Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News, Putin Speech Analysis
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"In my opinion this is the biggest piece of news today right and because it confirms it fully verifies everything I've been saying about the information bubble that Putin lives in and it goes to show uh that garbage in garbage out you end up making bad decisions if you've if you've got bad intel and Putin has bad intel"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest Ukraine war update news for June 15, 2023. He begins with the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 580 liquidated Russian personnel, a slight uptick from the previous day
- 12 tanks and 14 APVs (infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, MRAPs) taken out, an increase
- 10 artillery systems and 1 MLRS lost
- 1 helicopter, 9 drones, 3 cruise missiles downed
- 24 vehicles and fuel tanks hit, an uptick as Ukraine targets Russian logistics
- 3 pieces of special equipment (electronic warfare, etc.) eliminated
Oryx Visually Confirmed Losses
- Oryx released figures for June 13 showing 51 Russian losses over 4 days
- Ukrainian losses were 58 over the same 4-day period, but this included some losses from over a year ago, skewing the numbers
- Difficult to directly compare the figures, but the 4:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses seen previously may no longer hold
Situation in Storyshevy
Reuters reported on footage from Storyshevy, one of the first villages taken by Ukraine in their counteroffensive, showing a road littered with Russian corpses and destroyed armored vehicles.
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Analysis of Russian Loss Trends
Using data visualizations created by viewer Dell (link in description), Jonathan analyzes trends in Russian losses:
- Personnel losses spiked at the start of Ukraine's counteroffensive but have since decreased
- Tank losses also increased but have fallen in recent days
- APV losses show a marginal recent uptick
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems have seen a steep increase in losses as Ukraine targets these ahead of the counteroffensive
Incidents and Attacks
- Friendly fire incident where a Russian soldier killed 5 of his colleagues, possibly indicating morale issues
- Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar stated Russia is losing 5 times more troops than Ukraine on the southern front
- HIMARS strike near Kremlin led to hundreds of Russian casualties; targeted troops gathered to hear a speech by a commander known for previous failed assaults
- Chechen commander Adam Delimkhanov reportedly severely injured in a separate HIMARS strike on a recreation center in Primorsk
- Overnight cruise missile and drone attacks on Ukraine; 1 cruise missile and 20 drones shot down, some hits reported in Odesa and other areas
- Crimea attacked by 9 Ukrainian drones overnight per Russian claims; 6 shot down, 3 jammed, 1 detonated causing window damage
- Donetsk and Krasnodar also hit by Ukrainian attacks
Frontline Update
- Ukrainian assault operations north of Bakhmut near Rosalivka, Krasnopolivka, Berkivka and Yehidne were successful per Ukraine's General Staff
- Fighting continues in Zaporizhzhia near Novopokrovka and Novopokrovka
- Russians engaging in tactically sound defense in the south due to assignment of more competent generals, making Ukrainian advances difficult
- Deputy Minister of Defense Maliar states Russia losing 5 times more troops than Ukraine in the south, but both sides are on the offensive and defensive in different directions
- Slow Ukrainian advancement due to heavy mining and fortifications; some argue this is intentional to draw in and attrit Russian reserves before a major thrust elsewhere
- Russians forced into defensive operations along the entire southern front in the last 24 hours per Ukraine's General Staff
- Much Russian equipment being captured by Ukraine, appearing to be higher quality than seen previously; POWs also being taken
- Some Ukrainian equipment losses shown, but appear recoverable in many cases
Putin's Information Bubble
In a meeting with pro-Russian military bloggers, Putin admitted to hearing about problems facing Russian units for the first time, confirming the information bubble and bad intel Jonathan has frequently discussed. This leads to poor decision making.
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Other News
- Lada car manufacturer asking to recruit prison inmates due to labor shortages from mobilization and citizens fleeing
- Further confessions from a Russian army unit about their involvement in blowing up the Kakhovka dam
- Reservoir near Enerhodar has been significantly drained, but would still be very challenging for Ukraine to attack across
Military Aid
- Another Ramstein meeting being held with 50 countries to discuss Ukraine's defense needs; fighter jets expected to be a main topic
- US requesting 155mm artillery shells from Japan to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine
- Switzerland agreed to decommission and sell 25 Leopard 2 tanks to Germany's Rheinmetall to backfill tanks sent to Ukraine; still needs Senate approval
- Netherlands to purchase 4 Vera-EG passive radar surveillance systems for Ukraine for €150 million
- Netherlands prepared to start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in the coming months
- 33 nations currently training Ukrainian troops at 40 locations
- Estonia allocating €457,000 to help Ukraine with consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction
Geopolitics
- Protest in Georgian parliament against the ruling Georgian Dream party's growing alignment with Russia
- Two Russians arrested for flying drones over the Swedish parliament
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their time and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He plugs viewer Dell's Excel spreadsheet and asks others to share it. He signs off until the next frontline update video.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information for each topic discussed in the video, in the order they appear
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Use bullet points or numbered lists to separate topics
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Final review to ensure all key points are covered
