Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"I think this is an absolute must. It should happen."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 12th May 2024, focusing on Military aid/equipment for Ukraine as well as Geopolitics.
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UK to deliver largest military aid package to Ukraine
🎦 00:25-02:40⏩
Jonathan explains that this is likely the £500 million aid package announced recently.
- The package includes 4 million rounds of ammunition, more than 1,600 missiles, including Starstreak Manpads, Brimstone and possibly Sea Ram missiles.
- 400 vehicles are also included, although the types are unconfirmed but 160 Husky vehicles are included.
US Military Aid for Ukraine
🎦 02:40-04:10⏩
Jonathan notes that the US is also sending a significant amount of military aid to Ukraine.
- More than 100 Bradley fighting vehicles and 100 M113 APCs will be sent.
- He clarifies that Humvees are not MRAPs (as he previously thought). MRAPs were developed to offer better protection from IEDs.
- The US has also announced a $400 million package that includes MRAPs and Humvees but quantities are unclear (possibly up to 1,000 Humvees).
UK to send 114 armoured vehicles including 97 Scimitars to Ukraine?
🎦 04:10-07:21⏩
Jonathan thanks Clive Dunning for the heads-up about this news item, crediting him as the source.
- 114 Combat Vehicle Reconnaissance (Tracked) (CVRT) vehicles including 97 Scimitars are being disposed of by the British Army and may be sent to Ukraine.
- Clive Lewis MP (Norwich South) submitted a question about this to the MOD.
- James Cartlidge, Minister of State for Defence has confirmed this.
- Jonathan notes an interesting debate between "defence nuts" in the comments about the merits of sending the vehicles and spares to Ukraine.
UK to retire AS90 Self Propelled Guns: Will they all go to Ukraine?
🎦 07:21-09:43⏩
- The UK is retiring its AS90 self-propelled guns and replacing them with 14 Boxer RCH 155 (remote controlled howitzers) (jointly produced with Germany). A further 10 are on order but not expected for 1-2 years.
- 50 AS90s have already been sent to Ukraine (33 initially and a further 17).
- Britskiy (twitter source) claims that more are pledged.
- Of the UK's remaining fleet of 39, some may not be fully operational.
- Jonathan is concerned that this will leave the UK short, especially given that the Boxers won't arrive for some time.
France: €3bn in military aid to Ukraine will likely increase
🎦 09:43-11:06⏩
- Jean-Louis Thiriot (Vice President of the French Defence Committee) has said that it is likely that France will need to increase the €3 billion already pledged in military aid for Ukraine.
- France believes that defending Ukraine is in their national interest.
- He added that whilst €3bn is not an insignificant amount, this will not be enough should the US stop supporting Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes the rhetoric coming from France and hopes that this will be backed up with increased aid.
Latvia to send domestically produced drones and radar systems to Ukraine
🎦 11:06-12:15⏩
- Latvia is to send domestically produced drones and radar systems to Ukraine.
- Latvia has been one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters since the start of the war, committing an incredible 0.25% of their GDP to Ukraine every year in military aid.
- This has amounted to €392 million ($490 million) since February 2022.
Netherlands to accelerate delivery of air defence and artillery shells to Ukraine
🎦 12:15-12:50⏩
- Mark Rutte, leader of the Netherlands has stated that they will be accelerating the delivery of air defence and artillery ammunition to Ukraine.
- Jonathan mentions the ongoing issues in the Netherlands forming a coalition government as a result of the reluctance to work with Geert Wilders (PVV party) who is considered pro-Russia.
Australia to send more RBS-70 MANPADs to Ukraine
🎦 12:50-13:33⏩
- Jonathan reports that Australia will send a batch of RBS-70 MANPADs with laser guidance systems to Ukraine.
- He jokes about the size of the system (and whether he would be able to carry it!)
- He thanks Australia for this, joking about his Australian accent.
Germany: Ukrainians with residency and jobs can stay
🎦 13:33-14:37⏩
- Ukrainians in Germany who have a job and residency permit will be allowed to stay, even if Ukraine tries to force them to return to fight.
- This was confirmed by Olaf Scholz.
- Jonathan does not believe that the German government will try to force Ukrainians without residency permits to return to Ukraine.
North Korea may send new guided MLRS to Russia
🎦 14:37-16:52⏩
- It is possible that North Korea may send new 214mm Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) with guided projectiles to Russia.
- This is following the news that North Korea has already sent ballistic missiles and artillery ammunition to Russia (at least 11,000 containers).
- 50% of the missiles are reported to have failed.
- Jonathan is disappointed by South Korea who have expressed concerns about North Korea but are still refusing to send military aid to Ukraine. He believes they should be doing more.
Germany: Could allies protect Western Ukraine's airspace from NATO territory?
🎦 16:52-20:23⏩
- German lawmakers have suggested that allies could protect western Ukraine's airspace from NATO territory (Poland/Romania).
- This has also been discussed by Polish officials.
- Several German lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition parties support the idea.
- Anton Hofreiter (Green Party) believes that this should not be ruled out longer term.
- Agnieszka Brugger (Green Party) has also said that it would be right to station air defence systems on the borders with neighbouring countries.
- Roderick Kiesewetter (CDU) believes that Western countries should shoot down Russian UAVs, comparing it to the US protecting Israel's airspace without becoming directly involved in conflicts.
- Marcus Faber (FDP) agrees that air defence should be used to protect Western Ukraine's airspace.
- Jonathan thinks this is a great idea.
US: Ukraine is not ready to negotiate with Russia
🎦 20:23-21:08⏩
- The US believes that Ukraine is not ready to negotiate with Russia.
- Jonathan agrees, stating that Ukraine should not be forced to the negotiating table.
- Former US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, has said that Ukraine is not in a strong enough position.
- Jonathan notes the recent uptick in Russian advances in Kharkiv.
Georgia: Huge anti-Russia, pro-EU protests
🎦 21:08-26:50⏩
- Jonathan is impressed by the footage of protests coming out of Georgia.
- The protests follow a crackdown on dissent by the Georgian government ("Georgia Dream") using violence and intimidation tactics.
- Jonathan notes that the protests appear to be very well attended with Katie Shoshishvili (source) stating that she has never seen so many people on the streets of Georgia.
- The protestors are chanting anti-Russia and pro-EU slogans.
- Jonathan questions whether Georgia Dream will respond with further crackdowns or attempt to compromise with the protestors.
- He believes that the protestors represent a significant proportion of the population and that Georgia Dream would lose if an election was held now.
- He suspects that the protests are more pronounced in Tbilisi than in more rural areas, noting the parallels with Russia where support for Putin is highest outside of the main cities.
Eurovision: Ukraine comes 3rd
🎦 26:50-31:08⏩
- Jonathan is impressed by Ukraine's performance in Eurovision who finished 3rd.
- Ukraine received a significant number of votes from the public which he believes demonstrates the level of support for Ukraine across Europe.
- He was impressed by the Ukraine's performance which made reference to incendiary munitions, calling it "powerful".
- Jonathan enjoyed Switzerland's performance, thinking they were worthy winners. Croatia also impressed him.
- He was disappointed that Georgia didn't do better, feeling they should have been much higher up the leader board.
- He noted that Israel also received a high number of votes and believes this is because you either love them or hate them. He positions himself in the middleground - against the actions of the Israeli government and the killing of civilians but also against Hamas and their charter.
Wrap up
🎦 31:08-31:21⏩
Jonathan signs off, reminding everyone to like, subscribe and share. He lets his viewers know that he will be doing a live stream with Mark and Olena in 3 hours time followed by an appearance on Tochny Live later that evening.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear on what Jonathan meant by "credits" in this context: "Three billion euros in aid is not bad, but it will not be enough if the United States stops supporting Kyiv. And of course, you know, that depends on November elections, etc, etc. So that's the right kind of rhetoric there from France, which is, yeah, we've got three billion dollars in euros and credits." Does he mean this is an agreement whereby the French government underwrites the Ukrainian government to allow them to purchase military equipment from French companies?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a very long transcript so I will need to split into multiple topic titles. I will start with TASK 1 - I can see the date and part are in the title so I can extract these easily. I will need to listen carefully for each topic/news item as Jonathan can switch between topics quickly. It's important to make sure that the summary is well written and interesting to read given Jonathan's excellent analysis and insights! I will correct any spelling mistakes or hesitations in the transcript (e.g. "ukranian" should be "Ukrainian" and "tinternet" should be "internet") and ensure that I use the Ukrainian spellings for Ukrainian place names.
