Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News, Russian Ship Sunk
Table of Contents 📖
"Professionally and methodically, Ukraine is winning the Battle of the Black Sea."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan Pearce welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - the first part of the Ukraine War Update for 14th February 2024. He notes that this update will focus on geopolitical news and that he will be providing an update on military news in a separate video. He begins with a potentially very important breaking news item: Ukrainian sources are claiming that another Russian ship has been sunk off the coast of Crimea in temporarily occupied Ukraine.
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Russian Warship Sunk off the coast of Crimea
🎦 00:27-02:06⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been multiple reports/footage circulating of an explosion off the coast of Katsyveli in temporarily occupied Crimea - an ammunition store on a Russian Warship blew up and sank. There are a number of videos and pieces of evidence to piece together. Russians are claiming that 6 drones were destroyed/intercepted but Jonathan points out that if these drones were intercepted by a ship, then it's not a good look for the Russians. This news comes at a time when the Ukrainians are facing significant challenges in places such as Avdiivka. He notes how "professionally and methodically, Ukraine is winning the Battle of the Black Sea". Jonathan shows footage from a number of sources.
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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock: West Must Not Underestimate Support for Ukraine
🎦 02:06-03:14⏩
Jonathan reports that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has warned that Russia should not underestimate Western support for Ukraine, emphasizing that Europe will continue to provide support for as long as it takes. She has suggested that greater coordination between Poland, France and Germany would enhance this support. Jonathan welcomes these comments particularly in light of the challenging situation on the front line in Ukraine which is facing severe equipment shortages. He is reassured by the comments and is hopeful that the rhetoric will be backed by action. He believes that Europe is beginning to realise how serious the situation is and that Germany is showing leadership in this respect.
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Baltic Nations: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added to Russian wanted list
🎦 03:14-05:24⏩
Jonathan expresses his disbelief that the Russian Interior Ministry has placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on their wanted list. The Media Zona publication has leaked a full database of the Russian Interior Ministry, revealing this information - the first time that Russia has opened a criminal case against the current head of a foreign state. The list also includes other high-ranking officials from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Jonathan believes that this move will backfire spectacularly for Russia as it will only serve to galvanise support for Ukraine in these nations. He uses the example that an Estonian, regardless of their domestic political views, will be angered by Russia's actions, unifying support for aid to Ukraine and condemnation of Russia. Jonathan concludes that these actions go against Russia's interests and welcomes news like this as he knows it will have a positive impact for those fighting against Russian imperialism.
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US Politics: Senator Mitt Romney - "If we fail to help Ukraine, Putin will invade a NATO nation"
🎦 05:27-06:24⏩
Jonathan pivots to US Politics. Having previously highlighted concerns about the actions and rhetoric of Republican politicians in the Senate and House of Representatives who are repeating Russian propaganda, Jonathan praises those Republican Senators who are not - Senators Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney. Jonathan plays a clip of Senator Romney (who ran against Obama for President) in which he states that "We're not being asked to send American troops into war only to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. If we fail to help Ukraine, Putin will invade a NATO nation. Ukraine is not the end. It's a step. And letting Putin have his way with Europe would jeopardize our security". Jonathan describes this as "Good stuff" from a "decent, somewhat old-school Republican politician".
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US Politics: House Speaker Mike Johnson Rejects Ukraine Aid Bill
🎦 06:24-08:45⏩
Jonathan reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson has preemptively rejected the $95bn Ukraine Aid bill. The bill, which includes funding for Israel, humanitarian support for Gaza, and assistance for regional partners in the Indo-Pacific has already passed through the Senate with 70 votes to 29 - a result that 29 Republican senators voted against. Jonathan is astonished by this decision and the fact that Johnson won't even consider it. He notes that Johnson is in a difficult position and that his seat would be at risk if he did put the bill forward and that this is a clear example of self interest. He goes on to explain the breakdown of the $95Bn bill which includes:
- $60bn to Ukraine
- $14bn to Israel
- $9bn to humanitarian support - this includes Gaza which Jonathan finds interesting as it is a way of appeasing both sides (Israel and Palestine).
- $5bn to assist regional partners in the Indo-Pacific
Jonathan concludes by highlighting how Elon Musk opposes this bill and describes this as "absolutely terrible". He expresses his disappointment and concern at Musk's recent actions and states that his opinion of him is now "very firmly" in the negative. He goes on to highlight how Elon Musk's recent activities including his use of Twitter spaces to platform anti-Ukraine activists, Senators and commentators, for example Vivek Ramaswamy, all point to Musk being a Putin apologist.
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US Politics: Media Narratives - Biden vs Trump
🎦 08:45-11:58⏩
Jonathan expresses his concern and bewilderment about the media narratives surrounding the US Presidential elections. Trump has stated that he would not come to the aid of Europe if Russia were to attack a NATO member if Europe doesn't pay up. Jonathan points out that this is effectively the death of NATO and that the US would no longer be a world leader. Rather than highlight this incredibly dangerous rhetoric, the media is focusing on Biden's age and gaffes. Jonathan uses the example of a headline from the New York Times: "Which is Worse? Biden's Age, or Trump Handing NATO to Putin?". He is furious with what he sees as false equivalence and that the media has "utterly lost the plot". He sarcastically asks "What is wrong with you" to the New York Times before listing Trump's flaws: "delusional, is inviting Russia to invade our allies, incited an insurrection, faces 91 felony charges and is a sexual abuser".
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US Politics: NY 3rd Congressional District - Special Election
🎦 11:58-13:58⏩
Jonathan reports on the special election that took place in New York's 3rd congressional district to replace George Santos who was ousted. This was a seat previously held by a Democrat (Suozzi) that saw a massive swing to the Republicans during the mid-term elections which many thought would result in a Republican "red wave". Although this failed to materialise nationally, with the Republicans failing to make the gains they were hoping for, the Republicans were successful in a number of districts in New York. The result of this election saw the Democrat candidate win by 8% - a significant margin. Jonathan believes that this could be an indication of how the 2024 election will go and act as a warning shot to the Republicans to reconsider their position on issues such as supporting Ukraine.
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France: Russia to increase disinformation campaign
🎦 13:58-15:11⏩
Jonathan reiterates that a French Foreign disinformation watchdog has announced that it had detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany and Poland ahead of the one year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He adds that Kremlin documents show that Russia has been intensifying its effort to undermine French backing for Ukraine at a time when Marine Le Pen's "France Rally" party is riding high in the polls. Jonathan issues a warning to the French people that Russia will attempt to amplify Le Pen's voice and to be aware of the manipulation that is coming from the Kremlin.
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In brief: Poland border crossing, Russian exports, Estonian Intel, FSB
🎦 15:11-18:06⏩
Jonathan rounds up the rest of the geopolitical news in brief:
- Checkpoints on the border between Poland and Ukraine are blocked with queues of 1250 trucks - Donald Tusk is trying to fix this.
- Russian exports fell by almost a third in 2023 and exports to Europe fell by 68%. There has been a significant increase in exports to Asia (72% in 2023 compared with 49% in 2022) - a real shift in Russia's economy. Much of this is being forced into currencies such as Yuan and Rupees which are not as liquid as the US dollar.
- The Estonian Intel annual report assesses that the Kremlin is anticipating a possible conflict with NATO in the next decade. They believe that Russia will significantly increase their military presence on the Estonian border over the coming years but note that in the short term they do not have the capability to increase production of new armoured vehicles, instead relying on refurbished vehicles from storage to compensate for the losses in Ukraine. Estonian Intel believes that the longer the conflict in Ukraine continues, the more internal political tension in Russia will deepen, but that they are likely to retain control throughout 2024.
- The Estonian Intel report also noted a marked shift in Russia's policy towards Israel in 2023. Having previously maintained a neutral stance, Russia has begun to take a more anti-Israel position on the Palestine question.
- Western institutions who interact with Russian academics and think tank experts who hold moderate views (by Western Standards) should be aware that these interactions will be reported to FSB counterintelligence. Jonathan provides the example of an FSB agent Pukhov who regularly informs his handler about his contacts with Western diplomats and citizens. He highlights that this is not new and that the situation in Russia remains largely unchanged from the Soviet era when the KGB followed a similar practice.
- Jonathan, reading from the Estonian Intel report, notes with amusement that "EFIS has a sense of humor in their report. For those who prefer not to find their names and images alongside those of Russian intelligence officers in our publications, we extend an invitation to get in touch. We are confident that mutually advantageous arrangements can be negotiated". Jonathan concludes that this is a clear indication that Russia is now "just a newer iteration of the Soviet Union".
Wrap up
🎦 18:06-18:14⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He signs off, reminding viewers that the sinking of the Russian ship is potentially very important news.
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