Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"And when you've got freaking Elon Musk, the richest man and arguably one of the most powerful men in the world, willingly, willfully, knowingly spreading deepfake disinformation, that is freaking dangerous. And this is what, part of the reason why I totally dislike this human being. He has, he has no grasp on, like, I, I shared one of an AR, of Trump the other day, dressed like a goth, right? And that's, that's obviously not, you know, like, his speech got turned into like him speaking with like a goth hairstyle and black lipstick and everything. Like, that is, when there's obvious humour there, and I shared it, not because of actually the content, I shared that because I, wow, look what you can do now. Like that, think about if you're trying to seriously like mess around with people. Like this is an obvious fake and is, you know, quite, quite, um, limited in its, in its believability."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another Ukraine War Update video. This is part two of the update for 19/09/2024 and focuses on Geopolitical News.
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EU Aid Package/Support for Ukraine
🎦 00:15-02:27⏩
Jonathan discusses an EU aid package totalling €160m to support Ukraine through the winter. He notes that there have been positive changes within the EU with the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as well as the election of Kaya Callas (former Estonian Prime Minister) and Andrius Kubilius (former Lithuanian Prime Minister) into powerful positions within the EU. Jonathan believes this is a positive development. He believes all three are strong on support for Ukraine and will be significant allies.
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Russia's UN Security Council Membership
🎦 02:52-03:55⏩
Jonathan refers to a previous live stream in which he discusses how Russia should not be a member of the UN Security Council. He mentions Alexander Stubb (former Finish Prime Minister), who believes that the UN Security Council should be reformed to expand membership, remove single member veto rights and expel Russia.
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Poland/Ukraine: Volyn Tragedy Tensions
🎦 04:17-05:40⏩
Poland may use its EU presidency to place pressure on Ukraine to resolve historical issues related to the Volyn Tragedy, a massacre that took place during World War Two where Ukrainians (with the support of the Germans) killed many Poles. The Polish foreign ministry is planning to implement "concrete measures" unless Ukraine addresses the issue. Jonathan hopes this will not have a negative impact on relations between the two countries.
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Eastern European Nations Urge NATO Response to Russian Airspace Violations
🎦 05:40-06:40⏩
Nine Eastern European nations - Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia - have urged NATO to take action after repeated airspace violations by Russia. Jonathan notes the example of a Russian missile landing in Poland, arguing that NATO needs to clarify what actions can and should be taken to address incursions into NATO airspace.
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Russia Profits from Stolen Ukrainian Grain
🎦 06:40-07:08⏩
Russia has earned an estimated $1bn from the sale of stolen Ukrainian grain according to the Wall Street Journal. Jonathan expresses his disgust that Russia is profiting from the sale of stolen goods but notes that Russian traders have not been put off and are expanding their sales as buyers take advantage of the favourable pricing.
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Russia Looks to Secure Mining Deals in Sudan
🎦 07:08-08:43⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over reports that Russia is looking to sign lucrative mining deals in Sudan to extract gold, which will allow them to continue to fund the war in Ukraine. He notes that Russia has a strong presence in the Sahel region and that these deals would entrench Russia's presence in Sudan for years to come. Jonathan believes that countries that have significant natural resources are more susceptible to corrupt regimes which ultimately leads to a regression of democratic processes.
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IMF Postpones Russian Mission
🎦 08:43-09:16⏩
The IMF has postponed its Russian mission indefinitely following criticism from Europe that it was inappropriate to proceed with the review.
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Armenia Foils Russian Backed Coup
🎦 09:16-10:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia attempted to orchestrate a coup in Armenia following Armenia's decision to withdraw from the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation). He suggests that Russia is increasing its efforts to maintain influence in the region and cites Georgia's upcoming elections as a concern, suggesting that Russia will try to interfere to prevent Georgia from embracing the West.
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China's Increased Exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan
🎦 10:22-11:07⏩
Jonathan shares graphs (crediting Robin Brooks) showing that Chinese exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have increased significantly from $1.5bn per month before the invasion to $5bn per month currently. He states that it is obvious that these goods are destined for Russia, stating that China is enabling Russia's war effort. Jonathan believes that the war would not be possible without China's support and that something needs to be done to address it.
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Kyrylo Budanov Interview: Russia's Economic Difficulties & Reliance on North Korea
🎦 11:07-15:51⏩
Jonathan shares a Twitter thread by Finnish PHD candidate Johnny Askola who summarises an interview with the Head of Ukraine's Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, at the 20th annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) Conference. The key takeaways include:
- Budanov expressed concern that North Korea has become Russia's largest military supplier
- Russia aims to conclude the war on favourable terms by the end of 2025/early 2026
- Russia will face significant economic challenges by Summer 2025 and is actively looking for ways to mitigate this.
- Russia will face a decision whether to announce full mobilisation or scale back operations by the end of Summer 2025
- Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit soldiers and may need to announce a mobilisation
- Russia is losing equipment faster than it can produce it and is reliant on Soviet Era stockpiles that will run out in the next one to two years
- Jonathan agrees with Budanov's assessment that Russia is running out of time and cannot sustain a long war
Jonathan adds that the war is not a conventional one and should be viewed as multi-faceted with an economic, trade, financial, political and informational dimension. He believes that the West is engaged in World War Three. Jonathan believes that Russia is running out of time and cannot sustain the war effort long term but is trying to establish "facts on the ground". He argues that the recent attack in Kursk demonstrates that Ukraine is capable of making advances and that Russia is not as powerful as many believe.
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Cate Blanchett Promotes Documentary about Ukraine
🎦 15:51-16:55⏩
Jonathan mentions the controversy at the Venice and Toronto International Film Festivals concerning the screening of a Russian propaganda film disguised as a documentary. He applauds actress Cate Blanchett, who attended the Toronto International Film Festival, for promoting a documentary about Ukraine called "Ukraine, Life Under Attack" which is available to watch on Amazon Video and Apple TV.
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Response to Donald Trump Jr and RFK Jr's Op-Ed: Negotiate With Russia
🎦 16:55-20:56⏩
Jonathan is highly critical of an article written by Donald Trump Jr and RFK Jr called "Negotiate with Moscow to end the Ukraine war and prevent nuclear devastation", which argues that the US should negotiate with Russia. Jonathan argues that the authors have a naive understanding of the situation and are promoting Russian appeasement. He shares some responses by prominent Ukrainians (published by the Kyiv Independent) who highlight factual inaccuracies, inconsistencies and flaws in the article's arguments. He notes that Russia's aims have always been to absorb Ukraine.
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Ilya Ponomarenko's Criticism of JD Vance
🎦 20:56-26:31⏩
Jonathan shares comments from a Twitter thread by Ilya Ponomarenko (former Kyiv Independent journalist and author), who is highly critical of JD Vance's suggestion that the US should pressure Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia and that any peace deal would likely involve Ukraine ceding territory. Jonathan agrees with the thread's assertions that:
- JD Vance's suggestion demonstrates a lack of understanding of the situation
- Russia's aim is the complete eradication of Ukraine
- Russia would not accept a ceasefire along current lines
- JD Vance's comments play into the hands of Russia and do not reflect the reality of the situation
Jonathan is highly critical of JD Vance, suggesting that his comments demonstrate that he is either a useful idiot or that he has Russia's best interests at heart.
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JD Vance's Comments on Free Speech/NATO
🎦 26:31-28:28⏩
Jonathan criticises JD Vance for suggesting that the US should withdraw support from NATO unless Europe supports Elon Musk and free speech on Twitter. Jonathan is angry about JD Vance's comments arguing that he is conflating NATO with the EU and accuses him of misrepresenting a letter sent by Thierry Breton (EU Commissioner for Internal Market) to Elon Musk.
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Elon Musk's Sharing of Russian Disinformation/Deepfakes
🎦 28:40-33:45⏩
Jonathan is critical of Elon Musk for sharing anti-Ukrainian disinformation generated by Russian psyops teams. He argues that Elon Musk's motivations are about power and influence and believes that he is no longer interested in making money. Jonathan speculates that Elon Musk has done a deal with Donald Trump whereby he will platform Trump and his campaign in exchange for having Trump's ear should Trump win the election. Jonathan believes this is a dangerous situation as it intertwines the richest man in the world with the most powerful man in the world. Jonathan is concerned about the rise of deepfakes and the impact they are having on society's ability to distinguish what is real and what is fake. He cites Microsoft's findings that Russia is increasingly targeting the Harris/Waltz campaign with deepfakes designed to sow discord and spread misinformation. Jonathan notes that California Governor Gavin Newsom will sign a bill making the distribution of deceptive deepfakes illegal. Jonathan is concerned that we are entering a period of chaos as deepfakes become more sophisticated and believable and criticises Elon Musk for retweeting an altered video of Kamala Harris that could be perceived to be real, describing it as a dangerous situation. He uses the example of a deepfake that he shared on his channel of Donald Trump dressed as a goth to demonstrate how believable deepfakes can be.
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Russian Disinformation Spread by US Politicians
🎦 33:45-35:38⏩
Jonathan provides an example of disinformation spread by Russian Troll Farms: the false accusation that Kamala Harris was involved in a hit and run in June 2011. He warns viewers to be careful about the information that they consume and share online, especially in the run up to the election.
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YouTube Removes Channels of Belarusian Propagandists
🎦 35:38-35:19⏩
Jonathan reports that YouTube has removed the channels of Belarusian propagandists in line with sanctions imposed by the US.
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Leaked Russian Documents Show Marjorie Taylor Greene Aiding Russian Disinformation Efforts
🎦 35:19-35:38⏩
Jonathan refers to recently leaked Russian documents that name 2,800 influencers who have been involved in spreading disinformation. He highlights that the documents specifically identify US politician Marjorie Taylor Greene as aiding Russia in spreading misinformation about Ukraine.
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Zelensky's Victory Plan
🎦 36:04-37:34⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky will present his victory plan to the US before Ukraine is granted permission to strike deep into Russia. The plan will be presented at the upcoming UN Summit. US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has confirmed that the US has seen the plan and believes that it could be effective.
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Zelensky to Meet with US Presidential Candidates
🎦 37:34-39:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky is scheduled to meet with both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris at the UN summit next week. He believes that Kamala Harris is the best option for Ukraine. Jonathan is optimistic that Harris will win the election, citing recent polls that show that she is consistently ahead of Trump, but warns that polls have been wrong in the past and that "October Surprises" and other factors could affect the outcome. He urges the DNC to ensure that Kamala Harris has a significant media presence.
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Pro-Trump Youtuber Exposed for Faking Trip to Front Lines
🎦 39:35-41:33⏩
Jonathan expresses his disgust at a pro-Trump YouTuber who travelled to Kyiv and claimed that US taxpayer money was being misspent after filming expensive cars in the city. When the YouTuber was challenged and accused of being safe in Kyiv because of US-funded Patriot systems, he claimed that he had visited the front lines, posting a picture as proof. The picture was exposed as a fake. Jonathan is amused that the YouTuber's lie has been exposed and reads extracts from an article that criticises the YouTuber for his actions.
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Wrap up
🎦 41:33-41:51⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching.
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