Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Are soldiers ever happy on the front line? No, they're never happy."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a "relatively quick" update on the Ukraine War Frontline for the 9th of January 2024. He notes that there haven't been significant changes to the frontline apart from the Marinka-Novomykaylivka area in the south of the eastern front, but that there is still military activity.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Central and Eastern Front Lines: Intense fighting and Ukrainian reliance on FPV drones due to shell shortages
🎦 00:38-02:12⏩
Jonathan highlights an article in _The New York Times_ which describes the fighting along a broad stretch of the central and eastern frontlines as the most dangerous since the war began, citing interviews with Ukrainian soldiers and commanders. The article notes that Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly relying on FPV drones instead of artillery due to shell shortages. Jonathan points out that while this indicates a potential shell shortage, it might also be a tactical decision as drones can be more accurate when targeting Russian trenches, dugouts and bunkers. He mentions an upcoming discussion with Andrew Perpetua where they will discuss this topic in more detail.
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Media Coverage and inherent biases
🎦 03:41-05:42⏩
Jonathan cautions against blindly trusting media reports such as those published by _The New York Times_. He explains that these reports are inherently biased because they can only interview Ukrainian soldiers and not Russian soldiers, leading to a one-sided perspective. He emphasizes that while it's understandable for Ukrainian soldiers to express negativity given their circumstances, it's crucial for readers to consider the inherent selection bias in such reports.
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Northeast Frontline Update: Kupiansk, Lyman, Avdiivka, Bakhmut
🎦 05:42-07:20⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Northeast frontline, noting that there are no confirmed changes based on reports from military analysts and mappers:
- Kupiansk: Fighting continues south and southwest of Lyman Pershyi in the forest.
- Avdiivka: Russian forces are attempting to break through towards Novobakhmutivka.
- Bakhmut: Clashes persist near the cemetery on the 0506 road towards Chasiv Yar. Jonathan emphasizes that despite the ongoing fighting and reported difficulties faced by Ukrainian troops, Russian forces are also struggling to make significant breakthroughs.
Ukrainian Advance in Kreminna Forest: 63rd Mechanized Brigade
🎦 07:20-08:35⏩
Jonathan highlights a report from WarMonitor reporting an advance by the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade in the area of the Donetsk-Luhansk border, specifically in the Kreminna Forest. They are reportedly 900 meters from the village of Dibrova, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may have pushed Russian troops back to their defensive lines from May 2023. Jonathan notes that this information has not been confirmed by other sources, but that he considers it potentially positive news for Ukraine.
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Mariinka: Russian Advance and Mapping Alignment
🎦 08:35-09:14⏩
Shifting his focus to Mariinka, Jonathan says that military analyst Andrew Perpetua has observed Russian forces achieving some success in pushing back Ukrainian troops to positions previously held according to maps by Suriat. He acknowledges that this indicates a degree of Russian advance.
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Mariinka: Detailed Analysis of Russian Gains
🎦 09:14-10:08⏩
Jonathan provides a more granular overview of the situation in Mariinka based on various military analysts and maps, stating that:
- Russian forces have advanced further west of Mariinka towards Hryhorivka over the past two weeks.
- The Russians are entrenched at the O05-110 intersection.
- The H15T junction is still contested, with the possibility of ongoing fighting in the area.
Novomykolayivka: Ukrainian Counter-attack and Strategic Significance
🎦 10:08-11:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's mapping, noting that Perpetua's assessment of the situation in Novomykolayivka appears to be aligning with previous reports from Suriat Maps and DeepStateMap which showed a significant Ukrainian counter-attack that repelled Russian forces and allowed the Ukrainians to regain territory south of the settlement. He notes that maintaining control of Novomykolayivka, despite it being heavily damaged, is strategically crucial for Ukraine as it serves as a buffer for Konstantynivka and protects a vital road that prevents Russian forces from advancing northeast towards Vuhledar.
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Southern Frontline Update: Robotyne, Vasylivka and Potential Russian Advance
🎦 11:46-13:11⏩
Jonathan moves on to the southern section of the front line:
- Robotyne/Vasylivka: He notes that while his usual sources haven't reported any changes in this area, Global War Monitor claims that Russian forces have advanced across agricultural land west of Robotyne.
- Jonathan observes that this reported Russian advance aligns with Suriat Maps' depiction of Russian territorial control, suggesting that Global War Monitor may be utilizing data from Suriat Maps for this area.
General Teplinsky: Mounting Pressure, Discrediting Campaign, and Potential "Setup"
🎦 13:11-17:22⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation surrounding General Teplinsky, the commander of the Russian airborne forces (VDV) and the regional commander for the Dnipro grouping:
- Pressure and Criticism: Teplinsky is facing mounting pressure due to the success of Ukrainian tactics in Kherson, which have resulted in heavy Russian equipment losses and setbacks in counter-battery fire, electronic warfare, and drone warfare.
- Discrediting Campaign: Anton Gerashchenko claims that the Kremlin is trying to discredit Teplinsky due to his past criticisms of the Russian military leadership, specifically Shoigu and Gerasimov. This alleged campaign reportedly involves spreading negative information about Teplinsky on social media and through controlled media outlets.
- Difficult Assignment: Teplinsky was assigned to the challenging Dnipro region, which includes the occupied Kherson region and parts of Zaporizhia, where Ukrainian resistance remains strong.
- "Setup" Theory: Jonathan questions whether assigning Teplinsky to this difficult area was a deliberate move to set him up for failure and subsequent removal. He highlights the lack of official congratulations on Teplinsky's 55th birthday as a potential sign of his diminishing standing within the Russian military.
2022 Counteroffensive Plans: Zaluzhny, Zelenskyy, and US Opposition
🎦 17:22-21:08⏩
Jonathan reveals a report suggesting that Ukrainian military leadership, including Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had planned to launch a major counteroffensive in 2022 with the goal of isolating Russian forces and retaking Crimea but the US advised against it. Jonathan explains that this proposed 2022 counteroffensive, had it been carried out, would have taken place before Russia had the chance to establish extensive minefields and fortifications in southern Ukraine. While acknowledging that this earlier counteroffensive might have caught Russian forces off guard, Jonathan also points out that the Ukrainian military wouldn't have been as well-equipped or trained at that time. He reflects on whether launching the counteroffensive in 2022, despite the potential risks and uncertainties, would have yielded a more favourable outcome for Ukraine, particularly in light of the subsequent Russian defensive preparations.
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Wrap Up
🎦 21:08-21:12⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share his video.
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