Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"War is where nothing happens until everything happens all at once."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a detailed frontline update for 16 September 2023. He notes there is not much to add from his morning news update. The video will go into more detail for those interested. Jonathan reminds viewers to check what the lines on his map represent.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast Sector - Kupiansk to Kreminna
According to Russian sources cited by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has made some gains near Novoheirovka, west of Svatove. They attempted to move towards the Oskil River near Borova but were pushed back by Ukraine, before regaining some territory. Other Russian sources claim they crossed the Oskil River near Novy Milinsk, but this is disputed. Ukrainian spokesperson Yevlesh stated there were no Russian attacks in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction for two days. The situation remains unclear with conflicting claims from different sources.
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Bakhmut Area
The key developments are around Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade announced they liberated Andriivka and destroyed much of the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, with the rest surrendering. This is supported by the former commander of the 72nd Brigade being unable to contact his troops. Russian sources acknowledge their tactical situation is deteriorating. Some claim Ukraine controls Klishchiivka while others dispute this. The Russians are likely to be pushed back to Opytne in the south. There is significant evidence of Russian losses in equipment and personnel in this area.
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Avdiivka and Marinka
Avdiivka has been uncharacteristically quiet in the last 24 hours according to Andrew Perpetua, which is significant given the usual intensity of fighting. The ISW reports some Russian claims of fighting north of Opytne and Nevelske, and south of Marinka, but no significant progress. The decrease in activity is noteworthy for this historically active front.
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Southern Donetsk - Vuhledar Area
Return to top⤴️Ukraine has made gains along the Shaitanka River northwest of Novomayorsk, with video evidence confirming they crossed the river and took positions. Russian sources claim the intensity of Ukrainian attacks has decreased. Not much activity is reported around Velyka Novosilka as Ukraine focuses on attriting Russian forces with long-range fires while waiting for the right moment to advance.
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Zaporizhzhia Front - Robotyne Area
Ukraine continues to take positions south of Robotyne over the past four days, advancing along Russian trenches on the edge of Vobove. Progress is slow due to extensive Russian mining, which can take a day to clear 50 square meters. Meanwhile, Russia is reinforcing fortifications further back around Tokmak. The question is how well manned these defensive lines will be. Jonathan shares the perspective of Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK tank commander, who believes there will be a "dam breaking" moment like in Kosovo where slow attrition suddenly leads to rapid advances. However, the timing depends on various factors like Russian stockpiles and troop availability.
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Kherson-Dnipro River Area
Russian sources express concern about limited Ukrainian crossings of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast to consolidate positions on islands and near the Antonivsky Bridge for a future attack on the left bank. The ISW assesses Russia likely lacks the manpower to defend against a significant assault, having transferred troops to Zaporizhzhia. One blogger noted Russia's inability to conduct their own river crossing due to lack of artillery shells. This could be a weak point in Russia's defences that Ukraine may exploit if they mass troops and equipment at the right time and place.
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Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the frontline update, noting not a huge amount of new developments but hopefully enough information to understand the current and potential future situation. He appreciates viewer support and wishes everyone a good Saturday.
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