Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News, TVP Analysis

"Ukraine is an example of how prevalent drones have become. And that learning and the development of drones that has massively taken place over the last couple of years has now migrated to other places."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:06⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel, reminding viewers it's the second part of the update for the 27th of December 2023. He jokes about the slight delay being caused by him having to go off to eat more food - he felt a bit guilty as he's talking about the war from his warm home with a cup of tea and a full belly. Jonathan explains that he always feels a bit bad when he is happy because he knows that people are suffering in Ukraine - something his viewers can probably relate to! Before moving on to the news, he mentions Tim White's video about more evidence of Russian war crimes - this time it's a video, although the resolution is poor. Jonathan takes a noisy slurp of his tea!

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Russian War Crimes - 117th Mechanized Brigade

🎦 01:06-02:18⏩

The war crime involves the execution of surrendered Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Mechanized Brigade. Jonathan expresses his frustration with people who deny Russian war crimes, urging viewers to consider evidence like this. He highlights the ongoing nature of Russian aggression, referencing the situation in the Black Sea and the over 160,000 registered Russian war crimes.

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EU Aid for Ukraine

🎦 02:18-02:53⏩

Jonathan discusses the EU's efforts to put together a €20 billion backup aid package after Hungary blocked a larger €50 billion package intended to be delivered over four years. He expresses hope that the backup package will be approved and delivered to Ukraine quickly.

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Japan Delivers Mitsubishi Type 73 Vehicles to Ukraine

🎦 02:53-03:11⏩

The Japanese embassy in Kyiv has released photos of newly delivered Mitsubishi Type 73 vehicles which arrived on December 21st. Jonathan notes that Japan has offered continued support for the next year.

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China's 'Non-Military' Aid to Ukraine

🎦 03:11-03:29⏩

Jonathan compares Japan's aid to China's earlier delivery of 1,500 Desert Cross vehicles to the Ukrainian military which was classed as 'non-military' aid. He questions how this is possible, suggesting that the vehicles will be used by the armed forces regardless.

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UAE Delivers Ambulance Evacuation Vehicles

🎦 03:29-04:14⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has received its first batch of 23 ambulance evacuation vehicles from the UAE - something he had previously reported on. He highlights the urgent need for such vehicles, emphasizing the vulnerability of emergency services and hospitals to Russian attacks. Jonathan cites examples of such attacks, particularly those targeting hospitals near Kherson.

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German Aid from Leipzig and Berlin

🎦 04:14-04:52⏩

Jonathan reports that Kyiv has received a new batch of aid from the German cities of Leipzig and Berlin, as announced by Kyiv's mayor, Vitali Klitschko. The aid includes five fire and rescue vehicles from Leipzig and three Mercedes garbage trucks from Berlin. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of diverse support for Ukraine across various sectors.

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France Provides Grain Export Ship

🎦 04:52-05:10⏩

France has delivered a second ship to Ukraine to aid in grain exports according to the French Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune. Jonathan thanks France for their support.

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Germany's Record Arms Delivery Approval

🎦 05:10-05:47⏩

Germany has approved a record €11.7 billion worth of arms deliveries for 2023, with about a third of that (€4 billion) allocated to Ukraine. This represents a 40% increase from 2022. The German Ministry of Economy has indicated that the budget for arms supplies to Kyiv for the following year is projected to be €8 billion, signaling a further increase in German military support.

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Sweden to Scale Up Ammunition Production

🎦 05:47-06:19⏩

Jonathan reports that Sweden has announced plans to scale up ammunition production to replenish its own stockpiles and maintain supplies to Ukraine. He observes that this trend is being replicated by several countries that are replenishing depleted stockpiles while simultaneously increasing production to support Ukraine.

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Viewer Comment - Adrian Duncan (Australia Military Aid)

🎦 06:19-17:07⏩

Jonathan highlights a comment from viewer Adrian Duncan who commends his videos on military aid. Adrian's analysis focuses on the complexities of military aid, particularly how its true cost and impact are often obscured. Jonathan agrees with Adrian, emphasizing that the actual value of military aid often differs significantly from announced figures. He explains that providing obsolete or soon-to-be-decommissioned weapons is essentially costless, as these would have incurred disposal costs anyway. Using the example of the US, he illustrates how a $100 million weapons package might comprise equipment already slated for replacement, making the actual cost negligible. Jonathan acknowledges the political sensitivities surrounding military aid, noting that citizens might question spending on weapons instead of domestic priorities like healthcare. He reiterates that sending such weapons to Ukraine effectively represents a net zero cost, as those weapons systems were due for replacement anyway. He further explores how the provision of military aid generates economic benefits, including job creation, tax revenue, and increased demand for similar weapons systems from other countries. Jonathan then shifts to Adrian's analysis of Australian military aid. Adrian points out that Australia has donated A$910 million (US$620 million), largely comprising Bushmaster MRAPs (mine-resistant ambush protection vehicles), M113AFCs (armored personnel carriers), M777 howitzers, armored trucks, ammunition, and non-lethal aid. Adrian emphasizes that Australia benefits from showcasing its domestically produced Bushmasters in a real-world conflict scenario, attracting potential foreign buyers and stimulating job growth. He further notes that the M113AFCs, scheduled for discontinuation in 2024 due to obsolescence, gain valuable battlefield testing in Ukraine. Similarly, Australia's decision to produce the Korean howitzer under license effectively renders the M777 howitzer obsolete, creating domestic job opportunities that would have otherwise gone to the US if replacements were purchased from them. Adrian also delves into the financial aspects, highlighting that much of the non-lethal military aid came from surplus or existing stockpiles. While the transportation costs associated with using Australian Air Force aircraft are factored in, these represent sunk costs inherent to maintaining an air force. The deployment of a Wedgetail AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) plane and 100 personnel for six months, valued at A$100 million in aid, exemplifies how existing resources are leveraged. Jonathan underscores that the plane and its crew would have incurred similar costs if deployed elsewhere, making their deployment to Ukraine cost-effective. Adrian argues that the deployment of 90 training officers and non-commissioned officers (NCOs), while treated as a significant expense, provides substantial value due to their experience, further bolstering Australian military capabilities. He concludes by emphasizing that Ukraine primarily requires weapons and that Australia, despite its geographical distance, has a vested interest in supporting its allies against Russian aggression. Adrian suggests that if the US faced political roadblocks in providing further aid, Australia could potentially step in to supply Bradley tanks, M777 howitzers, and Bushmasters. Jonathan praises Adrian's insightful analysis, concurring that the true cost of military aid is often obscured by political maneuvering. He acknowledges the need to dissect these aid packages to expose the reality of the financial contributions, urging viewers to be critical of seemingly impressive figures that are often inflated. He reiterates the notion of sunk costs, arguing that personnel and equipment already maintained by governments should not be presented as additional expenses when deployed in support of Ukraine. Jonathan concludes by recognizing Adrian's insightful commentary and urging viewers to be mindful of the misleading nature of announced military aid figures, advocating for a nuanced understanding of the costs and benefits involved.

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Ukrainian Mine Clearance Drone

🎦 17:07-17:28⏩

Jonathan showcases an experimental Ukrainian mine clearance drone, the Ratel MD Mining. He acknowledges the growing significance of drone technology in modern warfare, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict.

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Russia Develops New 'Supercam' Drone

🎦 17:28-17:51⏩

Jonathan discusses Russia's development of a new aerial drone, the 'Supercam', designed for surveillance, reconnaissance, and kamikaze missions. This development, spearheaded by Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostec (a Russian industrial military conglomerate), underscores the increasing reliance on drone technology in modern warfare, mirroring the trend observed in Ukraine.

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Russia Imports Western Hunting Rifle Scopes

🎦 17:51-18:23⏩

Despite sanctions, Russia has imported $174 million worth of hunting rifle scopes from Western countries between 2022 and 2023. Many of these scopes, according to reports by iStories, are now being used by Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Jonathan highlights the existence of loopholes that Russia exploits to acquire essential equipment, even if not directly classified as military hardware.

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Germany - Michael Kretschmer

🎦 18:23-19:03⏩

Jonathan shifts the focus to geopolitical developments, beginning with Germany. He highlights the actions of Michael Kretschmer, the state premier of Saxony, whom he describes as one of Germany's most pro-Russian politicians. Kretschmer has advised Ukraine to accept territorial losses and pursue a peace deal with Russia. Jonathan invites his German viewers to share their perspectives on Kretschmer's stance, alluding to the historical context of Saxony's occupation by Russia following World War II.

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South Korea Bans Export of Aircraft Parts & Vehicles to Russia

🎦 19:03-19:57⏩

Jonathan reports that South Korea plans to ban the export of aircraft parts and larger vehicles to Russia in early 2024. He acknowledges South Korea's role as a significant exporter of technological components, many of which likely end up in Russia. This ban, encompassing 662 items, is part of South Korea's revised policy on dual-use goods—items with potential military applications. While acknowledging that restricted items often find their way to Russia through various channels, Jonathan hopes that this ban will make it more challenging and expensive for Russia to acquire necessary components.

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Turkey Approves Sweden's NATO Bid

🎦 19:57-20:39⏩

A Turkish parliamentary committee has approved Sweden's NATO bid, paving the way for a full parliamentary vote. This development suggests that Sweden's NATO accession might finally be secured after a prolonged delay due to Turkey's objections. Jonathan hints at behind-the-scenes negotiations involving the US, Turkey, and F-16 fighter jets. He speculates that the Turkish parliament might hold a final vote within the week to ratify Sweden's accession before the new year.

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Ukraine EU Accession

🎦 20:39-21:05⏩

Ukraine's EU accession process is estimated to take between six to eleven years, according to Martin Selmayr, the EU ambassador to Austria. Selmayr draws parallels with the accession timelines of Austria (six years) and Spain (eleven years). While Ukraine has made significant progress by implementing 70% of EU legislation since 2016, substantial work remains to be done. Jonathan expresses his admiration for Ukraine's accomplishments and mentions his hope to interview Ivana Stradner, an expert on the region, to discuss the situation further.

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Protests in Serbia

🎦 21:05-23:53⏩

Jonathan transitions to discussing the ongoing protests in Serbia against the government led by President Aleksandar Vučić. These protests, sparked by allegedly rigged parliamentary elections, highlight the struggle for democracy and against authoritarianism in Serbia. Jonathan emphasizes the strategic importance of Serbia, caught between its aspirations to join the EU and its historical ties to Russia. Vučić's government has attempted to balance these competing interests, portraying itself as a neutral intermediary. The protests have gained momentum with the participation of Russians who have fled Russia in opposition to the war in Ukraine. This development has alarmed the Kremlin, which fears that the protests could inspire dissent within Russia. Jonathan notes reports that the Kremlin is actively working to suppress the protests, echoing its playbook from previous uprisings. He further highlights the Serbian government's accusations of a Western-backed "color revolution," echoing Russia's narrative about the 2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine. Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels have circulated messages urging Russians in Serbia to refrain from participating in the protests, cautioning them that they are "strangers" and should avoid repeating the "tricks" of "professionals." These messages, intended to discourage dissent, also threaten potential legal repercussions for those who defy the warnings. Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the volatile situation in Serbia, suggesting that the protests could have broader implications for the region, particularly in the context of the struggle between EU and Russian influence. He expresses concern about the rise of nationalism in neighboring countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Montenegro, which could further embolden pro-Russian sentiments.

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Panama Canal Restrictions, Geopolitical 'Choke Points'

🎦 23:53-27:14⏩

Jonathan discusses the partial restrictions imposed on the Panama Canal, drawing a parallel to the geopolitical significance of the Black Sea, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean as critical trade routes. He argues that these "choke points" will become increasingly vulnerable in 2024, highlighting the Strait of Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca as potential flashpoints. He links this to the evolving nature of warfare, emphasizing the proliferation of drone technology and its potential to disrupt global trade. Jonathan posits that the Ukraine war has provided a stark demonstration of the effectiveness of drones, which are now being adopted by various actors, including non-state entities. He suggests that this shift towards drone warfare, characterized by its accessibility and affordability, poses a significant threat to global trade. Non-state actors, equipped with long-range drones, could potentially cripple vital shipping lanes, causing economic chaos. Jonathan uses the example of the Houthi rebels in Yemen, supported by Iran, who have demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains. Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the need to recognize the evolving landscape of warfare and its implications for global stability. He stresses that the interconnectedness of global trade makes it particularly susceptible to disruption, particularly as drone technology becomes more widespread and accessible.

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Wrap up

🎦 27:14-27:22⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, reminding them to like, subscribe and share his content.

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