Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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"Is this evidence of culmination? Well actually if we go and look at the ISW preamble there is quite a bit of talk about that - the tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut appears to be slowing"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontlines for March 23rd, 2023. He notes it has been an incredibly quiet day along the entire front lines with not much happening. This could suggest the Russians are culminating their offensive or they are preparing for a bigger offensive, though this seems less likely.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Svatove to Kreminna
In the north-eastern sector from Svatove to Kreminna, there have been the usual claims of positional battles but no significant territorial changes. Pro-Russian sources claim no changes in the Starobelsk area of the front line. Rebar, a pro-Russian source, provided a very brief synopsis of yesterday's activities, highlighting how little has happened.
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Bakhmut
- Ukrainians have fought back a bit around the O0506 highway into Bakhmut, forcing Russians back in the field area
- Syriac map shows Ukrainians regaining some positions north of Khromove
- Russian sources claim to have cleared most of the industrial territory in northern Bakhmut (AZOM complex) but this is not confirmed
- Wagner group claims to have advanced in almost all directions in Bakhmut but provides no evidence. They estimate controlling 70% of the city
- ISW and other analysts suggest the tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut is slowing. Geolocated footage shows only marginal Russian advances
- Russians may be attempting to launch offensives in other directions like Avdiivka
- Bakhmut has been quieter in the last 48 hours which is good news for Ukrainians. Talk of a Ukrainian counterattack but this hasn't materialized yet
Avdiivka
- Ukrainians have pushed back Russians in the Stepove area which is important to prevent a dangerous Russian advance
- However, Russians have made some gains around Novobakhmutivka according to some mappers
- Geolocated footage shows a Russian convoy getting hammered by Ukrainians near Vodyane, within Russian controlled territory. ISW frames this as a "marginal Russian advance" which Jonathan disagrees with
- Overall a bit of back and forth around Avdiivka with no major changes
Zaporizhzhia & Kherson
- Not much new information about the Zaporizhzhia area. Some reports of Ukrainians penetrating Russian defences near Polohy but no details
- More activity reported along the Dnipro River and Kherson Oblast
- Ukrainians conducting clearing operations on the east bank of the Dnipro to protect the west bank from Russian shelling
- Ukrainians destroyed a Russian ammo depot on the Kinburn Spit
- Jonathan theorizes Ukrainians are systematically targeting Russian artillery with their longer range systems to degrade them and force them to pull back out of range of Kherson. Some evidence this is happening
Wrap up
In summary, it has been a fairly quiet day along the frontlines which could indicate the Russians are culminating their offensive. Alternatively they may be preparing for a push somewhere else but it's unclear what they have been doing the last two months if so, other than losing a lot of soldiers for little gain. Jonathan invites viewers to share their thoughts in the comments.
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