Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News, Info Space Analysis
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"Attention, Poland, Finland, Baltic states... Warsaw, Helsinki, Reval, Liepāja and the Baltics, these are all our lands and our people live there... We have to correct it and now that they have been made a wordless herd, trembling creatures, and we will change it by force of Russian arms. I do not believe in any diplomacy in this case."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologizes for the delay in posting this second part of the update, as real life sometimes gets in the way. He mentions having a cup of tea.
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Military Aid and Assistance to Ukraine
- Artillery ammunition is crucial for Ukraine's counter-offensive. NATO says the "bottom of the barrel" is now visible in terms of Ukraine's ammunition stocks. The US and allies are ramping up artillery production, but it takes time. South Korea could be key in backfilling stocks.
- A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected this week, but it's unclear if it will include ATACMS missiles. Jonathan hopes they are given a chance to prove their usefulness.
- Finland has allocated nearly €2 billion to Ukraine and is preparing another defence material package.
- Ukraine is keeping some transformer stocks abroad (in Poland and Romania) in anticipation of possible Russian shelling of energy infrastructure.
- Switzerland handed over the first of four demining machines to Ukraine.
- Antonov agreed with a French company to produce the Aroch Mal UAV in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian soldiers are training at a US Army base in Germany.
- Ukraine received two types of counter-drone jammers for installation on vehicles.
- Ukrainian inventors created an "invisibility cloak" for the army that blocks heat radiation to make soldiers invisible to thermal imaging.
Russian Military Aid and Mobilization
- Iran may soon conclude an agreement to transfer Fateh-110 and Zolfagah ballistic missiles (300+ km range) to Russia, which would be very problematic for Ukraine. Zelenskyy denies there are facts of this happening yet.
- Russian Defence Minister Shoigu claims he is satisfied with the amount of "fresh human resource" at his disposal and more are coming voluntarily each month. Dimitri from WarTranslated believes mobilization is still definitely coming, likely after the "fake" presidential elections to avoid public discontent.
Geopolitics
- The head of the Russian-annexed Zaporizhia region openly discussed plans to "return the subjects of the Russian Federation" like Poland, Finland and the Baltics "with the force of Russian weapons", saying he does not believe in diplomacy in this case. This is an alarming statement from a Russian administrative official.
- Lithuania opened a corridor for Ukrainian grain transit to Baltic ports, providing an alternative route to the Black Sea.
- An investigation found dozens of Estonian-registered crypto companies involved in massive fraud, money laundering, sanctions evasion and illicit financing of groups like the Wagner Group. Closing such loopholes could tighten sanctions on Russia.
- The Russian ruble is tanking, trading over 100 to the US dollar. Billions from the Russian budget are going to prop it up to no avail.
- The European Parliament approved revisions to the EU budget including provisions for a €50 billion special Ukraine fund. EU Council President Charles Michel supports Ukraine's EU accession by 2030.
- H&M reopened stores in Ukraine, a sign that insurers deem Kyiv and Lviv safe enough. Meanwhile, Burger King remains open in Russia despite claiming it would exit.
US Politics and Ukraine Aid
In a stunning first, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted in a 216-210 vote after working with Democrats to keep the government open rather than risk a shutdown. Some Republicans wanted to use a shutdown to force spending cuts. McCarthy's removal leaves uncertainty about continued US aid to Ukraine, as his potential replacements have mixed track records on the issue according to a "report card" from the group Defending Democracy Together. In the Senate, leaders promised to take up legislation soon to ensure continued Ukraine support. President Biden called on McCarthy and Republicans to keep their word about holding a standalone vote on Ukraine funding as promised. The White House said there is obvious bipartisan support to continue funding Ukraine. The outcome of the Speaker vote and Ukraine aid package remains to be seen.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes there is an awful lot of content to cover as so much keeps happening in the news. He jokingly suggests watching at 1.5x speed to glide over his "ums" and "ahs" like a pro ice skater. He signs off wishing everyone well.
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