Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News, N. Korea & Vietnam Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"So if you're still there saying, oh, Russia aren't that bad, you need to TNT your brain and just start again."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, a Ukraine War News Update, part three for the 20th of June 2024. He is getting ready for the England Euro 2024 football match and mentions recording a "fab" and "edifying" conversation with Jonathan Fink and Anna from Ukraine, which will be on Jonathan Fink's channel tomorrow at 6 pm UK time, and then mirrored on ATPG a couple of days later.
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Putin's Visit to North Korea: A Sign of Desperation and Shifting Power Dynamics
🎦 00:35-03:42⏩
Jonathan analyses Putin’s recent visit to North Korea, highlighting Putin’s desperation for support. He dissects images of Putin with Lukashenko and Kim Jong-un, pointing out the shifting power dynamics evident in their body language. Putin, once in a relaxed position of power, now appears almost subservient to Kim Jong-un, reflecting Russia's weakened global standing. Jonathan argues that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was his worst, pushing Russia into a corner where its only allies are North Korea, Iran, and to an extent, China. He suggests that countries like India are primarily interested in exploiting Russia’s need for allies by securing cheap hydrocarbons.
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Putin in Vietnam: Strengthening Ties Amidst International Disputes
🎦 03:42-11:52⏩
Jonathan explores Putin's visit to Vietnam, analysing a Guardian article on the subject. The article highlights Vietnam and Russia’s agreement to strengthen ties, including defence and security cooperation, despite US criticism. Jonathan reads from the article, noting Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy,” which involves avoiding taking sides in international disputes, including the war in Ukraine. He compares this pragmatic approach to the realpolitik employed by many Global South nations navigating a world dominated by powerful countries. He provides context by outlining Vietnam's complex geopolitical situation, including its strengthening ties with the US and its allies, its historical ties with Russia stemming from the Soviet era, and its ongoing balancing act between the US and China. He concludes by acknowledging that while Vietnam is a manufacturing powerhouse, Russia’s economic sanctions limit the potential for significant trade benefits.
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The Growing Russia-North Korea Threat: Analysis and Concerns
🎦 11:52-19:42⏩
Jonathan pivots back to the Russia-North Korea alliance, sharing analysis from the podcast “Pod Save the World”. The podcast, featuring Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes, discusses Putin’s visit to North Korea and the implications of their newly announced defence pact. They highlight concerns over the transfer of weapons and technology between the two nations, particularly in light of North Korea's history of provocation. Jonathan agrees with their assessment that the alliance poses a significant threat to South Korea, the United States, Ukraine, and the international order. He sees it as a clear indication that Russia, now aligned with one of the world's most notorious dictatorships, is undeniably a bad actor in the conflict.
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The Right Wing's Embrace of Russian Propaganda and the 2024 US Election
🎦 19:42-25:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the concerning trend of Russian propaganda infiltrating mainstream American political discourse, particularly within right-wing circles. He calls out prominent figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, J.D. Vance, Elon Musk, Jackson Hinkle, and David Sachs for disseminating pro-Russian narratives. He argues that Putin's alliance with North Korea should serve as a wake-up call for those who downplay Russia's role in the conflict. Jonathan believes this alliance clearly demonstrates Russia's villainous nature and exposes the fallacy of viewing Russia as anything other than a hostile actor. He criticizes the right wing for pushing this pro-Putin agenda, arguing they are actively promoting a dangerous and misleading narrative.
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Jackson Hinkle's Pro-Russia Activities and the Challenges of Countering Disinformation
🎦 25:30-28:52⏩
Jonathan scrutinises the activities of Jackson Hinkle, an American political commentator known for his staunch pro-Russian stance. He criticizes Hinkle's blatant dissemination of Russian propaganda and questions why he hasn't been investigated as a foreign agent given his engagement with Russian and Chinese officials. Jonathan acknowledges the complexities of addressing such individuals, highlighting the tension between countering harmful rhetoric and upholding freedom of speech. He grapples with the dilemma of how to effectively challenge such dangerous propaganda without inadvertently amplifying it by making Hinkle a martyr for his cause.
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Trump's Potential VP Picks and the Impact on the 2024 Election
🎦 28:52-36:50⏩
Jonathan analyses the potential impact of Trump’s choice of running mate on the 2024 US presidential election. He suggests that JD Vance and Marco Rubio are the current frontrunners for the VP slot. He expresses concern over Vance’s anti-Ukraine stance, highlighting the potential for this to alienate moderate Republicans and pro-Ukraine voters who were considering supporting Haley. Jonathan argues that Trump, if strategically minded, should adopt a pro-Ukraine position to solidify his base and attract moderate voters, potentially securing a victory. He criticizes Trump for potentially prioritizing loyalty over strategic decision-making, as evidenced by past support for weaker candidates who align with his views.
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EU Sanctions, Economic Struggles, and the Importance of Political Support for Ukraine
🎦 36:50-48:37⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the economic impact of the war, reporting that the EU will ban two more Russian billionaires and reinstate tariffs on certain Ukrainian agricultural imports. He suggests that the tariff reinstatement stems from concerns about Ukrainian goods undercutting EU producers. He then cites analysis by Janis Kluge, a Russian economics expert, who highlights the increasing pressure on the Russian economy. Kluge argues that the Central Bank's efforts to curb inflation are failing and that sanctions are creating significant challenges. Jonathan expands on this, outlining the growing economic and political pressures on Russia and arguing that the country's only remaining strengths are its larger population compared to Ukraine, China's ambiguous support, and its continued success in dominating the information space. He emphasizes that this information warfare, aimed at undermining international support for Ukraine, is Russia’s most potent weapon. Jonathan contends that if political support for Ukraine dwindles, particularly from the US and EU, Russia could still win the war, despite its current struggles. He ends by highlighting the need for continued and even increased support for Ukraine to ensure its victory.
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Houthi Attack in the Red Sea and Wrap Up
🎦 48:37-49:36⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions an incident in the Red Sea where Houthi rebels sank a ship carrying Russian coal to Jordan, showcasing the ongoing maritime conflict. He signs off, thanking viewers for their support and encouraging them to share their thoughts on the discussed topics.
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