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Analysing the Ukrainian Counteroffensive #2 & Further Thoughts

Saturday, 6th May 2023, 17:41
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"The only person showing signs that make me worried is Macron with his visit to China and his grossly unsuccessful message that Taiwan is not a European problem. Also his talk about the strategic autonomy of Europe which was a poorly chosen criticism of the US. China is not the right place to do this if you're going to do it at all. Macron clearly wanted to please the Chinese."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides an update on the potential Ukrainian counteroffensive, giving extra tidbits and nuggets of information to help viewers gain a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine.

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Success of the Russian winter offensive

  • The success of the Russian winter offensive was extremely limited, with only a 10-15km advance around Bakhmut and minimal gains elsewhere.
  • Ukrainian losses, while considerable, are likely many times smaller than Russian losses.
  • Ukraine has 15-20 brigades with over half a year of proper training in war conditions, a considerable force capable of achieving breakthroughs on certain fronts.


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Preparations for the Ukrainian counteroffensive

  • Systematic attacks on Russian fuel depots and railways are clear signs that a Ukrainian offensive is being planned.
  • Destroying railways will have a momentary impact as they can be repaired in 1-2 days, but will be important when Russia needs to urgently transport units to specific locations.
  • Ukraine may conduct disguised attempts to probe Russian defences and press in where weaknesses are found.
  • The biggest prize would be winning back southern Ukraine, severing the land link with Crimea. Luhansk and Kharkiv in the north are also options.


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Political context and China's stance

  • Western allies' support will likely hold as long as there is hope that the summer offensive will bring military success and liberate territory.
  • Macron's visit to China and comments on Taiwan and Europe's strategic autonomy are worrying and seem aimed at pleasing the Chinese.
  • Russian attempts to get more support from China have had limited effect. China is more likely to politically support Russia, but arms and technology assistance has been very limited.
  • Jonathan believes China will benefit more from Russia losing and may take advantage by helping themselves to Russian resources and territories.


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Difficult moments in the counteroffensive

  • The Ukrainian offensive will face challenges including open terrain, Russian minefields, lack of air support, and complicated logistics.
  • Minefields will be a significant obstacle, requiring specialised equipment to clear. Several types of anti-mine systems will help address this issue.
  • Liberating large cities like Tokmak and Melitopol will be difficult, with the latter likely to be heavily defended by Russian troops.
  • Limited air support from the Ukrainian Air Force will need to be compensated by HIMARS strikes and active use of barrel artillery.
  • Logistics will be central to the offensive, requiring prompt supply of shells, fuel, food, and spare parts. More trucks are vital.
  • Stockpiling ammunition is a problem that must be solved now, as Ukraine's own production cannot cover all requirements. A shortage of 155mm ammunition may be delaying the counterattack.


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Main stages of the counteroffensive

The counteroffensive is envisioned to have four main stages:

  1. Breakthrough and offensive to the line Vasilivka-Tokmak-Polohi (1 week)
  2. Fight for the initiative, slow advance, search for weaknesses, brutal battles (1 month)
  3. Breakthrough to the sea, advance to Melitopol and Sea of Azov, defeat remaining Russian units (2-3 weeks)
  4. Liberation of territory, pushing Russian forces off left bank of Dnipro, possible breakthrough to Crimea (weeks to months)


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Wrap up

The analysis presented is an imagining of how a Ukrainian offensive might go based on open data, not a definitive forecast. Reflections like this can be useful for understanding the basic elements of any future Ukrainian offensive, with locations, details and timings subject to change.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

No major parts of the transcript were unclear. Some specific place names may not be spelled 100% correctly but the key information is clear.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Watch for key topics and sections in the order they appear in the transcript Summarise each topic using the context from the transcript, adding any relevant opinions/insights from Jonathan Look out for any mentions of sources/credits and include them Note any parts of the transcript that are unclear Extract the most profound/insightful/important quote from the video Review the summary to ensure all key topics are covered and the information flows logically

ATP-AI-Bot

Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

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