Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update

"It's not inconceivable that all of this area was taken by 20 people."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a frontline update for 30th December 2024. He notes that this update will cover the past four days and expects there to be significant movements. He also mentions that he will be busy with New Year's Eve celebrations the following day, so there might not be a video.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Map Key and Sources

🎦 00:39-01:56⏩
Before diving into the update, Jonathan reminds viewers about the map key and directs them to the on-screen guide if they need a refresher on what the lines and colours represent. He briefly mentions the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) latest report, stating there have been no confirmed Russian advances. He reminds viewers that a more concise version of the ISW's report is available on his website, ATPgeo.com.

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Kursk Oblast: Four-Day Frontline Changes

🎦 01:57-02:11⏩
Starting the frontline update with the Kursk Oblast, Jonathan points out that the map primarily shows red pins, indicating Russian improvements to their lines over the past four days. He notes a couple of blue areas, signifying Ukrainian gains, which he'll elaborate on shortly.

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Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Advances in the Northwest

🎦 02:12-03:34⏩
Jonathan focuses on the northwestern part of the Kursk Oblast, specifically around Malaya-Lokhnya, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance south and east to cut off Russian troops in the area. He highlights the Ukrainian pushback of Russian forces in Kroglenkoia, referencing both SORET and Grayskull maps that confirm this development.

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Kursk Oblast: Differing Map Interpretations & Minor Changes

🎦 03:34-04:18⏩
Jonathan acknowledges some discrepancies between Grayskull's and other maps regarding the extent of Ukrainian control east of Kruglenkoia. He speculates that the area likely consists of scattered houses and a road, making definitive control difficult to ascertain. Shifting to the eastern side of Kursk, Jonathan observes minor advances and adjustments favouring Ukrainian forces, describing it as a "tiny rejig" rather than significant gains. However, he expresses concern over Russian advances towards Makhanovka, putting pressure on the Ukrainian-held settlement of Sudia. Jonathan acknowledges that Ukrainian forces are facing challenges and losing territory in this eastern sector.

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Kursk Oblast: Viewer Commentary and Analysis

🎦 04:18-05:20⏩
Jonathan brings up a comment from viewer 'David D', who offers a more positive perspective on the situation in Kursk. David D argues that the Ukrainian presence in Kursk is strategically advantageous, forcing the Russians to divert troops and resources to defend their own territory. Jonathan acknowledges the validity of this viewpoint but expresses uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of the Ukrainian position given the casualties and equipment losses they are incurring.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Minimal Changes and Troop Movements

🎦 05:21-06:21⏩
Moving on to the Kharkiv Oblast, Jonathan notes that the situation around Vovchansk and Lipsy remains relatively static, with no significant changes over the past four days. He observes a minor change in Dvorichna, attributing it to the Russian presence west of the Oskil River. He questions whether Ukraine will attempt to push back Russian forces in this area, particularly around Pyshchany. Mentioning a recent news report, he highlights the capture of eight Russian soldiers by Ukrainian forces near Pyshchany, suggesting some level of Ukrainian resistance in the area.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian Advances and Map Discrepancies

🎦 06:21-09:12⏩
Transitioning to the Donetsk Oblast, Jonathan notes significant Russian advances near the town of Torske, with Suriyak Maps indicating near-total Russian control. He contrasts this with Andrew Perpetua's map, which does not yet reflect the same level of Russian control. Despite a change in Russian command, Jonathan reports minimal changes along the Siversk frontline. He highlights the static nature of the frontline, suggesting that both sides have established strong defensive positions, making significant advances difficult. He does mention a small Russian gain south of Verkhnokamyanske along a railway line. Turning to Chasiv Yar, Jonathan expresses some relief at the lack of major changes. He points out differing interpretations between Suriyak Maps, Andrew Perpetua and Grayskull regarding Russian presence in the area. He specifically mentions a discrepancy regarding Russian control of the northern part of Chasiv Yar, with Suriyak Maps showing significant Russian control, which both Perpetua and Grayskull dispute.

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Donetsk Oblast: Klishchivka & Turetsk

🎦 09:12-11:11⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Klishchivka area, noting significant Russian attacks. While lacking specific geolocation data, he suggests ongoing fighting near the canal. He also reports heavy Russian armored vehicle losses, indicating a costly Russian offensive that benefitted Ukrainian attrition efforts. In Toretsk, the situation appears bleak, with Andrew Perpetua suggesting the area is on the verge of falling under complete Russian control. Jonathan details significant Russian gains over the past four days, aligning with Suriyak Maps' existing assessment. He highlights the strategic importance of controlling Toretsk, as it gives the Russians a greater ability to cut off Ukrainian supply lines.

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Donetsk Oblast: Prokrovsk, Karakivka, and Russian Advances

🎦 11:11-14:00⏩
Jonathan notes Russian gains at Ozerne, expressing surprise that it took so long given its strategic importance for interdicting the T0504 highway connecting Kostyantynivka, Bakhmut, and Prokrovsk. He highlights a concentration of Russian activity south of Prokrovsk, with both Suriyak Maps and Andrew Perpetua showing substantial Russian advances in the area. Jonathan provides a detailed explanation of the differences in how the two mapmakers represent frontline changes using pink pins and colored lines. He emphasizes that despite using different methodologies, both Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps largely agree on the extent of Russian gains south of Prokrovsk. Continuing southwards, Jonathan observes complete Russian control of Krasnohorivka. He recounts a recent Russian attack on a building on the western edge of the town, signifying its imminent fall. With Krasnohorivka secured, Jonathan anticipates a Russian advance along a Ukrainian defensive line running east-west, targeting settlements like Hannivka and Uspenivka.

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Donetsk Oblast: Prokofiev's Importance and Zaporizhzhia Front

🎦 14:00-16:03⏩
Jonathan observes that the Ukrainian defence has, for the moment at least, managed to prevent further Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka. Despite this small glimmer of good news, Jonathan concedes that the situation looks bleak for the entire area, echoing military analyst Greg Tavry's assessment of the importance of Prokof’yev. Jonathan emphasizes Prokof’yev's significance as a logistical hub for Ukrainian forces. He explains that its capture by Russian forces would sever a crucial supply route, making it significantly more challenging for Ukraine to maintain its defensive positions in the region. The loss of the coking plant in Prokof’yev, essential for steel production, further underscores the strategic setback for Ukraine. He notes a minor adjustment around Kamyanske, speculating that it might be a map glitch rather than a genuine change in territorial control. Jonathan transitions to discussing Ukrainian advances south of the Zaporizhzhia reservoir. He reminds viewers that the reservoir's water level has receded significantly since the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam, using Google Maps to illustrate the difference between the reservoir's previous state and its current state.

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Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian Advances & Analysis

🎦 16:03-18:51⏩
Jonathan cites Greyskull's reports of Ukrainian advances in Zaporizhzhia, specifically the 141st Brigade's progress along route E105, with fighting now taking place 1.5 kilometers north of Luhove. He acknowledges the scarcity of positive news for Ukraine on the frontline but underscores the significance of these Ukrainian gains. Despite struggling against a numerically superior enemy, these advances demonstrate a resilience and strategic acumen that should not be underestimated. Jonathan provides context to the Russian advances, emphasizing that these territorial gains often involve small-scale engagements rather than large-scale offensives. He dispels the notion that vast numbers of troops are required to make progress in this landscape, emphasizing the tactical significance of tree lines and farm fields that can be exploited by small, mobile units. He argues that while Russian forces may be experiencing manpower shortages, they can still leverage these tactics to capture territory, particularly in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched thin.

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Wrap up

🎦 18:52-18:57⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers for their continued support.

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