Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Putin always lied. So basically, he said there is no chance of us attacking a NATO country and then said that Finland was dragged into NATO... he genuinely doesn't see the reason - nonsense he said."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War Update for 17/12/2023 and jokes that he feels "rough as a badger's arse". The second part of the update will focus on military aid and geopolitics.
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European Military Aid and Support for Ukraine
🎦 00:22-08:02⏩
Jonathan discusses how Europe is preparing to take on more responsibility for supporting Ukraine militarily. He highlights comments made by German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, about the need for Europe to compensate for reduced support from Washington, and the need to rebuild European military industries over the next 5-8 years. Jonathan plays a clip from an interview with Dom Nicholls (from The Daily Telegraph) about a report by the Estonian Ministry of Defence on a military strategy for ensuring a Ukrainian victory. The report states that Ukraine could win the war in 3 years if the Ramstein Group (50 nations supporting Ukraine) committed 0.25% of their GDP annually towards military assistance to Ukraine. This equates to €120bn per year. Estonia has already pledged to do this. Jonathan summarises the points made by Mr Salms (Estonian representative):
- The Ramstein group needs to step up efforts to support Ukraine.
- Russia is estimated to be able to generate 130,000 soldiers every 6 months, of which 40,000 are deployed in formed, combat ready units. The remainder are undergoing training or are sent as individual reinforcements.
- The current rate of attrition for Russian troops is 50,000 killed or severely wounded every six months.
- Ukraine needs to be able to maintain, or increase, its rate of personnel and equipment production in line with Russia.
- Criticism of delays in ramping up industrial production by those supporting Ukraine are fair, but this increased attention will hopefully lead to Prime Ministers and Defence Ministers taking action.
- Estonia assesses that by early 2025, combined EU/US artillery ammunition (1.55mm) production will exceed 2 million rounds a year, which is almost enough to sustain the required level of attrition on Russian forces (estimated at 200,000 rounds/month).
- The cost of €120bn a year is not unreasonable, and is far less than the EU's response to the pandemic, which totalled €807bn.
- Ukraine can win the war if the will is there.
Jonathan agrees with Mr Salms's assessment that it is "mathematically doable" for Ukraine to win, but highlights the need for leadership.
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Macron: Halt Military Deliveries to the Gulf States
🎦 08:02-08:37⏩
Jonathan reports that French President, Emmanuel Macron, has announced that France will halt deliveries of military equipment to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. He adds that France, alongside the EU, are also looking into whether they can retrieve delivered equipment and divert it to Ukraine.
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US Slow Walking Military Aid to Ukraine?
🎦 08:37-12:20⏩
Jonathan refers back to Jake Sullivan's (US National Security Advisor) comments in an earlier video, and whether they support the theory that the US is intentionally slow-rolling military aid to Ukraine because they want to see Russia degraded over a longer period of time. He highlights comments made by Randy Mott, a Republican activist, who believes that fears of Russia collapsing into smaller regional states is a "delusional concern". Jonathan summarises Randy Mott's points:
- Is there anyone in Russia with enough support to overthrow Putin? Progozhin had a chance, but his allies in Moscow withdrew support. Putin has since dismantled Wagner and increased security around himself.
- The Russian economy is getting worse, but would this lead to rebellion? He notes that Russians did not rebel when the economic situation was much worse in the 1990s.
- Young men from influential families in Moscow and St Petersburg have been spared from fighting in Ukraine. Could revolts occur in the Asiatic provinces that are bearing the brunt of the fighting? If so, what would trigger this and who would lead such a movement?
- China will likely do everything it can to keep Russia afloat, although it is unlikely to provide military aid for fear of sanctions.
- Russia has already lost the war. It has effectively lost control of Sevastopol and is losing the ability to supply Crimea. The West will continue to supply Ukraine with enough military aid to prevent a major Russian offensive, particularly given that Russia's best troops and equipment have already been lost.
- Whilst the psychological impact of Ukraine recovering its territory would be significant, it is unclear whether this would destabilise Russia.
- The collapse of the Russian Federation would lead to smaller states suffering from the same issues, but with the positive outcome that the West would no longer be dealing with a deranged leader who poses a threat to global security.
Jonathan concludes by summarising Randy Mott's argument that the risk of increased US/NATO aid to Ukraine leading to the collapse of the Russian Federation is low, and that the impact of this would likely be more positive than negative.
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Ukraine Receives First Batch of New AQ-400 Sa'id Drones
🎦 12:20-16:32⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has received the first batch of the new AQ-400 Sa'id kamikaze drones, manufactured by Terminal Autonomy. He refers to an article in Forbes magazine about the drones, which are being seen as Ukraine's answer to the Iranian-made Shahed drones being used by Russia. Jonathan highlights the following points from the article:
- The drones are low cost and designed to be mass produced, with production expected to increase to 500/month by Q2 2024. Terminal Autonomy hope to be producing 1,000 drones/month.
- The compact design means that 30 drones can fit in a shipping container.
- The drones are made of plywood which makes them cheap and easy to produce as skilled labour is not required.
- The drones have a range of 750-900km (dependent on the engine) which puts a large swathe of Russia and occupied Crimea within range.
- They have a cruising speed of 140kph, which is similar to the Shahed drone, but can reach a terminal speed of 200kph.
- The Sa'id drone carries a 42kg warhead and has a number of payload options, including a thermobaric warhead or 122mm artillery rounds that spray shrapnel.
- They are able to overcome Russian jamming efforts by flying at a very low level (30m), making them difficult to jam.
- The drones can also be flown at a higher altitude (3,000m-10,000m) to force Russian air defences to use expensive missiles to shoot them down.
- An optional extra is a video link allowing the operator to select moving targets, but most Sa'id drones will attack pre-programmed targets such as command centres, fuel and ammunition dumps, and airfields.
Recent Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Territory
🎦 16:32-17:06⏩
Jonathan links the arrival of the new Sa'id drones to recent attacks by Ukraine on targets in Russia (including Taganrog air base in Rostov and Lipetsk Oblast). He welcomes these developments as it allows Ukraine to respond in kind to Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
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South Korean Arms Production
🎦 17:06-19:52⏩
In response to a user comment, Jonathan investigates South Korean artillery ammunition production, but was unable to find any data. He highlights the following:
- South Korea's arms sales totalled $17.3bn in 2022, making it one of the biggest winners of the war.
- The country has a well-developed domestic military supply chain because of the ongoing war with North Korea, which means it is able to produce military equipment more cheaply than other countries (e.g. in Europe). Poland is one such country that is buying and producing South Korean equipment under licence.
Jonathan refers to articles in the New York Times and Defense News to support his points:
- New York Times: South Korean arms exports rose 140% to a record $17.3bn in 2022, which included deals worth $12.4bn with Poland.
- Defense News: Poongsan Corporation, a South Korean ammunition manufacturer, reported that its defense exports in Q1 2023 increased by 66.9% to 147.5bn Won ($111m) compared to the previous year.
Jonathan speculates that South Korean ammunition production is likely being used to backfill stocks in other countries that are supplying Ukraine (e.g. the US).
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Ukraine Needs to Increase Mobilisation
🎦 19:52-20:42⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's need to increase mobilisation in light of comments by Ukrainian Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, who urged local authorities to increase their efforts. This follows comments by Kyrylo Budanov (Head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence) that Ukraine needs to increase mobilisation to maintain the existing strength of its armed forces (1.1 million personnel).
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Geopolitical News: Black Sea, Austria, Russia
🎦 20:42-24:38⏩
Jonathan provides the following geopolitical updates:
- Black Sea Mines: Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria will sign an agreement in January 2024 to begin clearing mines from the Black Sea. Jonathan highlights that this is a positive development as it allows these NATO countries to take on this dangerous task rather than Ukraine, and prevents Russia from disrupting these efforts.
- Austria Blocks Sanctions: Austria is yet to lift its block on the 12th round of EU sanctions against Russia because of its dissatisfaction at Austria's Raiffeisen Bank being placed on Ukraine's list of international war sponsors. Austria threatened to veto the sanctions package unless Raiffeisen Bank was removed from the list. Jonathan is critical of Austria's actions, likening them to those of Viktor Orban in Hungary.
- Putin: "Russia Won't Attack NATO": Putin has stated that Russia has no interest in going to war with NATO. This follows comments by President Biden that Russia may attack NATO countries if it is victorious in Ukraine. Putin described Biden's comments as nonsense. Putin did, however, confirm that Russia is in the process of recreating the Leningrad Military District in response to Finland joining NATO. Jonathan highlights that this directly contradicts his earlier statement that Russia will not attack a NATO country.
Border Blockades & Public Opinion in Russia
🎦 24:38-27:34⏩
Jonathan reports that as of the morning of 17/12/2023, over 2,000 trucks were stuck in a queue at the Polish-Ukrainian border because of blockades by Polish protestors. Jonathan plays a vox pop of elderly Russian women criticising Putin and the current situation in Russia. He notes that such criticism is becoming more common, and hopes that this will lead to change within Russia. He refers to an observation by Tim White (Twitter - @TWMCLtd) that there is a growing food crisis in Russia (eggs, Christmas Trees, bread), and that this could be a sign of increasing problems within Russia.
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US Disinformation Agent Jackson Hinkle and Alina Kava Break Up
🎦 27:34-29:34⏩
Jonathan discusses US disinformation agent, Jackson Hinkle, who is pro-Putin, and how his anti-Ukraine stance is confusing those who are pro-Palestine, leading them to become anti-Ukraine through association. He digresses and jokes about Hinkle's relationship with Alina Kava (Miss Russia), and how they have now broken up.
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Imagine Dragons Show Support for Ukraine
🎦 29:34-31:25⏩
Jonathan expresses his support for public displays of solidarity with Ukraine, and shows a clip of the band Imagine Dragons holding up a Ukrainian flag during a concert. He welcomes the band's actions, describing it as "really cool" and "incredibly important". He contrasts this with the actions of Elon Musk, who has amplified anti-Ukraine voices.
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Wrap Up
🎦 31:25-31:59⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He explains that he may not be able to post his planned frontline video update as he has family commitments. He thanks JR (who helps with the mapping for his videos), and those who support him financially via Buy Me a Coffee and PayPal.
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