Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They seem to be able to cycle through these huge losses and still carry on. Good decisions. Strategic withdrawal plan from Avdiivka had already been on the table for 2 plus weeks."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone back, describing this update as "four days in the making" as he has been in Ukraine. He warns that it is not looking good for Ukraine and describes the situation as the worst since the start of the war.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Lack of US aid impacting Ukraine
🎦 00:39-01:18⏩
Jonathan believes that the situation in the last week is at least partially attributable to lack of Aid from US. Some ammunition and HIMARS have been delivered to the Avdiivka but it may be "too little too late".
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Kupiansk-Svatove Front: Sienkiewka remains contested
🎦 01:39-02:43⏩
Jonathan analyses the maps from different sources including "Soviet Maps". He credits JR for his mapping work. Seinkiewka has seen intense fighting with some Russian gains, although it remains a very fluid situation.
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Kupiansk-Svatove Front: Russian advance near Kupiansk
🎦 02:43-03:24⏩
ISW reports that Russian forces have made confirmed advances near Kupiansk. Clashes have been ongoing around Sinkivka with Russian troops advancing several hundred metres in recent days.
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Kreminna Front: Russian gains but Bilohorivka holds
🎦 03:24-04:10⏩
Jonathan notes some Russian gains near Novovodiane, Terny and Kramova where Russia is trying to push south to Ivanovska. However, there have been no changes in Bilohorivka for a few days which is good news.
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Bakhmut Front: Situation Update
🎦 04:10-05:47⏩
Jonathan points out Russian gains south of Bakhmut near Khrushchevka but notes that Deep State Maps are "playing catch up" with other mappers. He believes that Deepstate maps will likely confirm Russian gains in the area.
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Avdiivka: Ukraine loses ground near mines but retains some gains
🎦 05:47-06:39⏩
Jonathan highlights Ukrainian losses near the mines in Avdiivka. Russia has retaken the slag heaps there, which had been opportunistically taken by Ukraine a few days ago. Despite this setback, Ukraine still controls more territory in the area than it did along the 2014 line.
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Avdiivka: Overview and Analysis
🎦 06:39-07:12⏩
Jonathan states that Avdiivka is where all the news is currently focused, with the majority of changes favouring the Russians. He prepares to provide a more detailed analysis of the situation there.
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Avdiivka: Tatarogami Analysis
🎦 07:12-09:24⏩
Jonathan shares Tatarogami's analysis of the situation in Avdiivka. Key points include:
- Russia maintains a numerical advantage in personnel and vehicles.
- Russia has been able to replenish troops and apply pressure, despite heavy losses.
- Russian troops have taken heavy casualties, requiring equipment transfers from other armies.
- Russian forces used surprise to infiltrate residential areas via sewers and water pipes in January.
- Lack of Ukrainian counter-battery fire enabled Russia to deploy artillery, weakening Ukrainian defences.
- Many captured Russian troops were recent recruits.
- Extensive use of KAB bombs, with as many as 70 being dropped in a single day, highlights Ukraine's lack of air defences.
Avdiivka: Ukrainian forces withdrawing
🎦 09:24-11:01⏩
Jonathan cites sources, including the 3rd Assault Brigade Deputy Commander, Kudryashov, which confirm that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Avdiivka after 12 days of intense fighting. They have had to abandon certain positions and some troops were completely surrounded, although they managed to break out.
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Avdiivka: Zenit falls to Russia, Ukrainian forces suffer heavy losses
🎦 11:01-12:12⏩
Jonathan confirms that Zenit, a strategically important area with a nuclear bunker, has fallen to Russian forces. Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw to avoid being overrun. Jonathan believes that Ukrainian losses have been heavy and describes the situation in Avdiivka as "really horrendous".
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Avdiivka: Analysis of Russian tactics and impact on Ukrainian supply routes
🎦 12:12-13:47⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian tactics, noting their attempts to split Ukrainian troops by pushing through the middle, cutting off the main supply route. He shows imagery of alternative supply routes being used by Ukrainian forces, which are now under constant Russian fire.
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Avdiivka: Human Cost and Russian Losses
🎦 13:47-15:01⏩
Jonathan talks about a "harrowing account" from a Ukrainian soldier who fought at Zenit, before reflecting on the huge losses on both sides. He notes that although Ukrainian losses have been significant, Russian losses have been far higher, describing the last couple of days as "brutal". However, he notes that Russia seems to be able to withstand these losses and continue fighting, whereas Ukraine has limited resources.
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Avdiivka: Was the defence worth it?
🎦 15:01-16:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the reasons behind the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, which may have been planned for several weeks. He highlights concerns that the new commander, Sychevsky, known as "the butcher", may have been less concerned about casualties. Jonathan believes that holding Avdiivka was the right decision as it inflicted significant losses on Russian forces. He agrees with Andrew Perpetua that the lack of long-range air defence, particularly fighter jets, has been a major factor in Ukraine's inability to hold the area.
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Avdiivka: Russian Airstrikes and the need for long-range missiles
🎦 16:05-17:19⏩
Jonathan highlights the high number of Russian airstrikes in the Avdiivka area (40 in a single day), many involving 1,500kg bombs. He reiterates the need for long-range air defence systems, specifically mentioning Gripen fighter jets armed with Meteor missiles. He points out that even President Zelensky is now at risk, as a location where he filmed a video just weeks ago is now under Russian control.
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Avdiivka: Suret Maps confirms Russian Control of key infrastructure
🎦 17:19-18:13⏩
Jonathan quotes Suret Maps, which confirms the Russians have taken control over parts of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, the train station, and other key infrastructure. He highlights the Russians are "combing" the area, pushing Ukrainian troops towards the settlement of Keramik, which is now under Russian fire control.
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Donetsk Front: Fighting in Mariinka, Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar
🎦 18:13-20:35⏩
Jonathan provides an update on fighting in the Donetsk region, noting Russian gains in Mariinka, Novomykhailivka, and Vuhledar. He expresses concerns about the situation in Novomykhailivka, which he believes is now in "a lot of trouble." He also mentions that Andrew Perpetua will provide more detailed analysis on these areas in his upcoming live stream.
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Kherson Front: Ukrainian Success near Krinki despite redeployment of troops
🎦 20:35-23:21⏩
Jonathan shares some good news from the Kherson front, where Ukrainian forces have had some success near Krinki, despite the redeployment of three out of four brigades to Avdiivka. He describes this as "odd" because he had expected a Russian offensive in the area. Key points:
- Ukrainian forces have raised their flag over a water tower south of Krinki, marking a significant advance.
- The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, an elite Russian marine unit, has returned to Krinki, indicating the importance of the area.
- Russia is also preparing to resume offensive operations in the Dnipro River islands.
- Ukraine has deployed military boats with electronic warfare capabilities near Krinki, which may disrupt Russian drone operations.
- Jonathan recounts seeing flashes in the distance while he was in Kherson, highlighting the ongoing fighting in the area.
Avdiivka: A chronological perspective
🎦 23:21-24:38⏩
Jonathan wraps up the Avdiivka analysis with a chronological look at the situation there, using DeepState maps. He highlights the consistent pressure applied by Russian forces since January 28 and the significant loss of territory, including Zenit. He speculates whether Ukraine will be able to hold on to any part of Avdiivka past March 17, which is election day in Russia. This raises the question of whether Ukraine might try to deny Putin a symbolic victory ahead of the elections.
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Wrap up
🎦 24:38-25:00⏩
Jonathan thanks JR for his mapping efforts and signs off to have a well-deserved Chinese takeaway with his partner after his return from Ukraine.
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