Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
"I actually made it 50 meters away from the coach to get back on a coach and uh and i fell down i had to be helped up by some guides who put me back on a coach so yeah the body took a battering"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel, explaining that this is technically the first part of his usual update (Hits and Losses) despite being uploaded second. He apologises for the delay, citing a busy day out that left him exhausted, recounting a humorous anecdote about needing assistance to board the coach due to his MS.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Figures: Russian Losses
🎦 01:09-03:23⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting the usual caveats about the data. Key figures include:
- 1,160 personnel lost, consistent with recent trends but potentially excluding losses from the Kursk offensive. He reiterates his view that POW figures should be included in casualty statistics and addresses viewer comments about this.
- 5 Tanks (fairly low).
- 17 Armoured Personnel Vehicles (average).
- 36 Artillery systems (lower than recent highs, but still twice the daily average).
- 1 Anti-aircraft warfare system.
- 59 Vehicles and fuel tanks.
- 5 Pieces of special equipment.
Jonathan speculates that Ukrainian equipment losses might be higher due to their offensive in Kursk, potentially impacting the overall equipment loss ratio. He ponders whether Russia's offensive capabilities across the frontline have diminished compared to two months prior.
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Andrew Perpetua's Oryx Loss Statistics
🎦 03:23-06:45⏩
Jonathan analyses losses using Andrew Perpetua's Oryx data, acknowledging it's already outdated but still provides valuable insights.
- He observes that Ukrainian losses are currently exceeding Russian losses.
- He attributes this to the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, likening it to the summer counteroffensive where they suffered heavy equipment losses.
- Jonathan questions whether Ukraine has learned from past experiences and improved their attack strategies to minimise losses.
- He examines specific Ukrainian losses: surveillance and comms equipment, an ANTPQ-50 radar system, a Lancet drone (potentially a decoy), and an Abrams tank.
- Jonathan observes significant losses in infantry fighting vehicles, particularly BTR-4Es, suggesting their prevalence in the Kursk region. Other losses include a German-provided Marder infantry fighting vehicle and a damaged Bradley.
- He notes a considerable number of Ukrainian APCs captured, abandoned, or destroyed, which is concerning for Ukraine. Damaged Humvees, a Stryker, an M113, a Senator, and captured/destroyed MRAPs are also reported.
- Shifting to Russian losses, Jonathan lists an older 9K33M3 Osa air defense system, surveillance and comms equipment, artillery, a couple of tanks, a few infantry fighting vehicles, MTLBs, and APCs. However, most of their losses consist of trucks, ATVs, and civilian vehicles.
- Jonathan emphasises that focusing solely on combat losses reveals a different picture, with Ukraine potentially losing equipment at a four-to-one ratio compared to Russia. He questions if Ukraine's attack strategies are effective despite acknowledging the expected higher losses for the attacking side.
Personnel Losses: Akhmat Units Decimated?
🎦 06:45-08:38⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of heavy losses amongst pro-Russian Chechen forces.
- Ukraine's 225th battalion claims to have "decimated" an Akhmat unit, providing ID documents of fallen Chechen fighters, including two commanders, as evidence.
- He clarifies the distinction between the Akhmat battalion (general fighters, many of whom are now Russian) and the Akhmat special forces.
- Jonathan highlights conflicting reports regarding the Akhmat's losses in Kursk. While some sources suggest significant casualties and potential captures, Akhmat leader Apti Alaudinov initially denied any captures but later admitted to some, claiming they were from the battalion and not the special forces.
Increased Russian POWs
🎦 08:38-09:07⏩
Jonathan addresses the increasing number of videos showing Russian soldiers being taken prisoner.
- A video by Bratchuk reveals thirty Russian soldiers surrendering.
- Commenters and other sources confirm a noticeable surge in Russian POW footage.
HIMARS Strike on Russian P-18 Radar System
🎦 09:07-11:05⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a HIMARS (or potentially M270 MLRS) strike on a high-value P-18 radar system, utilising expert commentary from Fabian Hoffman.
- Despite successfully destroying the target, the strike's accuracy is questioned.
- Hoffman suggests the missile's GPS guidance might have been jammed, forcing it to rely on its less accurate inertial measurement unit.
- The M30A1/A2 fragmentation warhead compensated for this reduced accuracy, as it doesn't require a direct hit to inflict damage due to its wide spread of tungsten fragments.
- Jonathan explains the concept of Circular Error Probable (CEP), highlighting that while a larger CEP allows for designation as a "precision-guided munition", accuracy remains crucial.
Ukrainian Jets Bomb Russian Command Post in Kursk
🎦 11:05-12:53⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from David Axe in Forbes claiming that Ukrainian jets participated in operations within Russia's Kursk Oblast, successfully destroying a Russian command post.
- Video evidence depicts a completely demolished building.
- Some sources suggest the targeted building served as the Akhmat command post, potentially explaining earlier reports of heavy casualties.
- Shifting to the equipment loss ratio in the Kursk offensive, Jonathan cites analysis from the Nalcio group (known for their work in the Robotyne region), revealing an interesting contrast.
- While Russian forces suffered five times more equipment losses than Ukrainian forces in the Robotyne/Orikhiv sector, the opposite is observed in Kursk, with Ukraine losing 29 pieces of equipment compared to Russia's 22.
- Despite this, Jonathan believes the losses are acceptable for an attacking force, especially considering the absence of extensive minefields and fortifications typically encountered in areas like Robotyne.
Russian "Turtle Tanks" Destroyed in Kharkiv Oblast
🎦 12:53-14:05⏩
Jonathan highlights footage showing the destruction of three Russian "turtle tanks" (improvised armored vehicles) by Ukrainian artillery in the Kharkiv Oblast, specifically in the Lyptsi area.
- He expresses surprise at the continued use of such vulnerable vehicles by Russian forces, noting they are still actively attacking in the region.
- He admits to not being fully up-to-date on frontline developments in areas like Turetsk and Novodarivka, which remain challenging for Ukrainian forces.
- He mentions claims of Russia redeploying troops from the Eastern frontline and Kharkiv to bolster their defenses in Kursk. However, these redeployments haven't significantly impacted the situation in Turetsk.
Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 14:05-15:49⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the occurrence of recent strikes but notes that his information might be outdated.
- Citing Tim White, he reports that 38 drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
- Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 30 of the drones, demonstrating a decent success rate, but eight drones and the ballistic missiles reached their targets.
- Limited information is available about the damage inflicted, but Jonathan mentions a Russian claim of hitting a military cargo depot in Odesa Oblast. The alleged target contained weapons and ammunition delivered from Romania. However, no visual evidence of an explosion has surfaced, even from pro-Russian channels in Odesa.
- On the flip side, Ukraine reportedly downed 14 drones in Russia, including 12 in Kursk, one in Belgorod, and one in Voronezh. These strikes align with Ukraine's efforts to disrupt Russian military activity.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Voronezh, Russia
🎦 15:49-17:22⏩
Jonathan reports ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Voronezh, Russia.
- Multiple explosions and at least one fire have been reported near the Baltimore airbase, which houses Russian strike aircraft.
- Local sources claim to have heard ten explosions.
- Videos depict low-flying drones and a fire near the airbase, suggesting successful strikes on Russian infrastructure.
- War Translator reports explosions continuing throughout the night in Voronezh and other Russian regions, indicating sustained Ukrainian drone activity and Russian air defense engagements. Military airfields and sensitive facilities are believed to be the primary targets.
- Explosions are also reported in Kurchatov, Kursk, and Zheleznogorsk, Kursk.
- A potential target in Zheleznogorsk is identified as the Mikhailovsky iron ore plant (GOK), previously attacked on March 6th.
Russian Propagandists Predict Major Ukrainian Offensive
🎦 17:22-18:07⏩
Jonathan shares insights from Russian sources.
- Russian propagandists are preparing their audience for a potential major Ukrainian offensive anticipated in late August or early September.
- Speculated objectives include severing the land corridor to Crimea and launching a large-scale F-16 strike on the Crimean Bridge.
- The Kinburn Spit is highlighted as an area of concern for Russia and a possible focal point in the coming weeks. Ukrainian forces have recently increased their attacks in the region.
Wrap Up
🎦 18:07-18:31⏩
Jonathan abruptly ends the video due to audio issues caused by his surroundings. He apologises for the shortened update, promising to cover the remaining information in the next Hits and Losses video the following morning. Regretfully, he also anticipates being unable to provide his usual Kursk update due to the persisting audio problems.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
I need to carefully follow the instructions and rules to accurately summarise this video transcript from ATP Geopolitics.
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