US Politics Election Extra: Biden - Harris Showdown Update

"And you do that, and it just will not end well for you, I'm sure. So I thought that was an odd choice for Tim Burchett, but not at all unsurprising. But I would say that it is ill-advised, that's for sure."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:18⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He describes the video as an "extra" focused on US politics. He discusses the fast-moving storyline of Biden stepping down and Harris taking over, and the implications for Trump's campaign.

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Disinformation Examples

🎦 00:18-02:40⏩

Jonathan warns viewers to be cautious of disinformation and provides examples of how it is being spread on social media. He cites the case of Joey Manorino, a MAGA influencer, who was caught accidentally not logging out of his own account before logging into a sockpuppet account. He highlights the need to watch out for similar activity from Russian trolls. Jonathan also mentions a tweet that was deleted, highlighting the rapid pace of misinformation and its spread.

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Joe Biden's Health and Disinformation

🎦 02:41-04:40⏩

Jonathan discusses disinformation circulating around Joe Biden's health. He mentions claims about Biden being ill, getting COVID-19, and being on the verge of death. He cites OSINT Defender, a pro-Israel commentator who has been critical of Twitter's handling of disinformation. Jonathan highlights the spread of misinformation about Biden's health, including claims that he was in hospice care and unlikely to survive the night.

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Laura Loomer's Disinformation

🎦 04:41-05:40⏩

Jonathan focuses on Laura Loomer, a far-right figure whom he describes as a "super right winger" and an "actual fascist person." He discusses the "Overton window," the range of acceptable discourse, and how Loomer is pushing the boundaries of acceptable speech by associating with figures like David Duke of the KKK. Jonathan argues that repeated exposure to racist rhetoric can lead to its normalization through the "mere exposure effect."

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Don Jr.'s Proposed Press Secretary

🎦 05:41-06:27⏩

Jonathan addresses Don Jr.'s suggestion that Alex Jones, known for spreading conspiracy theories, should be the White House press secretary. He criticizes Jones for denying the Sandy Hook massacre and for being a "complete brain fart of a human being." Jonathan expresses concern about the normalization of such figures in political discourse.

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FAA Flight Restrictions and Disinformation

🎦 06:28-07:58⏩

Jonathan analyzes Laura Loomer's claim that an FAA flight restriction in Wilmington, Delaware, was due to Joe Biden's declining health. He points out that the restriction was likely related to Kamala Harris's visit to Wilmington for a campaign event. Jonathan criticizes Loomer's lack of journalistic integrity and highlights the spread of misinformation by Global Press and the subsequent deletion of their claim.

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Assassination Attempt and its Impact

🎦 07:59-09:34⏩

Jonathan reflects on the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and its lack of lasting impact on the political landscape. He notes that the public's attention quickly shifted to the Biden-Harris situation, and the event did not have the anticipated effect of boosting Trump's popularity. Jonathan also discusses the shooter's background, suggesting that the attack may have been motivated by personal reasons rather than political ideology. He criticizes Republicans for failing to capitalize on the event to their advantage.

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Elon Musk's Double Standards

🎦 09:35-13:25⏩

Jonathan highlights Elon Musk's double standards regarding Donald Trump. He points out that Musk, a significant financial supporter of Trump, has previously expressed concerns about Trump's age and fitness for the presidency. Jonathan notes that Musk's stance on Trump seems to have shifted since then, highlighting the complexities of Musk's political allegiances.

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Cognitive Decline and US Politics

🎦 13:26-16:34⏩

Jonathan delves into the issue of cognitive decline and its relevance to the US election. He discusses how Republicans have focused on Joe Biden's age and cognitive capabilities as a campaign strategy. He argues that this strategy can now be turned against Trump, who is older than Biden was in the previous election and who has exhibited signs of cognitive decline. Jonathan shares his personal experiences with cognitive impairment due to multiple sclerosis and his father's recent dementia diagnosis, providing context for his perspective.

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Kamala Harris's Emerging Campaign Strategy

🎦 16:35-18:53⏩

Jonathan shifts his focus to Kamala Harris, discussing her potential campaign strategy. He highlights her recent speech in Wilmington, Delaware, which he describes as a "drop mic moment." He suggests that Harris's experience as a prosecutor will be a key element of her campaign, framing the election as a battle between a prosecutor and a felon (Trump).

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Harris's Prosecutor vs. Felon Approach

🎦 18:54-26:11⏩

Jonathan analyzes Harris's speech in Wilmington in detail. He notes that she presented herself as a skilled prosecutor who is familiar with Trump's tactics and history of misconduct. He argues that her "prosecutor against felon" approach will resonate with voters who prioritize the rule of law. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of repeatedly reminding the electorate of Trump's legal troubles and history of alleged misconduct.

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Trump's Potential Avoidance of Debate

🎦 26:12-26:37⏩

Jonathan speculates that Donald Trump might try to avoid debating Kamala Harris due to her "prosecutor vs. felon" approach. He highlights Trump's previous attempts to avoid debates and his preference for friendly media platforms like Fox News.

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Harris's Campaign Strategy: Key Focus Areas

🎦 26:38-28:14⏩

Jonathan outlines the key focus areas of Harris's campaign. He emphasizes her focus on Trump's criminality, specifically mentioning his legal troubles and history of sexual assault allegations. He suggests that Harris will also campaign on reproductive rights, highlighting the stark contrast between her stance and the positions of Trump and his running mate, JD Vance.

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Harris's Appeal to Middle America

🎦 28:15-28:51⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's efforts to appeal to middle America and the importance of mobilizing independent voters. He points out that Harris's campaign will likely focus on policies that are beneficial to the middle class and differentiate her approach from Trump's perceived focus on corporate interests.

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Polling Data and Early Insights

🎦 28:52-31:01⏩

Jonathan acknowledges that early polling data is unreliable due to the recency of Harris's campaign launch. He discusses some initial polls that show Harris outperforming Biden against Trump. He emphasizes that polls are likely to change as Harris gains more exposure and the campaign progresses.

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Demographic Shifts in Support

🎦 31:02-33:10⏩

Jonathan provides a breakdown of polling data across various demographics. He highlights significant shifts in support towards Harris compared to Biden, particularly among moderates, independents, and college-educated voters. He also notes a positive shift in support among black voters and a smaller but notable increase among Hispanic voters.

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Early Campaign Successes and Fundraising

🎦 33:11-35:32⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's early campaign successes and the significant fundraising she has already achieved. He points out that she has been able to mobilize the Democratic base and generate enthusiasm, something that Biden struggled with in the previous election. He also highlights the record-breaking amount of small-dollar donations that her campaign has received.

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Harris's Favorability Ratings and Trump's Unpopularity

🎦 35:33-37:06⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's favorability ratings and Trump's low popularity. He acknowledges that Harris has a relatively lower favorability rating than Biden but argues that this is likely due to her limited exposure as vice president. He predicts that her approval ratings will increase as she becomes more visible in the campaign.

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Trump's VP Selection and the Implications

🎦 37:07-38:08⏩

Jonathan analyzes Trump's decision to select JD Vance as his running mate. He argues that Vance's selection was based on Trump's overconfidence and his desire for a running mate who would mirror his own positions. Jonathan believes that this choice will limit Trump's ability to expand his base.

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Harris's Potential VP Choices

🎦 38:09-38:33⏩

Jonathan discusses potential vice presidential choices for Harris. He suggests that she could select someone like Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania, to appeal to voters in that key state. He also mentions other possibilities like Roy Cooper (Governor of North Carolina) or Andy Beshear (Governor of Kentucky), highlighting the importance of expanding her base.

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Polling Data and Early Predictions

🎦 38:34-39:05⏩

Jonathan examines polling data that suggests Harris is trailing Trump by a small margin, although he emphasizes that these polls were conducted before Biden's withdrawal from the race. He argues that the polling data is likely to change as Harris becomes more active in the campaign.

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Demographic Breakdown of Support for Harris

🎦 39:06-40:27⏩

Jonathan presents a demographic breakdown of support for Harris based on polling data. He highlights strong support among women voters, particularly women of color, and among younger voters. He argues that if Harris can mobilize these key demographics in swing states, she will have a strong chance of winning the election.

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Trump's Favorability Ratings and the RNC

🎦 40:28-41:05⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's favorability ratings and their possible link to the recent assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention (RNC). He suggests that the recent events have temporarily boosted Trump's popularity.

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Early Polling Data and Further Analysis

🎦 41:06-42:19⏩

Jonathan continues his analysis of polling data, focusing on a Morning Consult poll that shows Harris with a 4% advantage over Biden. He emphasizes that the Republican Party remains favored to win the election, but Harris has narrowed the gap.

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Campaign Enthusiasm and Mobilization

🎦 42:20-42:48⏩

Jonathan highlights the increased enthusiasm and mobilization among Democrats following Harris's announcement. He notes that Democrats are more motivated to participate in the election than Republicans, a positive sign for Harris's campaign.

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Additional Polling Data and Insights

🎦 42:49-43:55⏩

Jonathan presents additional polling data, including a Reuters-Ipsos survey that shows Harris with a slight lead over Trump. He also discusses a Quinnipiac University poll that shows a tied race, noting that it was conducted before Biden's withdrawal from the race.

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Democratic Endorsements and the Importance of Independents

🎦 43:56-44:59⏩

Jonathan notes the strong endorsements Harris has received from prominent Democrats and discusses the importance of securing support from independent voters. He acknowledges that it is too early to assess the impact of Harris's candidacy on independent voters but expects to see shifts in support as the campaign progresses.

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Donor Enthusiasm and Fundraising

🎦 45:00-46:37⏩

Jonathan highlights the significant contributions Harris has received from both small-dollar and large-dollar donors. He suggests that there was a pent-up excitement among Democrats waiting to be released, and Harris's announcement has provided the necessary impetus for mobilization.

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Harris's Potential to Outspend Republicans

🎦 46:38-47:23⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's fundraising efforts and her potential to outspend the Republican Party. He believes that with a large war chest and focused campaigning, she can make significant gains in key battleground states.

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Democratic Voter Mobilization and Win With Black Women

🎦 47:24-48:00⏩

Jonathan highlights the rapid mobilization of Democratic voters around Harris's candidacy. He mentions a successful video call hosted by Win With Black Women, which garnered significant donations for the Harris campaign.

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Delegate Endorsements and Harris's Likely Coronation

🎦 48:01-49:30⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris securing enough delegate endorsements to win the Democratic nomination. He speculates that her strong support may make an open primary unnecessary, leading to a coronation rather than a contested race. He believes that this outcome will allow Harris to start campaigning earlier and choose her running mate sooner.

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Potential VP Choices and Vetting Process

🎦 49:31-50:38⏩

Jonathan delves into the potential VP choices for Harris. He mentions the importance of legal vetting to ensure no skeletons in the closet. He suggests that Harris will likely choose from a pool of candidates who have been deemed clean and competent.

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Pete Buttigieg as a Potential VP and Risks

🎦 50:39-51:29⏩

Jonathan considers Pete Buttigieg as a potential VP choice for Harris. He acknowledges that the combination of a woman of color and a gay man could be seen as a high-risk choice for some voters. However, he cites Scaramucci's view that the Democrats often win when they take risks. He also points out that Buttigieg's role in the Biden administration would not require a replacement in his current position, making him a potentially appealing choice.

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Other Potential VP Choices and Considerations

🎦 51:30-52:51⏩

Jonathan discusses other potential VP choices for Harris. He mentions Josh Shapiro, who is considered a frontrunner but may face challenges due to his Jewish faith and strong support for Israel. He also considers Roy Cooper and Andy Beshear, noting that they might face difficulty in winning their home states for the ticket. He suggests that Mark Kelly, a senator from Arizona, could be a good choice for national security and Ukraine support.

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Advice to Republicans and Tim Burchett's Unfortunate Remarks

🎦 52:52-55:29⏩

Jonathan offers advice to the Republican Party, warning them of the potential for a major mistake. He criticizes Tim Burchett's comments regarding Kamala Harris's appointment as Vice President, suggesting that these remarks could backfire and mobilize black voters to support Harris.

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JD Vance's Positions on Reproductive Rights and Menstrual Surveillance

🎦 55:30-57:59⏩

Jonathan highlights the extreme views of JD Vance, Trump's running mate, on reproductive rights. He points out Vance's strong opposition to abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, and his advocacy for menstrual surveillance by local law enforcement. He suggests that Vance's positions could further mobilize women and young voters to support Harris.

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JD Vance's Mischaracterization of Childless Cat Ladies

🎦 58:00-01:00⏩
:36
Jonathan criticizes JD Vance's comments about childless cat ladies, calling his rhetoric "insane" and arguing that he is alienating a significant portion of the electorate. He points out that this type of campaigning could alienate voters and further erode support for the Republican Party.

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Taylor Swift and the Power of Celebrity Endorsements

🎦 01:00:37-01:00⏩
:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential impact of Taylor Swift's political endorsements. He notes that the Republicans were apprehensive about Swift's potential endorsement of the Democrats in the previous election and highlights the power of celebrities to mobilize voters.

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James Lindsay's Demonization of Kamala Harris

🎦 01:00:51-01:01⏩
:35⏩
Jonathan criticizes James Lindsay's demonization of Kamala Harris, describing it as a form of "distilled evil" and comparing it to the Russian disinformation tactics. He expresses frustration with the use of identity politics and the lack of focus on policy issues in the Republican campaign.

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Republican Campaign Strategy and Lack of Policy Focus

🎦 01:01:36-01:02⏩
:44⏩
Jonathan questions the Republican campaign strategy and their lack of focus on policy issues. He suggests that their reliance on identity politics and divisive rhetoric is indicative of a lack of concrete policies to offer the electorate. He argues that this approach could backfire and cost them the election.

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Harris's Potential Campaign Strategy: Policy Focus and Biden's Economic Success

🎦 01:02:45-01:03⏩
:57⏩
Jonathan outlines Harris's potential campaign strategy. He suggests that she will focus on policy issues, including reproductive rights, environmental protection, and the economic success of the Biden administration. He believes that Harris will be able to build on the achievements of the Biden administration and appeal to voters who are concerned about these issues.

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Republican Campaign Tactics and Self-Inflicted Damage

🎦 01:03:58-01:04⏩
:21⏩
Jonathan critiques the Republican campaign tactics, arguing that their use of divisive rhetoric and identity politics is alienating voters and shrinking their base. He suggests that their strategy is self-destructive and will not lead to victory.

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Harris's Potential for Success and a Left-Wing Perspective

🎦 01:04:22-01:04⏩
:51⏩
Jonathan expresses his belief in Harris's potential for success. He acknowledges his own left-leaning perspective but argues that even from a strategic standpoint, the Republican campaign is flawed and could be improved with a more policy-focused approach. He suggests that the Republicans are missing opportunities to appeal to a broader audience.

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Republican Focus on Culture War Issues and Lack of Foreign Policy Expertise

🎦 01:04:52-01:05⏩
:21⏩
Jonathan criticizes the Republicans' focus on culture war issues and their lack of expertise on foreign policy. He argues that they are failing to address important issues like the ongoing war in Ukraine and the need to take a strong stance against Russia.

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Trump's Blaming the Secret Service and AOC's Inquiry

🎦 01:05:22-01:07⏩
:14⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's comments blaming the Secret Service for the assassination attempt. He criticizes Trump's attempt to deflect responsibility and highlights the resignation of the Secret Service director amid a bipartisan investigation. He also praises Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for raising a pertinent question about the Secret Service perimeter during the congressional hearing.

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Wrap up

🎦 01:07:15-01:09⏩
:58⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by summarizing his analysis and reiterating his support for Harris. He encourages viewers to challenge his arguments with respect and engage in a thoughtful discussion. He expresses his belief that Harris has a good chance of winning the election, particularly if she chooses a strong and capable running mate. He highlights the importance of her potential policies on Ukraine, which he believes would be more beneficial than the Republican stance.

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