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Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News

News🔷Hits and Losses🔷Geopolitics🔷Military Aid Thursday, 30th March 2023, 09:48
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"This is an absolute travesty of reaching your objectives for Russia."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides the latest Ukraine War News Update for 30th March 2023. As the end of March approaches, the question is how close Russian forces have come to taking the Donbas, as Putin had tasked them.

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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Ukrainian released figures for Russian losses

  • 560 liquidated Russian personnel (lower than recent weeks, reflecting culmination of Russian forces)
  • 60 attacks across the frontline (amongst lowest seen in months)
  • 1 tank, 8 APCs, 12 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 11 vehicles/fuel tanks, 3 pieces of special equipment
  • Losses indicate explicit targeting of artillery and equipment, possibly in advance of Ukrainian counter-offensives


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US assessment of Russian losses

  • According to UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, latest US assessment puts Russian troop casualties at over 220,000 killed or injured since start of invasion
  • Significant jump from UK intelligence estimate of 175-200,000 casualties (including 40-60,000 killed) in February
  • Reflects difficult month for Russians, with culmination and huge casualties


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Ukrainian counter-offensive plans

  • Counter-offensive unlikely to be imminent, as equipment and training still needed
  • Ben Wallace states "considerable amounts of training to go" before Ukrainian forces ready to use British tanks
  • Tanks to be operated alongside German infantry vehicles in combined arms to punch through Russian lines
  • Ukrainian leadership needs to train in fighting at brigade/battle group level in "NATO manner"
  • Counter-offensive likely in April/May timeframe once ground conditions, training and equipment in place


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Overnight attacks and explosions

  • Significant explosion of Russian position, possibly JDAM or UR-77 mine clearing line charge
  • Powerful explosions and fire in Russian-occupied Kherson region
  • Strikes on airbase in occupied Crimea and Belgorod within Russia
  • Large gas pipeline fire in Lodz region of Russia after explosion, no casualties reported
  • Russians struck 92 Ukrainian settlements overnight with artillery, missiles, aviation; 48 infrastructure sites hit


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Military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine

  • Slovakia increasing artillery ammunition production from 30,000 to 150,000 rounds per year
  • Spain to provide 6 refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks after Easter; tanks being fitted with reactive armour
  • US Stryker vehicles with mine rollers en route to Ukraine via Germany and Poland
  • Croatia to supply 14 Mi-8 transport helicopters
  • Finland sent 1,000 baby care packages; Germany provided fire engine to Zaporizhzhia
  • Lithuania provided 36 mobile homes for displaced Ukrainians
  • Germany to send €12 billion in military aid (€3.2B in 2023, €8.8B credit for 2024-2032)
  • Japan allocated $470M humanitarian aid package for demining, debris removal, infrastructure


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Geopolitics and ramifications

  • Russian Central Bank reported record loss of 721.7 billion rubles (US$9.3B) for 2022
  • Sanctions, reserve losses, lack of international currency transactions impacting Russian economy
  • No new civilian aircraft orders by Russian companies since March 2022; airlines refurbishing decade-old planes
  • Russia added Hungary to list of "unfriendly countries" as relations sour
  • Finland expected to join NATO within a week of Turkish ratification; Sweden still delayed


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Wrap up

Jonathan notes that Putin's original objectives for the war have all resulted in the opposite outcome - Donbas war-torn, more Nazis in Ukraine, NATO expanding. It's an "absolute travesty" for Russia in reaching their goals. Finland and Sweden joining NATO will be very beneficial given their capable militaries. Like, subscribe and share for more updates!

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