Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Another example perhaps that drones are becoming the new munition of choice in many different ways."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG Geopolitics frontline update for December 27th, 2023, noting it will be shorter than usual. He mentions he hasn't conducted extensive research for this update.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupiansk-Kremina Front
🎦 00:40-01:17⏩
Jonathan starts with the northeastern sector from Kupiansk to Kremina. He notes no changes on the map but mentions ongoing Russian attacks around Sienkiewka and activity near the tourney area where Russia has expanded their bridgehead or salient towards Zarichna and Torske.
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Bakhmut Front
🎦 01:17-01:59⏩
Moving south to Bakhmut, Jonathan highlights a small Russian gain north of the city as per DeepState map. He then points out a previously mapped Russian recapture of a cemetery east of Popasna.
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Donetsk Front (South of Bakhmut)
🎦 02:10-03:53⏩
Jonathan observes discrepancies between Syriac map and other maps in the area south of Bakhmut. Syriac map shows Ukrainian gains in Andriivka, contradicting Surat Maps. Jonathan believes this could be a correction by Syriac map, suggesting Russian gains east of the railway line may negate previous claims of Ukrainian control west of it. He notes potential significant Russian advances in this area with gains of up to 1km but emphasizes the need for further confirmation as these gains haven't been reflected by other mappers.
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Avdiivka Front
🎦 04:06-05:21⏩
Jonathan describes a mixed situation in the Avdiivka area. Ukrainians have reportedly made gains in Stepova and surrounding tree lines, but Russians have advanced near the water treatment plant and along water features. Syriac map aligns more with Andrew Perpetua and DeepState map, retracting previous Russian control lines. Despite these changes, the Avdiivka cauldron remains static. Jonathan speculates that the reduced activity might be attributed to a Christmas lull, weather conditions, or strategic pauses by both sides.
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Maryinka Front
🎦 05:23-07:20⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Maryinka, where Surat Maps and Andrew Perpetua depict Russian gains. He notes that Andrew Perpetua's map may be catching up with Surat Maps' previous claims. Jonathan highlights Surat Maps' assertion that the battle for Maryinka has concluded and the focus has shifted to Hurivka, potentially the next major point of conflict. This westward shift, Jonathan contends, implies Ukraine will adopt a more defensive strategy in locations like Kurakhove, emphasizing their strategic importance. Furthermore, he predicts challenges for Ukrainian forces in maintaining control of Pobieda as Russia is likely to advance along the main road, potentially encircling the settlement. Despite the escalating situation, Jonathan acknowledges the resilience shown by Ukrainian troops in holding Pobieda, crucial for its access route through Kostyantyvka to Vuhledar.
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Vuhledar Front
🎦 07:20-07:30⏩
Jonathan moves on to Vuhledar, noting its challenging situation for Ukraine but reports no changes in the area based on his sources.
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Robotyne Front
🎦 07:30-08:59⏩
Jonathan then focuses on Robotyne, where Surat Maps indicates substantial Russian gains. They are reportedly pushing north from their fortified positions in the southern Serovilyn line, penetrating the salient previously captured by Ukrainian forces. Surat Maps suggests a Ukrainian withdrawal from the Surovikin defensive line, predicting the frontline will be pushed back several kilometers from Velyka Novosilka. Jonathan mentions a new map is expected soon. He points out the lack of confirmation from Andrew Perpetua or DeepState map regarding these Russian gains, advising viewers to be cautious. However, he acknowledges the recent accuracy of Surat Maps in depicting Russian advancements over the past few weeks.
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Dnipro Front
🎦 09:05-10:21⏩
Finally, Jonathan addresses the Dnipro River and Kinburn Spit area, reporting no changes. He expresses hope for Ukrainian expansion in this sector, given the halt of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) operations, likely due to fears of further losses to air defense systems. Rumors suggest the potential presence of F-16s or Patriot systems in the area, though unconfirmed. This pause in Russian air activity has provided a reprieve for Ukrainian forces, particularly around Kinburn, from FAB-500 glide bomb attacks. Jonathan speculates whether Russia might resort to using Shahed drones in this area to achieve similar results without risking manned aircraft. He concludes by emphasizing the increasing significance of drones in modern warfare, potentially replacing traditional munitions in various capacities.
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Wrap up
🎦 10:21-11:01⏩
Jonathan summarises the frontline situation, characterized by a few Ukrainian gains but predominantly Russian advancements, a trend he expects to persist in the coming winter months. He acknowledges the less detailed nature of this update while expressing hope that viewers found it acceptable. He signs off by thanking his audience, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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