Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"If there is not the same powerful artillery barrages on the first day we will not we will get stuck here."
Hello Team!
Jonathan reminds viewers of the meaning of the lines on his map. He shares a post from a Russian propagandist preparing the audience for lack of Russian action in coming months, saying Russia needs 5-10 times superiority over Ukraine to advance again. The post lists areas Russia needs to improve, including providing modern reconnaissance equipment and artillery to the army.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Sector (Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna)
- Not much to report in this sector
- Ilya Yevlash, Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson, says the enemy has not given up offensive actions in Kupyansk direction, with the task of capturing the city before onset of cold weather
- Military analyst Petro Chernyk states Russian forces have concentrated 100,000 personnel in Kupyansk-Lyman direction to distract Ukrainian forces from Bakhmut
- Jonathan speculates each area commander may be trying to scare central command into sending more troops to their area
Bakhmut Area
- Activity in usual places like Soledar, Bakhmutske, Toretsk
- ISW says neither side has confirmed gains in Bakhmut, though mappers disagree
- In southern Bakhmut area:
- Ukrainians continue to capitalize on momentum gathered over last month
- Deep State Map shows slight Ukrainian gain pushing Russians back across railway
- Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua show Ukrainian gains east of Klishchiivka across railway and north of Zelenopillya/Kurdyumivka
- If Ukrainians push further east it could threaten Ivangrad and allow them to encircle Bakhmut more closely
- Russian sources say situation is extremely difficult for them south of Bakhmut, with Ukrainian artillery causing problems
Avdiivka Area
- Russians have made expected gains given size of attacks, especially around Opytne and Vodyane
- Gains also at Pervomaiske and Spartak according to Deep State Map
- Andrew Perpetua notes enormous craters from unknown source in satellite imagery, along with intense shelling
- Russians failed to take control of slag heap at Avdiivka despite initial claims
- Good news from southwestern flank - despite Russian efforts to break through to Severny, they incurred significant losses and retreated
- Geolocated footage shows Russians advanced to treeline south of Novomykhailivka
- Russians increasingly resorting to heavy air and artillery strikes on Avdiivka infrastructure
- Contradictory claims about control of slag heap
- Huge amounts of footage of destroyed Russian equipment and repelled attacks
- Russian milbloggers realizing situation is very difficult, saying they are stuck and can't move on without heavy artillery
Southern Front
- Quiet around Velyka Novosilka according to both sides
- Around Vuhledar:
- Russian sources claim Ukrainians launched unsuccessful mechanized assault on Vodyane's eastern and northwestern outskirts
- Geolocated footage indicates Russians marginally advanced northwest of Vodyane
- Intensity of Ukrainian assaults subsided due to bad weather
- Ukrainians and Russians within 200-300m of each other in Vodyane
Other Frontline News
- Differing claims about success around Kreminna
- Potential use of JDAMs or something similar spotted in Novoprokopivka area
- Weather has been problematic over last 24 hours, making it a bit quieter than it might have been as drones unable to operate as effectively
Wrap up
Jonathan notes there has been a huge success at Berdyansk with an attack using Atacms. He has done a separate breaking news update on this on his A Tippling Philosopher channel and will link to it in the description. He signs off with his usual "Toodlepips!"
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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