3 hours late for a recent rally because he was recording the 3 hour interview with Joe Rogan. He describes Trump as a "mentally ill idiot" who can't complete a thought. Jonathan notes that Trump is holding a rally at Madison Square Gardens in New York, a surprising location given he should be concentrating on swing states. He adds that Trump has failed to involve many local politicians, apart from Elise Stefanik, who is controversial. Jonathan summarises by saying that momentum is on the side of the Democrats.
Jonathan concludes by saying that he agrees with Wellman's assessment that the Democrats have a better ground game, a better closing message, and momentum. He also agrees that they have outspent the Republicans.
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Wrap Up
🎦 58:38-01:01:49⏩
Jonathan concludes by saying that the Democrats have momentum and are better organised, but wonders whether this will translate into votes. He notes that the national polls show that the race has tightened and the gap is now only 1.3%. He encourages people to vote early, explaining that this helps the ground game efforts as once a person has voted they can be removed from the list of potential voters to contact. Jonathan refers to a poll he ran on his YouTube community page which asked his viewers if they were voting Republican or Democrat and whether they were registered Republican, Democrat or Independent. He notes that 4 times as many Republicans are voting Democrat compared to Democrats voting Republican and almost 5 times as many Independents are voting Democrat. Jonathan concludes by saying that the key factor will be which way the Independents swing and how many Republicans vote for Harris. He encourages his viewers to share their views and refers to the lack of high profile Democrats endorsing Trump as a sign of things to come.
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