Ukraine War Update NEWS: AP's Equipment Loss List
Table of Contents 📖
"[The Ukrainians] are going to be probably a little bit more annoyed at their losses today than the Russians considering they don't have as much kit as the Russians."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:42⏩
Jonathan starts with a warm "Hello team," welcoming viewers to a supplementary video analyzing the Andrew Perpetua's latest equipment loss list for the Russia-Ukraine war. He acknowledges viewer requests for coverage of the list and clarifies the video's focus, encouraging those uninterested to skip it. This update specifically addresses the visually confirmed losses within the past 24 hours.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Overall Losses: Ukraine vs. Russia
🎦 00:42-00:56⏩
Jonathan highlights a favorable 3:1 loss ratio for Ukraine based on Andrew Perpetua's data, aligning with his own observations and deeming it relatively accurate. This positive statistic sets the stage for a detailed analysis of specific equipment losses.
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Ukraine's Losses: Decoys, Drones, and Heavy Equipment
🎦 00:56-02:34⏩
Jonathan meticulously examines Ukraine's visually confirmed losses, starting with a potentially decoyed Su-25 aircraft shown in a previous video. He questions its strategic placement and suggests the Lancet drone strike might not have caused substantial damage. Other losses include Starlink systems, an excavator, boats, a destroyed M1 Abrams tank, several Bradleys (destroyed and abandoned), a Polish-provided Rosamak infantry fighting vehicle, and another Bradley damaged by a night-vision FPV drone. Jonathan acknowledges these losses as "fairly decent hits for the Russians," particularly the high-value equipment.
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Russia's Losses: Military Vehicles, Artillery, and Infrastructure
🎦 02:34-03:32⏩
Shifting focus to Russian losses, Jonathan lists electronic warfare and communication equipment, crane trucks, a tugboat, a TOS-1A thermobaric launcher (considered high-value), a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher, and standard artillery pieces. Tank losses include several abandoned units, T-90 tanks (damaged and destroyed), damaged T-90Ms (their most advanced tank), infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, trucks, and civilian vehicles. Additionally, he mentions a damaged diesel locomotive, an electronic generator, and even a "lawnmower wagon."
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Assessing the Impact: Attrition and Significance of Losses
🎦 03:32-04:15⏩
Jonathan contrasts the numerical disparity in losses, with Russia suffering significantly more casualties than Ukraine. Despite this, he speculates that Ukraine might be more affected due to its limited resources. The loss of Bradleys, an Abrams tank, and a Rosamak is deemed a significant setback for Ukraine, emphasizing the impact of attrition on both sides. The fate of the Su-25 remains uncertain, but its potential loss adds to the complexity of the situation.
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Wrap Up
🎦 04:15-04:18⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, reiterating the significance of the day's losses and expressing his intention to return with fresh analysis the following day.
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