Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"If you are doing a deal over Ukraine and Russia, and trying to get the best for Ukraine, you don't do this. If you're trying to get the best for Russia, you do do this. And this is either he is doing a good deal because he wants Russia to get as much out of the war in Ukraine as possible, in which case he's completely compromised, and that's a real problem. But if he's genuinely trying to get the best for Ukraine, then this is terrible deal-making. If he's kind of neutral, doesn't really care, it's still terrible deal-making."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan introduces the video as the final Ukraine news update for the day. He mentions that he has already posted a comprehensive Syria update and encourages viewers to watch it. He also expresses his desire to provide a frontline update soon but will have to postpone it until the next day due to not feeling well.

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Asylum for Assad and family in Russia

🎦 00:13-00:50⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Syria, clarifying the rumours about Assad's disappearance. According to Russian sources, Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow and have been granted asylum by Russia. Jonathan highlights that this information is according to TASS, the Russian state-owned news agency.

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Impact of fall of Assad regime on Russian operations in Africa

🎦 00:50-03:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread from "Tender" that explains how the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria could negatively impact Russia's operations in Africa. Russia has a business model of propping up dictatorships in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the Central African Republic. Wagner, the infamous mercenary group, receives lucrative deals for mining operations, especially gold and blood diamonds, in exchange for Russia's support. Russia has always relied on Syrian bases, specifically mentioning the Khmeimim Air Base, to fly out riches and fly in mercenaries. Without this logistical hub, operations in Africa will become more difficult and expensive. The thread suggests that this could give African people a new chance to rid themselves of Russian influence, similar to what happened in Syria. Jonathan adds that it will be fascinating to see the direct impact of the Syrian regime's fall on Russia.

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Possible Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline project

🎦 03:42-04:47⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from Oliver Alexander, who suggests that the Russian economy could be hurt in the long term if the new Syrian government decides to restart the Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline project. This could be one of the reasons why Turkey has been involved in supporting some of the rebels in northern Syria. A potential Turkey-Qatar pipeline could be another nail in the coffin for Russia, as it would lose revenue due to alternative gas pipelines. Jonathan notes that it will be a long time before anything concrete happens, given the chaos in Syria.

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Robert Fico's comments on Ukraine

🎦 04:47-05:10⏩
Jonathan discusses Robert Fico, the Slovakian leader, who he says is propped up by the Russians. Fico has stated that a "good Munich" is being prepared for Ukraine, which will be very painful for it. Jonathan expresses his disapproval of Fico's increasingly anti-Ukraine stance and calls him a "wingnut."

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Romanian Orthodox Church warns of pro-Georgian political parties mobilising people

🎦 05:10-06:29⏩
Jonathan reports that the Romanian Orthodox Church has warned that several pro-Georgian political parties planned to send members to parishes throughout the country to mobilise people and organise street movements against Romanian state institutions. However, it appears that no one came out in protest for Georgian. Jonathan shares a photo of Georgian politician Calin Georgescu, highlighting his small stature and noting that his call for people to come onto the streets was unsuccessful. Jonathan is hopeful that Georgescu is now a thing of the past, and that Romania can look forward to free and fair elections.

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Georgian government crackdown on protesters

🎦 06:29-09:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation in Georgia, stating that the government has taken a hardline approach against protesters. Instead of water cannons and tear gas, the Georgian government has deployed groups of armed thugs, known as "Titushky," to target politicians, activists, and journalists. Jonathan mentions that these groups were also used in Ukraine during the Euromaidan protests in 2013 and 2014. He shares footage of these groups attacking journalists and operating live on air, as well as assaulting protesters who then require medical treatment. Jonathan expresses concern about the violence and the lack of protection for members of parliament.

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US Embassy in Kyiv issues warning to US citizens

🎦 09:08-09:44⏩
Due to increased threats from Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukraine's critical civilian infrastructure, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has urged U.S. citizens to exercise heightened caution. Jonathan mentions rumours that an Kh-22 (transliterated from Russian as Erechnik, although the correct spelling would be Kh-22) missile that was sent into Dnipro might be sent against Kyiv. He notes that actions taken by the U.S. Embassy are often a result of intelligence or direct communication from the Russians, suggesting that there is something to be worried about.

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Polish Foreign Minister comments on ending the war

🎦 09:44-10:11⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who said that Russia's war will conclude when Russian President Putin recognizes the invasion as a mistake and accepts that his goals were unattainable and that there is an unacceptable cost. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about whether this will happen.

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Trump's attendance at Notre Dame Cathedral reopening

🎦 10:11-10:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral and Trump's attendance at the event. He notes that Trump has been meeting and speaking with many foreign dignitaries, both in the U.S. and at the cathedral, which could be a violation of the Logan Act. However, Jonathan expresses confusion about Trump's role, as he is the president-elect but has not yet officially started his term.

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Trump's meeting with Zelensky and cognitive dissonance

🎦 10:41-15:09⏩
Jonathan mentions that Zelensky received a round of applause when he entered Notre Dame Cathedral, and wonders if this might have irked or made Trump jealous. He notes that Trump was wearing a blue suit and yellow tie, which is unusual as he typically wears a red tie. Jonathan shares that he had an idea for a video about cognitive dissonance and Trump's unwillingness to admit he's wrong, which stems from advice he received earlier in life. He is interested in the psychology of how Trump deals with information that contradicts his previous position and how his followers will react if he changes course on Ukraine. Jonathan also wonders if Trump's inherent inability to admit he's wrong will prevent him from helping Ukraine as much as he might want to. He mentions that Zelensky met with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Paris and likely tried to meet with as many people as possible.

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Macron persuades Trump to meet with Zelensky

🎦 15:09-16:54⏩
According to reports, French President Macron spent several days convincing Trump to agree to a meeting with Zelensky, and the decision for trilateral talks was made at the last moment. This suggests that Trump may have been reluctant to meet with Zelensky. The meeting lasted about 45 minutes, and Zelensky described the talks as productive, thanking Trump for his decisive stance. Jonathan also mentions a comment from JNK, who is not a fan of Elon Musk, suggesting that Musk was "short-circuited" by being in close proximity to Zelensky and inside a church. Jonathan concludes that this meeting is not something Putin would like to see, especially in the shadow of Syria falling.

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Trump's statement on immediate ceasefire and negotiations

🎦 16:54-19:20⏩
Jonathan refers to a statement made by Trump, which he analysed in a previous video. He believes the statement was problematic for several reasons, including cheap political digs and the disclosure of information that Zelensky had shared with him in confidence regarding Ukrainian casualties. Jonathan suggests that this disclosure might give credibility to Zelensky's claims about the official number of Ukrainian losses. However, Jonathan's main concern is that Trump called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations, which he believes is not in Ukraine's best interest. He argues that the focus should be on keeping pressure on Russia, both economically and militarily.

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Zelensky's reaction to Trump's statement

🎦 19:20-23:13⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's reaction to Trump's statement, particularly Trump's claim that Zelensky wants an immediate ceasefire and deal. Zelensky clarified on Twitter that only around one in ten of Ukraine's war casualties have died, stating that 43,000 have been killed in action on the battlefield since the start of the full-scale war. He also mentioned that approximately half of the soldiers wounded in action later return to the battlefield. Jonathan highlights that this is a significant statement from Zelensky and questions whether he is trying to qualify what Trump said. He suggests that Zelensky may have shared the casualty figures with Trump in confidence, making it more likely that the figures are accurate. Zelensky also emphasised the need for a just peace and stated that the war cannot be ended with just a piece of paper and a few signatures. Jonathan interprets this as a corrective to Trump's statement.

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Trump's interview with NBC

🎦 23:13-24:57⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's interview with NBC, where Trump said he will try to end the war "if I can." Jonathan sees this as a potential shift in Trump's position, or at the very least, an admission that his previous statements about ending the war in a day were either lies or irresponsible bombast. He argues that promising to stop the war in a day if it is unattainable is functionally lying and deeply irresponsible, especially when it is used to get votes. Jonathan expresses his frustration with the normalisation of lying and irresponsible rhetoric in politics.

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Trump's potential cut in military aid to Ukraine

🎦 24:57-28:07⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's statement that Ukraine might not receive as much military support under his administration, which he sees as another example of a potential change in trajectory. He finds it incredible that Trump has gone from saying no aid to Ukraine to now saying there might be less aid. Jonathan explains that the use of the modal "might" suggests a higher probability of Ukraine receiving the same amount of aid. He speculates about the psychological effects and mechanisms at play, particularly regarding how Trump and his followers will deal with this potential shift. Jonathan contrasts his own view with that of Jane Keefe, who sees Trump's statements as setting up Russia to rearm and do it all again in two years. While Jonathan acknowledges that Trump will likely try to force Ukraine into a peace negotiation, he believes that the possibility of continued military aid is better than he initially expected.

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Analysis of Trump's deal-making ability

🎦 28:07-30:45⏩
Jonathan criticises Trump's deal-making ability, arguing that Trump is giving away Ukrainian land and leverage by signaling a reduction in U.S. aid to Ukraine before getting any kind of agreement from Putin to even negotiate. He explains that this is terrible deal-making because it weakens Ukraine's position at the negotiating table. Jonathan states that if Trump is genuinely trying to get the best for Ukraine, then this is terrible deal-making. If he is neutral, it is still terrible deal-making. Jonathan emphasizes that you should not lay your cards on the table and give any hint about what is going on. He uses the analogy of an "anchor bias" to illustrate how Trump's statements have lowered the starting point for negotiations, making it more difficult for Ukraine to achieve a favourable outcome. Jonathan expresses his anger and frustration at Trump's actions, arguing that they are detrimental to Ukraine's interests.

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Trump's comments on NATO

🎦 30:45-32:23⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's statement that under his presidency, the United States will not stay in NATO unless other member countries allocate more funds to the alliance. Jonathan points out that many countries are already doing more than the U.S. in terms of percentage of GDP, both in terms of overall defence spending and support for Ukraine. He argues that if NATO is an organisation to counter Russia, and aid to Ukraine is countering Russia, then aid to Ukraine should be included in defence spending as a percentage of GDP. Jonathan agrees that some nations need to pay more and help Ukraine more, but he believes that Trump does not understand or take into account the contributions of countries that are already doing more than the U.S.

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Clip of Trump interview

🎦 32:23-33:16⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from an interview with Trump where he is asked about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump claims that he is actively trying to end the war but says he has not spoken to President Putin recently. However, when pressed, he becomes evasive and says he does not want to say whether he has spoken to Putin since being elected, as he does not want to impede negotiations. Jonathan finds this response dodgy and suggests that it could be undermining the current U.S. president. He also points out that Trump has backtracked from his earlier claim of ending the war in 24 hours to now saying he will "try to end it."

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Zelensky's comments on a just and strong peace

🎦 33:16-33:54⏩
Jonathan shares Zelensky's statement that he wants a just and strong peace that the Russians will not destroy in a few years. Zelensky mentions Russia's attempts to conquer Georgia, its actions in Moldova, and its military presence in Africa for the purpose of destabilisation. He argues that an effective peace with Russia must include effective guarantees of peace, with Jonathan adding that NATO Article 5 is the obvious answer.

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Russian propagandists' focus on Zelensky's attire

🎦 33:54-34:53⏩
Jonathan notes that Russian propagandists are focusing on Zelensky not wearing a suit and tie, rather than discussing the situation in Syria. He mentions that Trump advisor Roger Stone, whom he calls a "Russian simp," also criticised Zelensky's attire as disrespectful to the American people. Jonathan dismisses these criticisms, saying "get over yourself" to both Stone and the Russian propagandists.

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Wrap up

🎦 34:53-35:37⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by saying he needs to rest and drink more tea. He thanks viewers for their support and mentions that he will give shout-outs to those who have helped out on PayPal and Buy Me a Coffee later in the week.

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