Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Russia aren't interested in being friends, they're not in this to make friends and influence people, they've had a history now of sowing discord and sowing fear into the population of others."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the Ukraine War News Update for 18 July 2023, which will be split into two parts. He mentions all the usual caveats apply to the figures he will share.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 710 liquidated Russian personnel, an uptick possibly due to increased military activity or hits on troop accumulations behind the line
- Significant losses of tanks, APVs, artillery (38 pieces), MLRS
- Russians are likely struggling with artillery, despite large stockpiles, due to poor storage conditions and cannibalization of parts
Aircraft Losses
A Russian Su-25 attack plane crashed into the Sea of Azov near Yeysk, with one pilot killed and the other injured. The cause appears to be mechanical failure. This is a meaningful loss for Russia in terms of the expensive aircraft and trained pilots.
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Equipment Losses
- HIMARS strike destroyed 3 pieces of Russian equipment in Kherson Oblast
- Footage shows 2 tanks and 1 IFV destroyed
- A Russian Tulip self-propelled 240mm mortar, capable of dealing significant damage, was taken out by HIMARS
- A supposed Russian command center was hit by a substantial explosion, likely from HIMARS, which would meaningfully impact their military command if true
Ukrainian Losses
A Ukrainian Bayraktar drone carrying MAM-L munitions was shot down in Kherson Oblast. This is notable as Bayraktars have been used more for reconnaissance than offense since early in the war due to Russia's anti-air adaptations. Ukraine's initial Bayraktar successes were likely exaggerated by clever PR.
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Crimean Bridge Damage
- A Russian official stated one road bridge span is completely destroyed and cannot be restored, requiring a 250m detour
- However, Russia has repaired the bridge enough to allow limited traffic already, easing logistical issues somewhat
Drone and Missile Attacks
- In apparent response to the Crimean bridge strike, Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack, mainly in Odesa Oblast
- 36 Shahed drones were launched (31 shot down) and all 6 Kalibr cruise missiles were intercepted, with 1 civilian injured
- Uncertainty if Ukraine is downplaying damage or if failed Russian strikes truly had minimal impact
- A Russian proxy claimed 30 drones were downed over Crimea overnight, but some may have gotten through and caused damage
Shaheed Drone Components
Part of a Shahed drone engine shot down over Mykolaiv Oblast was found to be made in Ireland. This highlights the issue of Iranian drones being full of components sourced from allied nations through third parties, which needs to be addressed by tightening loopholes.
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Russian Views on Crimean Holidays
- Many Russians still believe it's a good idea to holiday in occupied Crimea despite the war, with one complaining about "restless Nazis" disrupting their vacation plans
- This raises questions about the information Russians are receiving about the true situation and scope of the conflict
- Russian media is encouraging Crimean holidays despite the Kerch Bridge attack, downplaying risks while warning of mined roadsides
- Changing entrenched pro-Kremlin views, even after the war, will be a huge generational challenge, especially with youth indoctrination
Russia Wants to Be Feared, Not Befriended
Prominent Russian figure Tigran Keosayan, married to RT head Margarita Simonyan, stated Russia does not want to be friends with the West, just feared. Jonathan sees this as insightful - Russia has a history of sowing discord and fear in both internal and external populations as a tactic, rather than making themselves attractive. Understanding this mindset explains a lot about their decision-making.
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Russian Military Upheaval
- Deputy Commander Surovikin has been stripped of powers according to Ukrainian intelligence, with his fate undecided
- Rumours suggest a purge is underway, with many generals and officials under investigation
- All is not well in the Russian military hierarchy
Wagner in Belarus
- Multiple convoys of Wagner PMC troops and vehicles have been spotted heading into Belarus, some flying Wagner flags
- Satellite imagery shows a growing tent city in the village of Tsel
- Lukashenko stated Belarus will call on Wagner to defend the nation if needed, while pro-Western Belarusian figures oppose their presence
- Wagner's role in Belarus is unclear, possibly to train the Belarusian military, as they navigate an in-between existence after the failed mutiny
Wrap Up
Jonathan concludes part one of the update, noting part two will cover the front lines, military aid to Ukraine, and geopolitical topics. He thanks viewers for watching.
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