Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"This it's this red line is really blurry so and russia can take advantage of that like i'm not criticizing the u.s here actually the opposite i'm obviously criticizing russia i'm actually completely sympathetic with how difficult a situation the u.s are in like it appears that russia can start pushing the envelope and ruining u.s equipment because they know that the u.s aren't going to declare war with Russia."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an overview of the topics he will cover in this two-part video update on the Ukraine war for 26 July 2023.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are slightly lower than previous days, with 460 liquidated personnel, 3 tanks, 5 APVs
- 22 artillery systems, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 1 Ka-52 helicopter, 16 drones, 17 vehicles/fuel tanks, 5 pieces of special equipment lost
- Despite lower numbers, there is an uptick in activity along the front lines, especially around Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia
Ukrainian vs Russian Equipment Losses
- According to Oryx, visually confirmed Ukrainian losses were 10 pieces of equipment vs 40 for Russia, a significant disparity
- Andriy Palamar counted 21 Russian to 11 Ukrainian losses from videos he saw
- Russians are losing a wide range of equipment including IFVs, tanks, artillery, air defense systems, radar, attack helicopter
- Footage shows a Russian Ka-52 helicopter being downed, likely by British-delivered Stormer HVM air defense systems
- Other videos show Russian air defense systems (Strela, radar) being destroyed near Bakhmut
Russian Artillery "Genocide"
- Lengthy post from mil-blogger "Bulba of Thrones" discusses the "genocide" of Russian artillery
- Ukrainian losses pale in comparison to Russian ones; while Western equipment like Bradleys can be replaced, Russian artillery cannot
- Crackdown on dissenting bloggers/military figures seen as preparation for bad news in the autumn; another "goodwill gesture" (retreat) predicted
- Asymmetry in precision-guided munitions noted; Ukraine has Excalibur shells with 35km range vs Russian Krasnopol with only 17km
Casualties and Cluster Munition Use
- A Ukrainian soldier was killed and several others, including a Deutsche Welle cameraman, were injured during a Russian cluster bomb attack in Druzhkivka near Kostyantynivka
- This undermines any Russian claims of moral high ground regarding cluster munitions, which they have used since the war began
Explosions and Fires in Russia
Jonathan shows footage of a large explosion of a commercial truck in Russia, questioning if it could be military-related given the war context and Russia's poor safety record. He notes such incidents seem to happen frequently in Russia compared to other countries.
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Storm Shadow Missile Use
- According to Thomas Theiner, over 125 British Storm Shadow missiles have been fired at Russian targets, with only 1 failing to identify its target and aborting
- This contradicts another of Putin's supposed "red lines" against long-range missiles
- Storm Shadow use has likely increased as Ukraine adapted more aircraft to use them; Crimea is being struck daily
Crimea Strikes
- Explosions reported at an ammunition dump in Yevpatoria and Krasnoperekopsk in Russian-occupied Crimea
- Sevastopol bay closed to traffic; helicopters and planes active, likely to avoid being hit on the ground
- Ukraine consistently targeting Russian logistics lines in Crimea
- Tokmak hit nightly by HIMARS as it is in range
US Drone Damaged by Russian Jet
- A Russian fighter jet deployed flares and severely damaged a US MQ-9 Reaper drone conducting anti-ISIS operations over Syria
- The drone's propeller was struck but the crew managed to recover it to base
- US called it a "reckless, unprovoked and unprofessional" action by Russia
- Jonathan argues this is a very serious, arguably act-of-war level incident that puts the US in a difficult position
- If a manned US aircraft was attacked it would mean war, but an unmanned drone creates a "blurry red line" Russia can exploit, knowing the US wants to avoid direct conflict
- He believes there must be robust diplomatic and sanctions consequences but is unsure of the proper response to continued Russian provocations
Russia Blockading Ukrainian Ports
- Russia accused of planting naval mines to blow up civilian ships and blame Ukraine, according to US diplomat
- A Russian patrol boat with naval mines was attacked, outcome unknown
- UK Defence Ministry states Russian Black Sea fleet has altered posture to blockade Ukrainian ports
- Russian corvette deployed to intercept commercial ships heading to Odesa and other ports
More "Doom-Posting" from Russian Mil-Bloggers
- With Girkin arrested, other mil-bloggers like "Mers" are expressing very negative outlooks
- Says Ukraine successfully pushing forward, destroying key Russian artillery
- Warns if this continues in late summer/fall, it will be "very difficult" as Russia runs out of trained troops
- Believes August-September will be tough; a Ukrainian breakthrough could be "catastrophic"
- Argues Russia needs to make Ukrainian advances as costly and slow as possible
- Despite pro-Russian stance, bloggers offering realistic criticism of the situation, worth paying attention to
Wrap up
Jonathan feels cautiously optimistic about reported Ukrainian successes and potential for breakthroughs in the south, while acknowledging Russian gains in the north. He will cover more details on the front lines in part 2 of the update.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No parts of the transcript were unclear to me. I was able to understand and summarize all the key points Jonathan made in the video.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Read through transcript, identify main topics/sections
Summarize each topic, providing enough context and relevant details
Use British English spelling and grammar
Include introduction and wrap-up sections
Highlight key quote
Format using provided XML structure
Review and refine summary