Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"It's like imagine the AFD start erecting statues to Hitler, you'd be thinking, 'What are you doing?'"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:59⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video and introduces today's news update. Jonathan shares an anecdote about spending time with a channel supporter, Pierre Dupont, who had been volunteering in Kramatorsk.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Daily Losses
🎦 00:59-02:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily figures released by the Ukrainian General Staff regarding Russian losses for the day. The figures include personnel, tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, artillery systems, multiple rocket launch systems, and other equipment. Jonathan notes that these figures suggest that yesterday saw a high level of activity on the frontlines.
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Oryx Losses (10th October 2024)
🎦 02:35-08:05⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses for 10/10/2024 from Oryx, curated by Andrew Perpetua.
- He explains that Andrew's updates will be delayed today, so these figures are for the previous day (10/10/2024).
- Looking at combat losses, Jonathan highlights a one-and-a-half-to-one ratio in favour of Ukraine, which is not as favourable as in previous days.
- He goes on to express concern about the confirmation of a Ukrainian Patriot missile launcher and radar being taken out by the Russians. He speculates that the attack may have been carried out using Iskander missiles.
- Jonathan analyses Ukrainian losses, which include a damaged Patriot launcher, one abandoned tank, one abandoned infantry fighting vehicle, and a number of armoured personnel carriers and MRAPs that were both destroyed and abandoned. Jonathan notes the high proportion of destroyed and abandoned vehicles to those merely damaged. He further points out that most of this equipment is of Ukrainian or Western origin, as opposed to older, Soviet-era equipment.
- Moving on to Russian losses, Jonathan again highlights the high proportion of destroyed and abandoned vehicles. However, he reiterates that the loss of the Patriot system is a significant blow for Ukraine.
Shortage of Cemeteries in Russia
🎦 08:05-08:54⏩
- Jonathan discusses the news, reported in Russian media, that there is a severe shortage of cemeteries in Russia.
- He goes on to suggest that this points to a very high casualty rate amongst Russian soldiers in Ukraine, which Russia is keen to downplay.
Ukrainian Claims - Downed Aircraft
🎦 08:54-10:12⏩
- Good news for Ukraine: Jonathan reports Ukrainian claims that a Russian Su-25 has been shot down in the last 24 hours.
- He notes that although such events are often reported, it is rare to see photographic or video evidence, especially if the aircraft is brought down by longer-range air defence systems, such as the Patriot.
- Further to this, Jonathan reports that yesterday the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the downing of an Mi-8 helicopter in the Kharkiv direction, which means that there is most likely some form of visual evidence of the event.
- This claim is corroborated by other sources, which also report significant Russian losses in that area, including 63 casualties and several vehicles.
- Jonathan concludes by observing that the situation in the Kharkiv and Kursk regions continues to be very difficult for Ukraine, as Russia continues to push back in those areas.
Ukraine's Strategy in Kursk
🎦 10:12-10:56⏩
- Jonathan goes on to discuss the ongoing situation in Kursk, reminding viewers that Ukraine's strategy there has been to lure Russian troops and resources to the area.
- Therefore, he argues, Ukraine losing ground in Kursk is not necessarily a failure, as it serves to weaken Russia's efforts in other areas.
- However, he does acknowledge that Russia's retaking of territory in Kursk is still a cause for concern.
Attrition of Russian Forces
🎦 10:56-12:38⏩
Jonathan shows and comments on a post from a Telegram user called Dan, which describes the volume of Russian equipment and/or personnel being destroyed in the Novogradivka area on a daily basis. The user, claiming to be part of a Ukrainian military unit operating in that area, states that his unit alone is destroying in excess of 15 Russian targets daily, using IED-dropping drones. This figure does not take into account other sources of damage, such as FPV drones and artillery. Jonathan uses this anecdote to illustrate the huge losses that the Russians are suffering, despite their advance. Jonathan reports that, according to No Report, Russian forces are making another attempt to advance on the village of Synkivka, in the Sumy Oblast, with footage confirming a Russian mechanised attack. Military sources suggest that a Russian column of 30 vehicles approaching Ukrainian positions suffered heavy losses, with 15 vehicles reportedly destroyed. However, the result is that Russia appears to now control a larger area north of Liubimovka.
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Sabotage in Moscow
🎦 12:38-14:32⏩
- Jonathan reports on the activities of the Oblava movement, an anti-war group operating within Russia, who claim to have attempted to destroy a transformer supplying power to military-industrial facilities in Moscow. While details are still emerging, the suggestion that this group managed to carry out an attack in the heart of the capital will be very worrying for the Russian authorities, who have been keen to downplay and discredit internal opposition to the war.
Drone and Missile Attacks Overnight
🎦 14:32-23:20⏩
- Moving on to the subject of the overnight drone and missile attacks, Jonathan reports that Russia deployed a further 66 Shahed drones.
- Of these, 29 were intercepted, with a further 31 brought down by electronic warfare, something which Jonathan believes is becoming increasingly effective.
- This leaves four drones unaccounted for, although at the time of reporting none of these were thought to have reached their targets.
- Odessa appears to have been the main target of the attacks, with several powerful explosions reported.
- Jonathan reports that the city is being targeted almost every night.
- He goes on to cite reports from other sources that the attacks involved ballistic missiles and cluster munitions. Sadly, four people are known to have been killed in the attacks, including a 16-year-old girl.
- Further attacks were reported in Feodosia in occupied Crimea, where, five days after being targeted by Ukrainian drones, fuel tanks at an oil depot continued to explode. There were also reports of a major fire and a series of explosions at a Russian airbase in Kanskaya. Although the extent of the damage is not yet clear, local sources report that a drone struck an ammunition depot. A Russian Telegram channel claims that four missiles, 15 bombs and 41 UMPK devices were destroyed in the attack.
- Finally, Jonathan reports that, two nights ago, a Ukrainian Geranium-2 drone (the Russian version of the Iranian Shahed) destroyed a Shahed drone warehouse in the Krasnodar Territory, taking out an estimated 150 Shahed drones or warheads.
Russian Troop Movements
🎦 23:20-24:51⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russia has redeployed approximately 50,000 troops to the Kursk region from other areas where they had been involved in offensive operations. Jonathan speculates that this would suggest that Ukraine may have been able to make further territorial gains if these troops had remained in situ. Jonathan maintains that, in light of this, Ukraine's strategy in Kursk has been a success, as forcing Russia to redirect troops from other areas is hampering their progress along other parts of the front line.
Zelensky's European Trip
🎦 24:51-28:08⏩
- Jonathan reports that Zelensky has been very busy on the diplomatic front, visiting the Pope in Rome this morning, following a visit to France yesterday, where he met with President Macron.
- During a press conference in Paris yesterday, Zelensky highlighted the critical shortage of military equipment in eastern Ukraine, specifically mentioning the dire situation in Toretsk, which is reported to be about 50% controlled by Russian forces.
- He reiterated his frustration with what he perceives as Western reluctance to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons, arguing that these weapons are desperately needed if they are to push back the Russian advance. He also highlighted Ukraine's urgent need for more ammunition, missiles and attack drones.
Death in Captivity of Ukrainian Journalist
🎦 26:46-27:27⏩
- In other news, Jonathan reports the death of Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchina, who died while being transferred to Moscow, after being held captive by Russia for over a year. It is not yet clear what caused her death, but Jonathan is in no doubt that Russia is to blame.
Update on Ukrainian Energy Security
🎦 27:27-28:08⏩
- On a more positive note, the Ukrainian government claims that, following recent repairs, its nuclear power plants are ready for winter.
- In addition to this, the country has begun exporting energy to Slovakia, having received assurances that Slovakia will reciprocate should Ukraine experience energy shortages in the coming months.
- However, Jonathan predicts that Russia will most likely focus on targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure as winter sets in.
Russian Kinzhal Missile Carriers in Belarus
🎦 28:08-28:48⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern about the arrival in Belarus of a second MiG-31K jet, which is capable of carrying Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. The arrival of this aircraft, following closely on the tail of a similar deployment two days ago, suggests that Russia may be preparing to launch attacks on Ukraine from within Belarus, thereby benefitting from a degree of protection.
Instability in the North Caucasus
🎦 28:48-32:45⏩
- Jonathan reports on news of serious instability in the North Caucasus region, where a conflict between Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, and Russian senator Suleiman Kerimov, has escalated following the assassination of former deputy chairman of the Ingush government, Sheriff Alekandiev, near Moscow.
- Jonathan cites reports that this conflict is causing concern in Russia and could even lead to a war between Chechnya and Dagestan, forcing Russia to divert National Guard and Interior Ministry troops, as well as regular army units, to the region.
- Jonathan believes that such internal strife plays right into Ukraine's hands, as Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has led to a neglect of domestic issues and allowed these tensions to ferment.
- He points to the current situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a prime example of this, with Russia's ability to exert influence in the region being significantly weakened by events in Ukraine.
Steven Seagal's Support for Putin
🎦 32:45-33:57⏩
- On a lighter note, Jonathan pokes fun at Steven Seagal’s recent pledge of allegiance to Putin, joking about his appearance and questioning the sincerity of his commitment.
New Stalin Monument
🎦 33:57-34:33⏩
- Jonathan expresses his dismay at the unveiling of a new monument to Stalin in the city of Vologda, describing it as “revisionist history” and comparing it to the leaders of the AfD party in Germany erecting statues of Hitler.
Pierre's Visit
🎦 34:33-35:55⏩
- Jonathan shares his delight at an unexpected visit from Pierre Dupont, his “battle bus passenger in arms”, who popped in for a cup of tea on his way back to Ukraine.
Fox Update
🎦 36:03-37:19⏩
- In a segment that has become popular with viewers, Jonathan shares some heartwarming footage of a wild fox that has befriended a group of Ukrainian soldiers.
- The soldiers have adopted the fox, which appears to be in excellent health, with a beautiful shiny coat.
- Jonathan speculates that this is probably how dogs were first domesticated and expresses his admiration for the animal.
Wrap up
🎦 37:19-37:32⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear as to what is meant by "OS" in the quote from Telegram user Dan. Is this a recognised abbreviation, denoting equipment or personnel? I need clarification on this.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a multi-part video with several topics so I need to ensure that I approach each of the tasks methodically, following the guidance. First, I need to identify the title, date and part using the tags provided, ensuring that the date format is correct for a UK audience. Next, I need to break down the video into granular topics, ensuring that I use specific, quantified topic titles, numbering them sequentially. I then need to identify the timeframes for each topic using the correct timestamp format. Now that I have identified the topics and associated timeframes I can start to write summaries for each one, again, using the guidance provided. Once I'm happy with the summary, I need to pick a concise and appropriate quote from the video and highlight any queries.
