Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The whole world is persuading the Ukrainian to go to the end of the first round but the first round will end the second is the next one. Kiev is promised Karabagh history, a return of a time, taking into account the fact that they will never reconcile and will try to return the territories, even if international documents are signed. Round two could happen in a week, or maybe in 10 to 20 years, or our grandchildren will get it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War News Update, Part 1 for 31st July 2024. He apologises for the delay, citing a busy day and being behind schedule.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses (Ukrainian General Staff Figures)
🎦 00:19-01:10⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff reports 1060 Russian personnel lost, along with 9 tanks, 20 armoured personnel vehicles, 30 artillery systems, 1 multiple launch rocket system, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 52 vehicles & fuel tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment.
Return to top⤴️
Equipment Losses (Andrew Perpetua's Loss List)
🎦 01:10-03:32⏩
Jonathan analyses the Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses reported by Andrew Perpetua, highlighting a 3:1 loss ratio in Ukraine's favour. He notes that the figures include a significant number of surveillance and communications equipment on both sides, but emphasises the Ukrainian advantage in combat losses.
Return to top⤴️
Novo-Makalivka Losses
🎦 04:31-05:49⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians have lost over 400 pieces of equipment near Novo-Makalivka, an area where he previously mentioned reports of 320 losses during the Russian offensive. He highlights the Ukrainian defence in this area as exemplary, attributing it to the 72nd Mechanized and 79th Air Assault brigades and their supporting units.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Manpower Issues
🎦 05:49-06:14⏩
Jonathan points to reports of Russian manpower issues, including claims that they are rounding up migrants for deployment. He cites an assessment from the Daily Telegraph podcast, based on an article by Roland Oliphant, which aligns with his own assessment that the Russians are struggling despite making gains.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Tactics
🎦 06:14-07:49⏩
Jonathan describes a tactic employed by the Russians to target Ukrainian units during rotations. They identify and follow units moving to quieter areas of the front line, exploiting opportunities to inflict losses. Despite this, he reiterates that the Russians are in significant trouble and unlikely to achieve any major objectives in this offensive period.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Claims of Shooting Down Ukrainian MiG-29
🎦 07:49-09:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian claim of shooting down a Ukrainian MiG-29 from a distance of 213 km, which would set a new world record for air-to-air missile range. He highlights the lack of evidence and encourages viewers to take the claim with a grain of salt.
Return to top⤴️
North Korean "Bulsai 4" ATGM Use
🎦 09:18-10:25⏩
Jonathan revisits his previous report about the use of North Korean "Bulsai 4" anti-tank guided missiles in the Kharkiv region. He now presents video footage from springtime, which seemingly shows the destruction of a UK-provided AS90 self-propelled howitzer by a "Bulsai 4". He questions the implications of this for sanctions and international cooperation.
Return to top⤴️
First Helicopter Shot Down by a Drone
🎦 10:25-11:49⏩
Jonathan reports that a helicopter has been shot down by a drone, likely an FPV drone, at a significant distance. He discusses the implications of this, particularly the potential vulnerability of forward operating bases to long-range FPV drones.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Airfields
🎦 11:49-13:35⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields, including Saki airfield in Crimea, Olenya airfield near Finland, and a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at Lenya airfield. He highlights the significance of these strikes, particularly the damage to two strategic bombers, and the challenges they pose for the Russian air force.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Airstrike on Russian Command Post
🎦 13:35-14:06⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian airstrike on a Russian command post in Kherson Oblast, seemingly using a JDAM.
Return to top⤴️
Apartment Block Fire in Shevukino, Belgorod Oblast
🎦 14:06-14:35⏩
Jonathan discusses a fire in an apartment block in Shevukino, located in the Belgorod Oblast of Russia. He is uncertain about the cause, but notes claims that the building was hit. He speculates about the involvement of air defences, missiles, or drones.
Return to top⤴️
Fire at "Automatiki" Defence Plant in Yekaterinburg
🎦 14:35-15:41⏩
Jonathan reports a significant fire at the "Automatiki" defence plant in Yekaterinburg, Russia. This facility is known for producing control systems for missiles and other weapons. Jonathan highlights the impact this fire could have on Russian military capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Death of Moscow Stock Exchange Marketing Director
🎦 15:41-16:14⏩
Jonathan reports the death of a Moscow stock exchange marketing director who fell off a yacht on the Moscow River. He suggests that this death may not have been accidental, given the current climate in Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Special Forces Strike in Syria
🎦 16:14-18:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a video released by the Kyiv Post showing Ukrainian special forces carrying out a strike on a Russian air base in Syria. The attack targeted Russian military equipment and a base allegedly used for training foreign mercenaries. Jonathan argues that these strikes outside of Ukraine have significant implications for Russia's ability to sustain its war effort.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Air Defences Intercept Russian Drones
🎦 18:09-19:11⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian air defences successfully intercepted 89 Shahed drones and a KH-59 guided missile, all of which were launched against Ukraine. He highlights this success as evidence of significant improvement in Ukraine's air defences.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Strikes in Kursk
🎦 19:11-22:05⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets in the Kursk region. These include a drone strike on an oil depot and attacks on a munitions warehouse and an airfield. He notes that satellite imagery indicates the presence of fires near the airfield and suggests that multiple strikes may have been involved.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Propaganda
🎦 24:38-25:01⏩
Jonathan references a post from the Russian propagandist Vorenka of Kotanok, which highlights the current situation at the front. He suggests that the post is worth reading, especially point three, which discusses the shortage of infantry and the dominance of Ukrainian drones.
Return to top⤴️
Foreign Legion Presence in Ukraine
🎦 25:01-26:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the presence of foreign fighters, particularly from the Foreign Legion, in the Ukrainian military. He notes the role of these fighters in intelligence and special forces operations and acknowledges that their numbers have decreased since the start of the year.
Return to top⤴️
F-16 Training and Deployment
🎦 26:25-26:51⏩
Jonathan reports that 19 Ukrainian pilots have been trained to fly F-16s, but the aircraft are not yet based in Ukraine due to limitations in Ukrainian airfields and infrastructure. He notes that the Russians are aware of the training and are trying to disrupt Ukrainian air defences.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Frontline Challenges
🎦 26:51-31:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the challenges facing the Russian military at the front line. He highlights the shortage of personnel, the high level of losses, and the difficulties faced by Russian forces due to Ukrainian dominance in drone warfare. He cites Russian sources who complain about the lack of rest and resources for their soldiers and the pressure to achieve victories.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Nuclear Exercises
🎦 32:48-33:10⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian Ministry of Defence has announced the start of a third phase of exercises involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons. He notes the use of Iskander-M missiles during these exercises and highlights this as a form of nuclear saber-rattling.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Mobilisation and Migrant Workers
🎦 33:10-34:02⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing Russian mobilisation efforts, including the rounding up of migrant workers who may lack proper documentation. He highlights the use of this tactic as a means of bolstering Russian forces for the war in Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Abuse of Ukrainian Children
🎦 33:41-34:23⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over a disturbing video of a woman admitting to abusing her adopted Ukrainian child. He points to the broader issue of mistreatment of Ukrainian children who have been forcibly relocated to Russia, further highlighting the severity of the situation.
Return to top⤴️
Large-Scale Cyber Attack on Russia
🎦 34:29-35:00⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has conducted a large-scale cyber attack against Russia, disrupting the services of top banks, payment systems, social networks, and government websites.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 35:00-35:05⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and says he will speak to them soon.
Return to top⤴️
