Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Do you think of every single person that was on that beach when the air defence missile blew up or whatever it was that exploded above the beach and then landed in the water and on the beach injuring some, killing some, I think. Those people, all of them would have been phoning their relatives and friends and putting stuff on Facebook and whatnot that night."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG update on the Ukraine War for July 19th, 2024. He notes the unusually hot weather in Ukraine and speculates on its impact on frontline activities.
- Record-breaking heatwave in Ukraine, making fighting conditions challenging.
- Speculation that heat might be causing a slowdown in offensive operations.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Personnel and Equipment Losses
🎦 01:20-05:46⏩
Jonathan reviews reported Russian personnel and equipment losses, drawing comparisons to previous figures and highlighting trends:
- Russian personnel losses dip below 1,000 for the first time in weeks, down to 980.
- Five Russian tanks lost, a slight decrease.
- Artillery system losses remain high at 55.
- Significant number (76) of Russian vehicles and fuel tanks lost.
- Ukrainian equipment losses include artillery pieces (three M109s, one Bohdana), tanks, a BMP-2, a Bradley APC, and a Kirpi MRAP.
- Increased presence of Lancets in Ukrainian losses is a concern.
- Overall, higher number of combat losses for Russians compared to Ukrainians.
Incidents in Mariupol
🎦 06:02-07:11⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of unrest and unusual incidents in Mariupol, a city under Russian occupation:
- Reports of 12 Russian soldiers dying from arsenic-poisoned watermelons.
- Mentions cultural clashes on a beach involving Chechen and Russian forces.
- Notes previous attempts to poison Russian soldiers with contaminated water.
Kharkiv Offensive Loss Assessment
🎦 07:27-09:21⏩
Jonathan analyses data from military analyst "Nelsio" regarding losses in the Kharkiv region, emphasizing the importance of context when evaluating casualty figures:
- 118 confirmed Russian equipment losses and 62 Ukrainian losses in the ongoing Kharkiv offensive.
- Ukrainians have managed to reverse the initial trend of higher Ukrainian losses compared to Russian ones.
- Russian Lancets and reconnaissance drones are proving effective in Kharkiv.
- Loss of a Ukrainian radar system acknowledged as a setback.
Analysis of the Ukrainian Withdrawal from Krinky
🎦 09:21-12:21⏩
Jonathan addresses public reaction to reported Ukrainian personnel losses in Krinky, arguing that the operation was a net positive success:
- Clarifies that reported Ukrainian losses in Krinky represent nine months of operations, not a single event.
- Emphasizes the need to consider the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian losses when assessing the operation's success.
- Cites Nelsio's data showing 58 Ukrainian equipment losses versus 271 Russian losses in Krinky, a ratio of approximately 5:1.
- Believes the operation was a strategic success for Ukraine despite the sacrifices made.
Russian Ka-52 Helicopter Downed by Friendly Fire
🎦 12:21-13:05⏩
Jonathan discusses a confirmed incident of a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter being shot down by friendly fire from a Uragan MLRS:
- Incident occurred while the helicopter was filming the MLRS firing.
- Confirmed by Russian sources associated with military aviation.
- The helicopter crew was killed in the incident.
Russian Soldier Injured While Mishandling Munitions
🎦 13:11-14:54⏩
Jonathan recounts an incident where a Russian soldier was seriously injured while trying to dismantle munitions using an axe, urging caution when dealing with explosives:
- A video circulated online showing a Russian soldier hitting an explosive device with an axe.
- The device detonated, causing severe injuries, reportedly including the loss of a hand or arm.
- Jonathan strongly advises against handling explosives in such a dangerous manner.
Russian Drone Attack on World Central Kitchen Vehicle
🎦 14:54-16:56⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian drone strike targeting a clearly marked humanitarian aid vehicle belonging to World Central Kitchen:
- The vehicle was attacked near Oleksandrivka.
- Thankfully, no injuries were reported.
- Jonathan condemns the targeting of humanitarian aid workers, emphasizing their vulnerable position in conflict zones.
- He also stresses the need for humanitarian organizations to prioritize the safety of their personnel.
Russians Hiring Ukrainians for Arson Attacks
🎦 16:57-17:38⏩
Jonathan discusses a concerning trend of Russian forces recruiting marginalized individuals in Ukraine to carry out arson attacks:
- Russians are using messengers and the dark net to recruit perpetrators, promising payment for setting fire to vehicles.
- Arson attacks have been reported in Kharkiv, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and particularly in Odesa.
- Russian propaganda attempts to portray these attacks as the work of a pro-Russian underground movement.
- Ukrainian authorities have apprehended several perpetrators.
Overnight Drone Attacks on Russian Regions
🎦 17:38-19:53⏩
Jonathan reports on relatively quiet overnight activity, with limited information available on drone attacks in Russian regions:
- Two Russian regions and occupied Crimea were reportedly attacked by drones.
- Russian sources claim all 11 drones targeting the Kursk region were shot down.
- Three drones were reportedly shot down in Belgorod, and five over Crimea and the Black Sea.
- Injuries and damage to residential buildings in Kursk and Belgorod were reported.
- An explosion in Russian-controlled Luhansk city resulted in a large plume of smoke, suggesting a significant target was hit.
- Limited information is available on the success or failure of these drone strikes.
Scholz Rejects Zelenskyy’s Call for NATO Intervention Against Russian Missiles
🎦 19:53-22:12⏩
Jonathan discusses German Chancellor Scholz’s rejection of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s call for NATO to shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine:
- Scholz stated that such actions are “out of the question” and that the US has been clear in its opposition to such a move.
- This statement was made during Zelenskyy’s visit to the UK, where he addressed the British Cabinet.
- Jonathan speculates on the influence of the US on this decision, highlighting a potential divergence of views between European leaders and the US.
EU Calls on Russia to Accept Responsibility for MH17 Downing
🎦 22:12-23:41⏩
Jonathan highlights the EU’s call for Russia to accept responsibility for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on the 10th anniversary of the tragedy:
- The EU reiterated its demand for Russia to acknowledge its role in the downing of MH17 and cooperate with international justice efforts.
- This call comes after the conviction of three individuals, including Igor Girkin, in absentia for the war crime of downing MH17.
- Jonathan expresses his belief that Russia’s continued denial of responsibility for the incident is telling.
Tourism in Crimea Declines Due to Safety Concerns
🎦 23:41-25:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the decline in tourism in occupied Crimea, attributing it to concerns over safety and the ongoing conflict:
- Ukrainian intelligence reports a mass cancellation of trips to Crimea by Russian tourists.
- Nearly 80% of organized tours to Sevastopol planned for June 2024 have been cancelled.
- Concerns about the security situation, particularly unreliable air defense systems, are cited as the primary reason for the cancellations.
- Jonathan highlights the impact of incidents like the recent explosion on a Crimean beach, which likely led to widespread fear and negative publicity.
Ukraine Allocates Funds to Counter Russian Propaganda
🎦 25:39-26:19⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian government's allocation of $355,000 to combat Russian propaganda in border regions:
- The funds will be used to establish a television and radio broadcasting system to counter Russian disinformation efforts.
- Jonathan applauds this move, emphasizing the critical need to address Russian propaganda in Ukraine and Europe.
Debunking Russian Propaganda Video Using Underwear Brand
🎦 26:19-29:45⏩
Jonathan discusses a successful debunking of a Russian propaganda video by open-source intelligence (OSINT) researchers, including YouTuber “Artur Rehi”:
- The video, initially presented by Russian sources as depicting Ukrainian soldiers, showed a wounded soldier being executed.
- Analysis by OSINT researchers revealed details that exposed the video as Russian propaganda.
- The wounded soldier's underwear, identified as a Russian brand called “Bokai,” not sold in Ukraine, was a key piece of evidence.
- Other details, such as the type of rifle and the location, further confirmed the video's Russian origin.
- Jonathan emphasizes the brazen nature of Russian propaganda efforts and the importance of OSINT in countering disinformation.
Ukrainian Sunflower Fields
🎦 30:11-30:49⏩
Jonathan shares a brief, positive interlude featuring images of sunflower fields in Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine.
Wrap up
🎦 30:49-31:08⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with his usual sign-off, thanking viewers for their support and reminding them to like, subscribe, and share the video.