Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Even if you granted that it was NATO's fault that Russia invaded... that is not a good enough excuse to invade a country and kill its inhabitants."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update for the 12th of November 2024.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses (11/11/2024)
🎦 00:12-04:47⏩
- Jonathan highlights the extraordinary figures from the Ukrainian General Staff report regarding Russian losses on the previous day, calling them "insane".
- Personnel: 1,950 lost (the highest single-day loss of the war, exceeding the previous record by almost 200).
- Tanks: 23 lost (a phenomenal number).
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles (APVs/AFVs): 81 lost (stupendous, potentially indicating Russian shortages).
- Artillery Systems: 38 lost (almost double the daily average).
- Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS): 4 lost (almost four times the daily average).
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 68 lost.
- Special Equipment: 6 pieces lost.
- Jonathan references analysis from Ragnar Gjartegumundsson, who notes:
- Most APV losses this year so far.
- MLRS, tank, and artillery losses far above the seven-day average.
- Improved strike ratio on both sides (although the exact meaning of "strike ratio" is unclear).
Ukrainian Troop Deployment in Kursk Region
🎦 04:48-05:43⏩
- Citing the Spanish newspaper El Pais, Jonathan reports that the number of Ukrainian troops involved in the operation in the Kursk region now surpasses those deployed in Donbas.
- Despite occasional shortages of weapons and equipment, there are no issues with personnel, suggesting good troop rotation in Kursk.
- This indicates the importance of Kursk to the Ukrainian strategy, potentially because holding Russian territory is seen as more valuable than retaking Ukrainian territory in negotiations.
33rd Assault Brigade Repels Russian Mechanised Assault in Donetsk
🎦 05:46-06:40⏩
- The 33rd Assault Brigade successfully repelled a Russian mechanised assault involving nine OVTs (likely a type of armoured vehicle) in an unspecified village in the Donetsk region.
- The report, which Jonathan cannot fully share due to potentially sensitive footage, highlights the effective use of Leopard 2A4 tanks against Russian armour.
- Russian losses: 29 killed, 19 wounded, 2 tanks destroyed, 6 BMPs/APCs destroyed.
- Heavy fighting continues in the area.
Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes in Ukraine
🎦 06:40-07:43⏩
- Ukraine was subjected to a massive wave of Russian drone attacks overnight (110 drones).
- Ukrainian Air Defences: Shot down 46 drones.
- Electronic Warfare: Disabled 60 drones.
- Only 2 drones reached their targets (less than 2% penetration rate).
- Missiles: Ukraine was less successful in intercepting missiles:
- 0 out of 2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles intercepted.
- 0 out of an unknown number of S-300 ballistic missiles intercepted (these are difficult to shoot down, especially when launched from near the border).
Russia Targets Supermarkets in Kharkiv
🎦 07:43-08:04⏩
- According to Euromaidan Press, Russia is now targeting supermarkets in Kharkiv, potentially to worsen conditions for the nearly 1 million residents as winter approaches.
- This shift from attacking power plants to essential services is described by Jonathan as "war criminal activity".
British Intelligence Assessment on Russian Drone Attacks
🎦 08:04-08:27⏩
- A British defence intelligence assessment, reported by The Telegraph, warns that Russia is likely to intensify kamikaze drone attacks on Ukrainian positions.
- Russia is establishing new launch sites near the border with NATO allies.
- NATO allies believe Putin aims to recapture territory lost to Ukraine in the Kursk region before Trump's inauguration on January 20th, 2025.
Russian Missile Strike Kills Family in Kryvyi Rih
🎦 08:28-09:08⏩
- Jonathan describes a heartbreaking missile strike on a residential building in Kryvyi Rih, resulting in the deaths of an entire family.
- The victims include:
- Olena (32 years old)
- Kirillov (10 years old)
- Dmitry (2 years old)
- Ulyana (2 months old)
- Jonathan expresses his disgust at the Russian attack.
Russian "Friendly Fire" Incident in Almazna
🎦 09:08-09:31⏩
- Russia accidentally dropped a 500kg aerial bomb on one of their own settlements, Almazna.
- Residents had to be evacuated when the bomb landed next to a residential building.
- Astra reports that this is the 142nd such "friendly fire" incident.
Ukrainian Strike on Oil Depot in Staryi Oskol (Belgorod)
🎦 09:31-09:52⏩
- Ukrainians targeted an oil depot, Oskolnetsnab, in Staryi Oskol, Belgorod region, overnight.
- The extent of the damage is unknown.
- Russia claims only one tank caught fire and the blaze was quickly extinguished (according to Governor Gladkov).
Russian Strikes on Kramatorsk
🎦 09:53-10:43⏩
- Jonathan notes that Kramatorsk was targeted by Russian strikes yesterday, causing injuries, power outages, and fires.
- He expresses sadness at the attacks, having stayed in Kramatorsk in February.
- There is no official comment on the extent of the damage yet.
- Jonathan mentions the charity thebase.ua, which was previously based in Kramatorsk, and hopes everyone there is safe.
Rant on Disinformation and Russian War Crimes (Triggered by Elon Musk & Jeffrey Sachs)
🎦 10:44-16:36⏩
- Jonathan explains his frustration with a Facebook argument about Russian war crimes, specifically the execution of Ukrainian POWs.
- The argument was triggered by his rant about Elon Musk and Jeffrey Sachs spreading disinformation, particularly regarding NATO expansionism as the cause of the war.
- Jonathan's Points:
- Even if NATO expansionism played a role, it doesn't justify Russia's invasion and atrocities.
- NATO expansionism doesn't explain the execution of Ukrainian POWs (over 100 video documented cases).
- NATO expansionism doesn't explain the bombing of residential buildings (e.g., the family killed in Kryvyi Rih).
- NATO expansionism doesn't explain the targeting of supermarkets in Kharkiv with cluster munitions.
- He provides examples of Russian war crimes (blowing up a dam, executing POWs).
- Jonathan's Frustration with Disinformation & Lack of Critical Thinking:
- He criticizes people who readily accept disinformation from sources like Musk and Sachs.
- He expresses disappointment in those who claim to be critical thinkers but reject evidence that contradicts their pre-existing opinions (e.g., refusing to watch a lecture by Alexander Stubb debunking Mearsheimer's arguments).
- He laments the normalization of Russia's terrible actions and the degradation of the information space.
- Jonathan's Call to Action:
- He feels compelled to "fight harder" against disinformation and in support of Ukraine.
Russian Counteroffensive in Kursk Region Turns into Disaster
🎦 16:36-18:29⏩
- Citing the German tabloid BILD, Jonathan reports that the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has become a disaster.
- The offensive, ongoing for three days, has resulted in huge Russian losses with minimal gains (only two small villages retaken).
- Jonathan references Reporting from Ukraine's video showing a Russian attack towards Malaya Lokhina, highlighting their attempts to cut off Ukrainian forces and the heavy losses they are suffering due to mines and drones.
- Despite the losses, Russia is grinding away at Ukrainian positions.
- Ukraine's Strategy in Kursk:
- Ukraine has deployed good troops and is ensuring adequate ammunition and troop rotation.
- Kursk is a critical part of Zelenskyy's victory plan, hence the strong defence.
Putin's Deadline for Retaking Kursk Region & North Korean Involvement
🎦 18:30-21:49⏩
- Putin has ordered the Kursk region to be back under Russian control by January 20th, 2025 (coinciding with Trump's inauguration).
- This deadline has been repeatedly pushed back.
- Ukraine will likely try to hold Kursk for as long as possible due to its strategic value.
- Kremlin's Goals:
- Use the Kursk counteroffensive to gain momentum and advance into the Sumy region of Ukraine.
- North Korean Involvement:
- A new US assessment concludes that Russia has assembled an assault force to retake Kursk without pulling soldiers from eastern Ukraine, allowing them to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously.
- This is likely due to the influx of North Korean soldiers (estimated at 12,000).
- Ukraine's Dilemma:
- Ukraine's commitment to Kursk, initially a successful strategy, is now complicated by the North Korean troops.
- The West's inaction regarding North Korea's involvement puts Ukraine in a difficult position.
- Escalation near Velikonovoselka:
- Russia has also begun conducting platoon-sized assaults towards Makarivka and Rivnopil, south of Velikonovoselka.
- This indicates an attempt to retake territory lost during Ukraine's 2023 summer offensive.
Russia's Population May Be 50 Million Lower Than Official Figures
🎦 21:49-25:07⏩
- Jonathan discusses a report suggesting that Russia's population may be 50 million lower than official census data due to falsification (source: an official Russian newspaper).
- Implications:
- Impacts mobilization prospects (fewer people to draw from).
- Raises questions about the accuracy of Russian demographic statistics.
- Reasons for Population Discrepancy:
- Declining birth rates.
- War deaths.
- Emigration/self-exile (fleeing mobilization).
- Brain drain.
- People leaving due to crumbling infrastructure and resources.
- Underreporting/falsification of data.
- Economic Impact of Injuries:
- Jonathan points out that the reduced population doesn't even account for the large number of injured and incapacitated soldiers.
- These individuals will struggle to reintegrate into the economy and will likely draw on the welfare state, creating further pressure.
Russia's Economic Crisis & Dissent within the Kremlin
🎦 25:08-29:52⏩
- Jonathan discusses Russia's economic crisis, fuelled by Western sanctions and the war, and the resulting dissent within the Kremlin.
- Key Points from Anders Aslund's Op-Ed (as summarised and partially read by Jonathan):
- Western sanctions are finally having a significant impact.
- Russian business leaders are starting to openly criticize the Central Bank's handling of the crisis, particularly Governor Elvira Nabiullina's interest rate hikes (current official rate is 9%).
- Prominent oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska, Alexei Mordashov, and Sergei Chemezov (CEO of Rostec) have voiced concerns about the rate hikes, fearing they will lead to bankruptcy and become "more dangerous than the disease" (inflation).
- Many independent economic experts have fled the country to avoid imprisonment, leaving the debate dominated by non-economists.
- Nabiullina, who reportedly tried to resign at the start of the war, is now facing pressure and may be dismissed.
- Putin even publicly mocked her at a recent BRICS summit.
- There is concern that Putin might replace her with an unqualified loyalist who will slash interest rates, leading to hyperinflation, capital flight, and a ruble collapse.
- Jonathan's Analysis:
- Russia's economic crisis is a direct consequence of Putin's invasion and the resulting sanctions.
- The only way to stabilize the economy is to end the war and withdraw from Ukraine.
- Russia is caught in a sunk cost fallacy, unwilling to admit defeat and cut its losses.
US Role and the Potential Impact of a Trump Presidency
🎦 29:52-32:16⏩
- Importance of US Sanctions:
- Jonathan emphasizes the importance of the US maintaining and strengthening sanctions on Russia.
- Potential Trump Actions and Their Impact:
- If Trump increases US LNG production and oil drilling, it could lower global energy prices, potentially harming Russia economically while allowing the US to reduce aid to Ukraine.
- However, this depends on the sanctions remaining in place.
- Economic War vs. Conventional War:
- Jonathan believes the economic war is arguably more important than the conventional war. If Russia can't afford the war, it can't continue.
- However, Russia's access to manpower (including North Korean troops) may offset this to some extent.
- Trump's Call for De-escalation and Russia's Response:
- Jonathan recalls Trump's alleged message to Putin not to escalate.
- Russia has clearly ignored this, escalating with actions like blowing up the dam and bringing in North Korean troops.
- Trump's Potential Dilemma:
- If Russia continues to escalate despite Trump's calls for de-escalation, it could force him to take a stronger stance (potentially leading to further escalation).
- Russia might try to bait Trump into taking actions that benefit them.
Wrap up
🎦 32:16-33:18⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and their support.
- He gives a shout-out to viewers who have supported him through Buy Me a Coffee.
- He congratulates Jan Nuggerwich on having twins and offers humorous advice based on his own experience as a father of twins (recommending his book "The Survival Guide for Dads").
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
In topic 2, Ragnar Gjartegumundsson mentions an "improved strike ratio". It's unclear what this refers to exactly (artillery strikes, airstrikes, missile engagements, etc.). Clarification on how this ratio is calculated would be helpful.
In topic 4, the report mentions "nine OVTs". I'm unsure what type of vehicle OVT refers to. More information on this vehicle type would be beneficial.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
TASK 1 (Title, Date, Part):
I will identify the components of the YouTube video title related to the title, date, and part.
I will remove the date and part from the title to get the actual title.
I will reformat the date from YYYYMMDD to DD/MM/YYYY.
I will extract the part letter if it exists.
TASK 2 (Topic Titles):
I will carefully read through the transcript and identify distinct topics discussed in the video.
I will ensure that the first topic is "Hello Team" and the last is "Wrap up".
I will create concise, specific, and quantified titles for each topic, adhering to the provided rules and guidelines (e.g., Ukrainian spellings, separating by country/category).
TASK 3 (Topic Timeframes):
I will determine the start and end timestamps for each topic identified in TASK 2.
I will ensure the timestamps are in the correct format (MM:SS or HH:MM:SS) and that they cover the entire video with no significant gaps.
TASK 4 (Topic Summaries):
I will summarise the key points for each topic, including context, sources credited, Jonathan's opinions, and insights.
I will use bullet points/numbered lists as appropriate and adhere to the specified formatting guidelines.
TASK 5 (Quote):
I will select a significant, meaningful, or humorous quote from the transcript.
I will ensure the quote is concise, makes sense out of context, and is grammatically correct.
TASK 6 (Queries):
I will honestly record any aspects of the tasks or transcript that I did not understand.
I will seek clarification rather than making incorrect assumptions.
