Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"A square kilometer of land in Kursk is worth more than a square kilometer of land in Prokhorovsk region"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of his Ukraine War Update for the 23rd September 2024 and refers to his viewers as "Team".
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data - Daily Losses
🎦 00:10-03:48⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that personnel losses are high at 1330. He points out that this figure falls within his arbitrary range of 1,000 - 1,300, which has been observed for the last six months. Tank losses were also high, almost double the average at 16. Jonathan highlights the high number of artillery systems lost (81) - a record high.
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Ukrainian General Staff Data - 7 and 30 Day Trends
🎦 03:48-06:20⏩
Jonathan examines the 7 and 30 day trend data. The 7-day average for personnel losses is high at 1,270 indicating a bad week for Russian forces, whilst the 30 day average of 1,242 remains high, suggesting significant Russian personnel losses over the last month. The 7-day rolling average for artillery system losses is 41.57 - today's figure of 81 is much higher, indicating Ukrainian success in targeting these systems. Reviewing tank and AFV loss trends, Jonathan observes that recent figures have begun to increase again after a period of decline over the last few months.
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Ukrainian Military Action - Kursk Region
🎦 06:20-07:10⏩
Jonathan discusses unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have used HIMARS to target a Russian artillery position in the Kursk region. He speculates that this could be linked to the significant number of artillery system losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Ukrainian Military Action - Pobjeda
🎦 07:10-07:45⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian forces repelling an attack near the village of Pobjeda. According to reports, over two days, Russian forces deployed 27 units of equipment and a company of personnel in an attempt to storm Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces from the 33rd Mechanized Brigade successfully defended their positions, reportedly destroying 16 Russian vehicles and eliminating 60 Russian servicemen. Jonathan links this incident to the high number of Russian equipment losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Ukrainian Military Action - Drone on Drone Warfare
🎦 07:45-09:13⏩
Jonathan notes an increase in footage showing Ukrainian drone-on-drone activity. He discusses Ukrainian efforts to target Russian Lancet loitering munitions and reconnaissance drones, including the Zala, Supercam, and Orlan variants. He speculates that the Ukrainians could be using FPV drones with increased battery capacity for this task, and expresses uncertainty about the level of technology involved. Jonathan observes that increased Ukrainian efforts to target Russian reconnaissance drones will likely lead to fewer deep strikes on Ukrainian positions. He highlights that this was a topic of conversation in his appearance on the previous evening's Touch Me livestream.
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Russian Domestic Incidents - Rostov
🎦 09:13-09:47⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire in Rostov. 400 square meters of a warehouse and surrounding timber caught fire. Although the fire is not thought to be war related, Jonathan notes that the number of fires in Russia is part of a larger trend.
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Ukrainian Air Force Data - Overnight Missile and Drone Attacks
🎦 09:47-10:29⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight missile and drone attacks reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. Initially, he states that only a small attack occurred overnight - 3 out of 4 Shahed drones were shot down, but later corrects this based on new information. 100 drones were shot down, intercepted, or fell due to electronic warfare measures. Additionally, two Kh-59 and Kh-69 cruise missiles did not reach their targets. Jonathan expresses relief that the overnight attack was smaller than previous nights.
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Analysis - Shahed Drone Launch Site - Kursk
🎦 10:29-11:55⏩
Jonathan analyzes data from Shahid Tracker showing 78 Shahed drones launched from a single location in Kursk on the 4-5th September 2024. He suggests that this launch site would be a high value target for Ukrainian forces, and speculates that they are likely working to identify and target the site.
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Russian Military Action - Overnight Airstrikes on Zaporizhzhia
🎦 11:55-13:08⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight airstrikes on Zaporizhzhia, which injured 16 people. According to the city administration, at least 7 airstrikes hit the city, damaging 13 high-rise buildings and private houses. Jonathan expresses his frustration at the indiscriminate nature of the attacks.
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Ukrainian Military Action - Possible Strikes on Jankoi
🎦 13:08-13:59⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of explosions in Jankoi in Crimea, but acknowledges that there is no video footage available to confirm whether a strike took place. He speculates about possible Ukrainian motives for striking the city, which is home to a major airbase and logistics hub.
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Ukrainian Military Action - Possible Strike on Shikovka Air Base
🎦 13:59-14:36⏩
Jonathan reports an unconfirmed claim that Ukraine attacked Shikovka Air Base, located 270km southwest of Moscow. He states that he has no evidence to verify the claim but suggests that the base may have been targeted.
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Russian Domestic Incidents - Rostov and Azov
🎦 14:36-15:07⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of a debris crash and fire in Russia. Local Telegram channels reported air defense activity and a loud explosion between Rostov-on-Don and Azov, followed by reports of a fire in the Azov district. The cause of the fire is unknown.
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Russian Domestic Incidents - Rostov - Milorovsky District
🎦 15:07-15:56⏩
Jonathan reports on another fire, this time near Rostov. Citing a report from Tim White, he explains that a Ukrainian drone is thought to have been shot down, causing a fire in the Milorovsky district near a military airport. It is unclear whether the drone was targeting the airport.
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Ukrainian Military Action - Ammunition Depot Strikes
🎦 15:56-16:56⏩
Jonathan recaps previous reports of Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots in Toropets, Oktiabrski, Tikhoretsk and Tver. He notes that one strike in Tver destroyed trains carrying ammunition to an ammunition depot, disrupting Russian logistics.
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News - Ukrainian Special Forces - Snake Island
🎦 16:56-17:03⏩
, 28:18-29:14⏩
Jonathan shares exclusive footage of two commandos from the HUR's Timur special unit planting a Ukrainian flag on Snake Island shortly after its recapture from Russian forces in June 2022. The commandos, dressed in shorts and Hawaiian shirts to blend in as tourists, were dropped off by gyrocopter. Jonathan compares the mission to a James Bond film.
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News - Analysis - Frontline Situation
🎦 17:03-28:18⏩
Jonathan provides analysis of the current frontline situation, focusing on a Financial Times article by Christopher Miller who spoke to Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Donetsk. The article paints a gloomy picture with commanders attributing the worsening situation to several factors including:
- Evolving Russian tactics
- Dwindling resources
- Logistical challenges
- Lack of air defence and fortifications
- High casualties
- Poorly trained conscripts
- Mental and physical exhaustion
Jonathan addresses a complaint from a Ukrainian commander who criticizes the focus on Kursk, arguing that the gains made in Kursk come at the expense of losses in the Prokhorovsk region. Jonathan suggests that, strategically, a square kilometer of Russian territory might hold more bargaining power than a square kilometer of Ukrainian territory, justifying the Ukrainian leadership's decision. He acknowledges the impact this has on the morale of soldiers on the ground in Donetsk who feel abandoned. Jonathan also highlights the impact of Russia adopting some of Wagner's more effective tactics, such as using smaller, more numerous infantry units. This makes it harder to target enemy troops and inflict significant losses, particularly in the absence of cluster munitions. Jonathan argues that a key problem facing Ukrainian troops is their lack of long-range air defense systems to counter Russian helicopters and jets. He suggests that deploying Patriot systems further forward would help mitigate the threat but acknowledges that this would be risky. Miller's article criticizes Kyiv's leadership for failing to build defensive lines quickly enough. Jonathan concedes that this is a valid criticism, pointing to the situation in Avdiivka, where the Ukrainians assumed their defenses were strong enough to withstand Russian attacks and failed to invest in better fortifications. The article features a quote from "Yuri", a commander from the 68th Jäger Brigade describing his unit as being in "shambles" due to heavy losses and the psychological impact of combat. The article also alleges Russian use of chemical weapons, specifically tear gas, to force Ukrainian soldiers out of their trenches. Jonathan concludes by suggesting that the Ukrainians may be strategically sacrificing territory in the Prokhorovsk region in exchange for gains in Kursk. He also shares information about a Ukrainian assault brigade that reportedly broke through a section of the Russian border, further demonstrating this strategy. While acknowledging the difficult situation in the east, Jonathan maintains that it's crucial to view the conflict from a broader perspective.
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News - Russian Aerospace Forces - Possible Suicide of Senior Officer
🎦 29:14-31:58⏩
Jonathan discusses the death of Yuri Anikov, a high-ranking officer in the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), who reportedly died by suicide near Moscow. Anikov, head of the 678th Communication Centre, was found dead with empty vodka bottles and pill packages. A suicide note found at his home suggests that he was despairing at the poor working conditions and "criminal orders" within the VKS. Jonathan notes that this incident aligns with reports that the VKS has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine. He suggests that Anikov's death could reflect broader discontent and low morale within the Russian Aerospace Forces.
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Wrap Up
🎦 31:58-32:33⏩
Jonathan concludes by reiterating that the information should be taken with a grain of salt. He signs off by thanking viewers for their support, urging them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and thanking members for their financial contributions.
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