Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is not free. Russia is not democratic. Russia is a dictatorship. Putin is a dictator. I don't know I don't know that you need any more evidence than this war, everything we've seen in this war, and all the electoral shenanigans taking place right now in Russia, and really over the last 20 years."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Christmas Eve Eve edition of ATPG and reminds viewers that the General Staff figures can be found in the video description. He also reminds viewers (and pro-Ukrainian voices in particular) to check the caveats in the video description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:29-02:21⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian General Staff figures, pointing out that 1040 personnel lost in a single day is a heavy loss for the Russians. He caveats this with the reminder that these figures should be considered trend-line indicators and highlights that Western analysts such as Ben Hodges suggest taking 20 off the personnel figures to get a more accurate picture. In particular, Jonathan highlights the losses of 17 tanks, 28 APVs and 36 artillery systems as significant. Jonathan acknowledges that there will have been Ukrainian losses too and speculates that these are likely to be based on a ratio that is beneficial to Ukraine, in the same way that Ukrainian strategy in Bakhmut tied down Russian troops, despite heavy losses on both sides.
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Krinhy
🎦 02:21-03:19⏩
Jonathan refers to military analyst Andrew Perpetua's assessment of fighting in Krinhy, where Ukrainian losses, particularly from a medical evacuation perspective, appear to be heavy, although likely to be based on a ratio that is beneficial to Ukraine. Jonathan estimates that Russian equipment losses in Krinhy are somewhere between 100 and 150 pieces of equipment.
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Ukrainian Counteroffensives
🎦 03:19-03:59⏩
Jonathan reports that there are a number of counteroffensives taking place including in Sienkiewka in the north, Nowa Michalivka, Stepova and around Terny, where Ukraine have lost three Stridsvarn 122s (the Swedish variant of the Leopard 2A5).
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Analysis of Russian Equipment and Vehicle Losses
🎦 03:59-04:22⏩
Jonathan analyses the significance of the loss of 36 Russian artillery systems, describing it as "a huge day of artillery degradation" and also highlights the loss of 51 vehicles and fuel tanks, describing this as phenomenal. The loss of six pieces of special equipment is also significant, as these are likely to include important intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment.
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Three Russian Su-34 Fighter Bombers Shot Down
🎦 04:22-07:12⏩
Jonathan reports on the downing of three Russian Su-34 fighter bombers, which he covered in a Breaking News Extra the day before, and speculates on the reasons behind it.
- He highlights the significance of these aircraft, each equipped to carry four FABs (glide bombs), in targeting Ukrainian positions, particularly in Krinhy.
- Jonathan analyses the differing Russian narratives surrounding the incident, including suggestions of friendly fire, a Ukrainian MiG-29 incursion and the involvement of F-16s.
- He suggests that attributing the downing to F-16s, while highly unlikely, plays into the Russian narrative better than acknowledging the effectiveness of Patriot air defence systems, drawing a parallel with the Bryansk incident where a Patriot system took down five aircraft.
Rebar - F-16s Operating in Ukraine?
🎦 07:12-08:21⏩
Jonathan discusses claims by Russian source "Rebar" that a fleet of up to 12 combat and three training F-16s are already operating within Ukrainian territory, with a further fleet expected by mid-spring. Rebar also claims that high-precision parts for these aircraft were delivered throughout December, citing the targeting of Ukrainian airfields in December as evidence of this. Jonathan casts doubt on Rebar's claims and reiterates his view that it is highly unlikely that F-16s were involved in the downing of the three Russian Su-34s.
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Tendal Analysis of the Downing of Three Russian Su-34s
🎦 08:21-09:06⏩
Jonathan cites analysis from German source "Tendal", who believes that while more information is needed, the downing of the Su-34s is likely genuine and draws parallels with the Bryansk incident, where the Ukrainian Air Force confirmed responsibility and the use of a MIM-104 Patriot system.
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Tendal Analysis of Krinhy
🎦 09:06-10:01⏩
Jonathan continues his summary of Tendal's analysis of the downing of the Su-34s, suggesting that the incident highlights the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defence systems, particularly given the use of improved FAB-500 missiles by the Russians, which have a range of over 50km, are difficult to defend against and give Russian aircraft a (false) sense of security.
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Patriot Missiles
🎦 10:01-12:19⏩
Jonathan continues his analysis of Tendal's report.
- Tendal suggests that Ukraine likely deployed the latest MIM-104 Patriot battery, possibly the latest one from Germany (the PAK-2 variant, which has a range of at least 160km) to target the Russian aircraft.
- He highlights the significance of this, pointing out that it extends the zone in which Ukrainian air defences can operate. Jonathan cautions that such deployments necessitate swift relocation to avoid Russian targeting.
- Jonathan shares imagery purporting to show the contrails of three Patriot missiles targeting Russian aircraft and cites a Russian source lamenting the loss of the three Su-34 aircraft.
- He also shares a post from pro-Russian Telegram channel "Fighter Bomber", which regularly posts about the activities of the Russian Air Force, in which the author acknowledges the risks involved in operating in the area, contradicting previous assertions that Russian aircraft were operating with impunity.
- Jonathan concludes that the incident highlights that even with limited supplies, Ukraine is able to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces and that Russia's strategy is reliant upon Western nations ceasing support for Ukraine.
Importance of Ukrainian Air Superiority
🎦 12:19-13:25⏩
Jonathan agrees with Tendal's analysis and highlights the importance of Ukraine gaining air superiority, to enable it to have a greater effect on the frontline and support its troops more effectively.
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Patriots Near the Frontline
🎦 13:25-14:15⏩
Jonathan describes the use of Patriots near the frontline as "super important" and something that should have happened sooner. He refers to analysis from Andrew Perpetua, who highlighted that following Ukrainian strikes on Berdyansk and Luhansk, Russia retaliated with waves of fighter bombers targeting Dnipro and speculates on how effective the Patriot system could have been in that situation.
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Evidence of Patriot Missile Use
🎦 14:15-15:46⏩
- Jonathan shares a tweet from OSINT analyst O'Sinturi showing evidence (contrails) of what is believed to be three Patriot missiles that took down the three Su-34s.
- He then shares confirmation of the incident from a Russian source, acknowledging the loss of the three Su-34s and offering condolences to the families of the aircrew.
- Jonathan also highlights that the same Russian source had previously warned of the dangers of carrying out operations in the area.
Su-34 Losses
🎦 15:46-17:22⏩
Jonathan reports that each Su-34 costs around $36 million, representing a total loss of $130 million for Russia. He also points out that Russia will struggle to replace experienced pilots. Jonathan highlights that the Su-34 is a relatively new aircraft, only entering service in 2014. Of the 155 built, 25 have now been destroyed in Ukraine, representing 16% of the total fleet.
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F-16s in Ukraine - Romanian Involvement?
🎦 17:22-17:31⏩
Jonathan discusses speculation, from both Ukrainian and Russian sources, that F-16s promised to Ukraine may have already arrived, citing evidence of training flights taking off from Romania. He also reports on recent threats from Russia to bomb NATO airbases used by F-16s, suggesting that this is a tactic designed to stoke fear in the run-up to the 2024 elections.
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JDAM Strikes in Kherson
🎦 17:31-18:12⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian Air Force strikes on Russian warehouses in Kherson using JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) - guided glide bombs. He highlights the significance of this as JDAMs have not been used widely, possibly due to supply issues or, as Jonathan speculates, because Russia has been able to jam them. He welcomes their reappearance, describing it as "really good".
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Tea Break!
🎦 18:12-18:15⏩
Time for a cup of tea!
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Drone Warfare and Interception Rates
🎦 18:15-19:13⏩
- Jonathan reports that Ukraine claims to have shot down nine out of nine drones launched by Russia - a 100% interception rate.
- He highlights that interception rates have improved significantly in recent months, suggesting that averages that include data from the beginning of the war are less useful than data from the last two to three months.
Ukrainian Drone Capabilities
🎦 19:13-20:18⏩
Jonathan highlights the diversity of Ukrainian drone designs, citing examples such as the UJ-22 Skyline, which has a range of at least 400km. He illustrates this by showing a graphic depicting a number of different drones.
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Explosions in Berdyansk
🎦 20:18-20:34⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions in Berdyansk, a port city on the coast of the Sea of Azov, suggesting that while Russia claims to have shot down six drones, there are reports of explosions across the city, with a focus on the railway station.
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Explosions in Crimea
🎦 20:34-21:13⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions in Armyansk and Chornomorsk in Crimea, suggesting that these may be targeting Russian S300 and S400 air defence systems, before reporting on further explosions and air defence activity in Kerch and Jankoy and the closure of the Kerch Strait Bridge.
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Sevastopol on Air Alert
🎦 21:13-21:32⏩
Jonathan reports that Sevastopol is also on air alert.
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Importance of Long-Range Warfare
🎦 21:32-22:05⏩
Jonathan welcomes the number of attacks on Russian positions, reiterating the importance of Ukraine striking Russian positions using long-range weapons, such as missiles and drones, rather than engaging in man-to-man fighting.
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Fake Russian Airline - Southwind Airlines
🎦 22:05-23:19⏩
- Jonathan reports that a German tabloid newspaper has revealed that Russia has created a fake airline, Southwind Airlines, to transport illegal immigrants to Europe via Belarus.
- Citing evidence from the publication Built, he suggests that while the airline is supposedly based in Antalya, three of its aircraft and the majority of its employees are from Moscow-based Nordwind Airlines.
- Jonathan highlights that Nordwind Airlines is owned by Pegas Touristique, whose owners are Russian with Turkish roots.
- He concludes by linking this with recent direct flights that have opened between Istanbul and Minsk, suggesting that Russia is collecting migrants in Turkey, transporting them to Belarus and motivating them to cross the border into Europe in an attempt to destabilise European nations.
Rodent Infestation on the Frontline
🎦 23:19-25:07⏩
- Jonathan reports that both Ukrainian and Russian troops are suffering from a significant increase in rat and mice infestations, which are affecting morale and damaging equipment.
- He suggests that the mild autumn and the abundance of food left fallow due to the fighting have contributed to this, with rodents now seeking shelter in vehicles and defensive positions as the weather turns colder.
- Jonathan highlights the risk posed to military equipment by rodents gnawing through cables, drawing upon his own personal experience of a hamster to illustrate this point.
- He concludes by stating that there are also unverified reports of increased sickness in Russian units, which some believe is linked to the rodent infestation.
Ukrainian Mobilisation
🎦 25:07-27:24⏩
- Jonathan reports that according to the New York Times, Russia has seized the initiative on the battlefield and that Ukraine needs more military personnel.
- He suggests that this is why Ukraine is looking to increase mobilisation, citing a report from Nexta News that Estonia is willing to extradite Ukrainian refugees of fighting age back to Ukraine to bolster the Ukrainian Army.
- Jonathan highlights the difficulties involved in compelling Ukrainian citizens living abroad to return to fight, particularly given that according to international law, Ukraine is unable to conscript citizens living in other countries.
Ekaterina Dantsova Barred from Standing in Russian Presidential Election
🎦 27:24-29:19⏩
- Jonathan reports that journalist Ekaterina Dantsova has been barred from running in the Russian presidential election, supposedly due to mistakes in her application.
- He describes her decision to run as "ballsy" given the likelihood of repercussions for anyone challenging Putin and highlights the irony of Russia, a country that does not uphold freedom of speech, criticising other nations.
- Jonathan mocks the patronising response of the head of the Russian Central Election Commission to Dantsova's rejection.
Russia - Not a Democracy
🎦 29:19-33:20⏩
- Jonathan opines that Dantsova's barring from the election and Russia's actions over the last 20 years, including changing the law to allow Putin to rule indefinitely, show that Russia is not a free or democratic country, stating that Putin is a dictator.
- He criticizes pro-Kremlin trolls for their use of "whataboutery" when challenged about Russia's lack of democracy.
Whataboutery
🎦 33:20-34:27⏩
- Jonathan explains the logical fallacy of "whataboutery" (also known as "whataboutism").
- He uses the example of someone accused of murder attempting to deflect by pointing out that the accuser also committed murder the previous week to illustrate the fallacy.
- Jonathan argues that the use of whataboutery is a distraction tactic and uses the example of pro-Kremlin trolls deflecting from criticism of Russia's lack of democracy by pointing to events such as the January 6th Insurrection.
- He concludes by arguing that such comparisons are irrelevant and calls upon pro-Kremlin trolls to explain and justify how Russia can be considered a democracy.
Wrap Up
🎦 34:27-34:33⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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