Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"Zelensky said what's needed most are American Patriot missile defense systems and more artillery."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:25⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second part of his Ukraine War News Update for 29/03/2024. There is a lot to get through. He won't have time to cover the Geopolitics section in this video.

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Zelensky Interview with CBS

🎦 00:25-05:12⏩

Jonathan discusses Zelensky's interview with CBS news, noting how informative it was. Zelensky highlights the urgent need for Patriot missile defence systems and more artillery, emphasising that 5-7 Patriot systems would be enough to "unblock the sky" in Ukraine. Zelensky acknowledges the substantial financial support provided by the US but points out that much of this funding never actually reaches Ukraine directly. Instead, it goes to manufacturers and suppliers of military equipment, primarily based in the US. Jonathan supports Zelensky's assertion by explaining that a significant portion of this aid ultimately benefits the US economy, generating tax revenue and creating jobs.

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US Military Aid: ATACMS & Macro-Financial Stability

🎦 05:12-07:47⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential supply of ATACMS to Ukraine. The US had previously been reluctant to provide these longer-range missiles, citing concerns about depleting its own stockpiles. However, with the development of a new precision-guided munition intended to replace ATACMS, there is now a growing consensus that supplying ATACMS to Ukraine is no longer risky. Additionally, Ukraine and the US have signed a bilateral agreement to postpone Ukrainian debt payments, easing the financial burden on Ukraine and potentially freeing up funds for other needs. Jonathan speculates that this could be a way for the US to indirectly provide financial assistance to Ukraine, circumventing the current Congressional impasse on aid.

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US Congressional Impasse & Potential Impact on Aid

🎦 07:47-08:55⏩

Jonathan discusses the ongoing impasse in US Congress regarding aid to Ukraine, noting that the Easter recess will further delay discussions for at least two weeks. The Republicans' slim majority in the House of Representatives means they will need to cooperate with Democrats to pass any meaningful legislation. Otherwise, there is a risk of continued inaction and gridlock.

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Germany Military Aid

🎦 08:55-09:46⏩

Jonathan provides an update on Germany's latest military aid package for Ukraine. The aid includes various military equipment and vehicles, such as command vehicles, repair and recovery vehicles, ammunition, bridge-laying equipment, mine-clearing vehicles, mine ploughs, SATCOM staff, Zetros tankers, border protection vehicles, and infrared cameras. Germany also plans to deliver additional Marder infantry fighting vehicles and Patriot missiles. Jonathan acknowledges Germany's continued support for Ukraine.

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French & Danish Military Aid: CAESAR Howitzers

🎦 09:46-10:49⏩

Jonathan highlights the joint effort by France and Denmark to provide Ukraine with 78 additional CAESAR self-propelled howitzers. With this delivery, Ukraine's CAESAR fleet is expected to surpass 120, significantly bolstering their artillery capabilities. However, Jonathan raises important questions about the sustainability of such aid, specifically regarding barrel replacement for worn howitzers and the availability of sufficient ammunition. He emphasises that maintaining and supplying such a large artillery force will be crucial for Ukraine's long-term military success.

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French Aid: Kherson

🎦 10:49-11:29⏩

Jonathan acknowledges French efforts to provide aid to Ukraine. He mentions the Twitter handle "French aid from Ukraine" as a good source of information. He then highlights the efforts of Aid Medical Ukraine, which has delivered drinking water and emergency medical equipment to Kherson.

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Czech Republic: Artillery Shells Initiative

🎦 11:40-13:07⏩

Jonathan reports that Prague has successfully negotiated the supply of 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine, with deliveries expected to begin in April. This initiative, led by Czech President Petr Pavel, involves around 15 EU countries and potentially other nations like the UK and Canada. The estimated cost of the supply contracts is around €1.8 billion. The acceleration of the delivery timeline, originally planned for June, will allow Ukraine to utilise its existing ammunition stockpiles more freely, knowing that a steady supply is forthcoming.

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Canada Military Aid

🎦 13:07-14:37⏩

Canada has announced that it has exhausted its stockpiles of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles available for transfer to Ukraine. Defence Minister Bill Blair attributed this to the country's sustained military support for Kyiv, which has depleted its reserves. Jonathan notes that many countries, including Canada and the UK, maintained relatively small stockpiles during the preceding decades of relative peace, which have now been exhausted due to the ongoing conflict. This situation raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of military aid for Ukraine, as donor countries grapple with depleted stockpiles and the need to ramp up domestic production to meet both their own defence needs and Ukraine's requirements. Jonathan highlights criticism from Colby Badwar, a conservative commentator, who questions the Trudeau government's commitment to increasing ammunition production.

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Greece Military Aid

🎦 14:37-15:49⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has expressed interest in acquiring surplus Greek military equipment, specifically APG-68 radars and fighter jets, which Greece is looking to retire as it modernises its air force with new US-made aircraft. The potential sale involves several variants of F-16 fighter jets, Mirage 2000s, and F-4s. While a deal is not imminent, Jonathan suggests that even if the jets are not sold to Ukraine directly, some of their radar systems or components could still be provided. This highlights Ukraine's ongoing efforts to secure military aid and equipment from various sources.

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Ukraine: Drone Technology for Demining

🎦 15:49-16:40⏩

Jonathan discusses Ukraine's development and testing of new drone technology equipped with magnetometers and high-resolution orthophoto cameras for detecting explosive objects. This technology can create detailed photo maps, which are then analysed by AI algorithms to identify potential mines, including plastic mines that are difficult to detect with traditional methods. This development is significant as it promises safer and more efficient demining operations in Ukraine, where vast areas of land have been contaminated with explosives.

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Ukraine: "Come Back Alive" Charitable Fund - Mobile Command Posts

🎦 16:40-18:37⏩

Jonathan highlights the significant contribution of "Come Back Alive," a Ukrainian charitable foundation, in providing the Ukrainian Air Defence Forces with new mobile command posts (MCPs). Developed in collaboration with the Ukrainian military, these MCPs are built on four-wheel drive trucks and designed for self-sufficiency with complete energy and thermal independence. These mobile units serve as vital operational centres for coordinating air defence, enabling rapid decision-making and response to enemy threats, including missiles, drones, and aircraft. A total of 330 million hryvnias (approximately $8.4 million) was raised to fund the project, covering the cost of the MCPs and essential communication equipment. This initiative demonstrates the crucial role of private sector, state, volunteer, and charitable organisations in supporting Ukraine's war effort.

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Ukraine: Reduction in Mobilisation Requirements

🎦 18:37-20:37⏩

Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have significantly reduced their mobilisation requirements, thanks to an audit conducted by Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny. The audit revealed that a substantial number of troops had not been deployed to the front lines, leading to a re-evaluation of manpower needs. This reduction in mobilisation targets is a positive development for Ukraine, as it alleviates pressure on its economy and society while still ensuring sufficient troop levels for the war effort. Jonathan acknowledges the complex dilemma faced by Ukraine in balancing the need for military manpower with the potential negative impact of mass mobilisation on its economy and population.

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World Bank Loan to Ukraine

🎦 20:37-21:11⏩

Jonathan mentions that Ukraine has received a $1.5 billion transfer from the World Bank to support its budget spending on social and humanitarian needs and reconstruction efforts. This financial assistance comes as US aid remains stalled, demonstrating the role of international institutions in supporting Ukraine during the conflict.

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HIMARS & MLRS Systems Explained

🎦 21:11-25:11⏩

Jonathan takes a moment to clarify the distinction between different Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), acknowledging that he often uses the term "HIMARS" as a catch-all term for any MLRS used in Ukraine. He explains that while all MLRS platforms share the commonality of launching multiple rockets or missiles, they differ in their mobility, payload capacity, and specific features. Specifically, he differentiates between the American HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), which is wheeled and carries a pod of six missiles, and tracked variants like the M270, which can carry up to 12 missiles. The choice between these systems depends on factors such as terrain, mobility requirements, and desired firepower. He also explains the difference between unguided rockets, which are less accurate, and guided missiles that offer greater precision. Jonathan acknowledges his own tendency to use "HIMARS" broadly and humorously attributes it to "peak brain rot" from dealing with a vast amount of information.

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Russia: Drone Swarm Claims

🎦 25:11-27:14⏩

Jonathan discusses recent claims by Russian state media about the use of drone swarms in military exercises. He expresses scepticism about these claims, suggesting that the term "swarm" is often misused to describe any group of drones operating together. Jonathan, citing drone expert Samuel Bender, explains that true drone swarms operate autonomously with decentralised control, while the reported Russian exercises likely involved multiple operators controlling individual drones. This distinction is crucial as true drone swarms offer greater flexibility, resilience, and tactical possibilities in warfare.

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Russia: Military Recruitment & Economic Challenges

🎦 27:14-29:22⏩

Jonathan analyses Russia's struggle with military recruitment and its economic challenges. He states that to attract recruits, Russia has resorted to offering high military salaries, outbidding most civilian employers. This has led to wage inflation and increased the cost of the war for Russia. Additionally, Jonathan mentions numerous anecdotes about the Russian military failing to fulfil its salary promises to soldiers. This practice of promising but not delivering payment is likely to harm morale and create resentment within the ranks.

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Russia: T-62 Tank Refurbishment Issues

🎦 29:22-30:31⏩

Jonathan reports on the challenges faced by Russia's 103rd BTRZ tank refurbishment factory, which is struggling to meet its quota for refurbishing T-62 tanks due to a shortage of skilled labour and components. This shortage, exacerbated by sanctions and the ongoing war, highlights the limitations of Russia's military-industrial complex.

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Joe Bloggs YouTube Channel Hacked

🎦 30:31-32:12⏩

Jonathan expresses concern over the hacking and deletion of the "Joe Bloggs" YouTube channel, which provided economic analysis of Russia. He shares a clip from Joe Bloggs announcing the hack, the loss of thousands of videos, and his efforts to recover the channel. Jonathan sympathises with Joe Bloggs and highlights the vulnerability of online platforms to such attacks.

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Wrap up

🎦 32:12-32:49⏩

Jonathan makes a slightly tongue in cheek reference to viewers' comments about his previous comments which some may find offensive. He encourages viewers to check out his books if they are so inclined, including his book on Easter, "The Resurrection: A Critical Examination." Jonathan then signs off.

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