Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News

"If you are cool with what Trump has just said about the US internal security forces, if you are cool with that, that is a huge worry, and it's this move towards authoritarianism."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:32⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He thanks those who donated during recent live streams, including Mark Biskew, Dave Davis and David L. Jonathan expresses his gratitude to all members and supporters of the channel.

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Lithuania extends agricultural sanctions against Belarus

🎦 00:32-01:05⏩

Lithuania has extended agricultural sanctions against Belarus. This includes a ban on the import of 2,800 items including food, alcohol and tobacco. The ban came into force on 3rd June 2024. However, transit of these goods through Lithuania is still permitted.

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Czech Republic to pay for Ukrainian refugees who want to return home

🎦 01:05-01:57⏩

The Czech Republic has announced a pilot project to pay for Ukrainian refugees to return to Ukraine. This will run from June to November. The cost of bus tickets, patient transport and ambulances (for up to 30 patients) will be covered. 5.5 million Czech Koruna has been allocated to the program. Refugees will only be able to use the scheme once. This may be an attempt to encourage refugees to return to safer areas of Ukraine and to counter draft dodging.

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South African ANC party loses majority in recent elections

🎦 01:57-04:42⏩

South Africa's ruling party, the ANC, has lost its majority after recent elections, securing 40% of the vote. Although the ANC will need to form a coalition, it remains the largest party. The centre-right Democratic Alliance made gains. Jonathan highlights potential reasons for this shift, including public dissatisfaction over issues like energy blackouts, infrastructure problems, corruption and inefficient spending. Jonathan also questions South Africa's support for Russia, citing "secret" military equipment shipments to Russia.

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Claudia Scheinbaum elected as first female and Jewish president of Mexico

🎦 04:42-06:08⏩

Claudia Scheinbaum has become the first woman and first Jewish person to be elected as president of Mexico. Jonathan acknowledges the significant challenges she faces, particularly concerning drug cartels and safety. He suggests that the US, as the primary source of demand for drugs, shares some responsibility for the issues caused by cartels.

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Serbian President Vucic's party wins local elections, but protests erupt over alleged irregularities

🎦 06:08-07:23⏩

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's party has secured a landslide victory in local elections, winning in 85 out of 89 municipalities. However, protests have broken out in response to allegations of electoral manipulation and pressure on voters. Jonathan suggests that Vucic, feeling secure with Putin's support, may be emboldened in his actions.

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Hungary undecided on peace summit participation due to Russia's absence

🎦 07:23-09:35⏩

Hungary is undecided about participating in Ukraine's global peace summit due to Russia's absence. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto argues that the summit is pointless without Russia's involvement, stating that Hungary is not at war with Russia. Jonathan expresses his disapproval of Szijjarto's stance, drawing a parallel with ignoring a victim of an assault and thereby siding with the perpetrator.

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Belgium proposes stripping Hungary of EU voting rights

🎦 09:35-10:06⏩

Belgium, currently holding the EU presidency, has taken the unprecedented step of urging EU governments to consider revoking Hungary's voting rights due to its pro-Russian stance. This comes as Hungary is set to take over the EU presidency next month.

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French National Rally leader campaigns against Macron's support for Ukraine

🎦 10:06-12:07⏩

Jordan Bardella, leader of France's far-right National Rally, is campaigning against President Macron's support for Ukraine, accusing Macron of "preparing a European army" and "sharing French nuclear weapons." Bardella claims these are dangerous ambitions. He suggests that voting for his party would prevent French citizens from being sent to fight and die in Ukraine, aligning with Russian propaganda.

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Protests in Georgia over controversial "foreign agents" law

🎦 12:07-12:32⏩

Protests continue in Georgia following the signing of a controversial "foreign agents" law. Despite President Salome Zourabichvili's veto, the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party used its constitutional power to pass the bill.

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Court hearing for Gagauzia leader in Moldova amidst pro-Kremlin tensions

🎦 12:32-13:49⏩

A court hearing is scheduled in Moldova for Eugenia Gutal, leader of the Gagauzia autonomy, regarding allegations of illegal financing for the banned pro-Kremlin Shor Party. Bomb threats, later proven false, were made before the hearing. Jonathan highlights the similarities between Gagauzia and Transnistria, both regions with significant Russian influence and information warfare.

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Kazakhstan removes Taliban from list of terrorist organisations

🎦 13:49-17:11⏩

Kazakhstan has removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev states that this is to foster economic interaction with Afghanistan. Jonathan ponders the implications of this decision, questioning whether engagement and integration are more effective than isolation in influencing the Taliban. He delves into the psychology of religion, suggesting that belief in God often thrives in war-torn and insecure nations where people are disenfranchised and lack existential security. He contrasts this with Nordic states, which have lower levels of religious belief and stronger welfare systems. Jonathan views Russia's similar removal of the Taliban from its terrorist list as a cynical attempt to court "bad actors" like Iran, North Korea, and the Taliban, rather than a genuine effort to aid Afghanistan.

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UK Labour Party shifts to the right ahead of general elections

🎦 17:11-21:43⏩

The UK's Labour Party is projected to win the upcoming general election, with polls indicating a significant lead over the Conservatives. Numerous Conservative politicians are resigning, anticipating defeat. In an effort to secure a victory, Labour, under the leadership of Keir Starmer, has shifted to the right, distancing itself from left-wing figures like Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott. This strategic move aims to capture the centre ground, mirroring Tony Blair's approach in 1997. Jonathan observes that Labour is actively courting centrist voters by promoting policies on defence and immigration that traditionally appeal to Conservative voters.

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Labour leader Keir Starmer announces 14 ex-military candidates to bolster defence credentials

🎦 21:43-22:07⏩

To further solidify Labour's image as a party capable of handling defence matters, Keir Starmer is set to unveil 14 former military personnel as Labour candidates for the upcoming UK general election. This strategic move aims to assure voters that Labour is equally committed to national security, a domain often perceived as a Conservative stronghold. Notable candidates include Alistair Khan, a former Royal Marines Colonel; Louise Jones, a former army intelligence officer; and Calvin Bailey, a former RAF commanding officer.

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Jonathan criticises Fox News interview with Trump for being "softball"

🎦 22:07-24:48⏩

Jonathan criticises a Fox News interview with Donald Trump, deeming it "softball" for not challenging his statements. He expresses concern over Trump's intention to fire "woke generals" if elected, viewing it as a purge of experienced military leadership and a dangerous move towards authoritarianism. He also raises concerns about Trump's promise to grant immunity from prosecution to local police, likening it to the lack of accountability seen in Russia's security services. Jonathan believes that Trump's potential return to power would be detrimental to Ukraine, as he would likely install pro-Russian figures in key positions, reversing US support for Ukraine.

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George Clooney assembles team to combat Russian propaganda

🎦 24:48-26:08⏩

Jonathan revisits the earlier topic of Russian propaganda and highlights George Clooney's initiative to assemble a team to counter it. He draws a parallel between Clooney's efforts and the actions of wealthy individuals like Warren Buffett, George Soros, and Bill Gates who use their resources to address global issues. Jonathan sees this as a positive step towards combating the spread of pro-Russian narratives, particularly those disseminated by organisations like the Grayzone, which he labels a mouthpiece for Russian propagandists.

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Russian ship delivers stolen Ukrainian grain to Syria via Black Sea

🎦 26:08-26:44⏩

Jonathan raises the issue of Russia continuing to steal Ukrainian grain. He reports that a Russian ship, the Matros Koshka, owned by a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation, has transported stolen Ukrainian wheat from occupied Crimea to Tartus in Syria, transiting the Bosphorus Strait. He questions how to effectively stop these "ghost fleets" from operating and further exploiting Ukraine's resources.

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China deflects criticism and claims to support peace in Ukraine

🎦 26:44-27:35⏩

In response to accusations from Zelensky that China is undermining his peace summit efforts, China has defended its position, stating that it has consistently supported peace in Ukraine. A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry claims that China has never "fanned the fire or fuelled the flames." Jonathan sees this as a response to Zelensky's accusations of China discouraging countries from attending the peace summits in Saudi Arabia and Switzerland. He reminds viewers that China and Russia declared a "no-limits" partnership shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While China maintains it has not provided weapons or ammunition to Russia, Jonathan suggests they have assisted in almost every other way.

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China demands discounted gas prices from Russia

🎦 27:35-29:06⏩

Jonathan reports that negotiations for a significant gas pipeline deal between Russia and China have stalled. The Financial Times reveals that China is leveraging Russia's desperation to sell its gas by demanding prices comparable to heavily subsidised Russian domestic rates. China has also committed to purchasing a fraction of the pipeline's planned annual capacity. Jonathan observes that China is the dominant player in this scenario, fully aware that Russia has limited options for selling its gas due to sanctions and the closure of the Nord Stream pipeline. He predicts that Russia will eventually concede to China's demands, highlighting concerns within Russia about becoming a vassal state of China.

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Ukrainian forces allegedly engage Russian troops in Syria

🎦 29:06-30:25⏩

Jonathan discusses reports published by the Kyiv Post alleging that Ukrainian GUR fighters, in collaboration with Syrian rebels, are engaging and eliminating Russian armed forces personnel in southern Syria, including the Golan Heights. The report is based on a video reportedly from March 2024. While acknowledging the need for caution with such reports, Jonathan finds it plausible. He theorises that Ukraine is targeting Russia's operations in places like Sudan (for resources) and Syria (for hydrocarbons and strategic influence) to weaken their ability to sustain the war effort in Ukraine.

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Wrap up

🎦 30:25-30:33⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses hope that they found the information interesting and useful.

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