Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News - Kinzhal Analysis
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"Theoretically, this should create a small additional radio interference, but also has a negative effect on the body of the device. In flight, the rocket should look as if it were in a fiery cocoon."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war, focusing on the recent Russian missile attacks and other news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Missile Attacks
- Russia launched 81 missiles, including 8 drones, at targets across Ukraine
- The attack included 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which Ukraine struggles to shoot down
- The lower number of missiles compared to previous attacks suggests Russia's stockpiles are dwindling
- The attacks hit critical energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other regions, causing power outages and civilian casualties
Kinzhal Hypersonic Missiles
- Kinzhal missiles have a range of over 2,000 km, Mach 12 speed, and can carry conventional or nuclear warheads
- They are launched from MiG-31K interceptors and use "plasma stealth" to absorb radio waves, making them difficult to detect
- Patriot missile systems may be able to intercept Kinzhals, but it remains uncertain
Russian Losses and Other News
- Russian personnel losses have decreased, possibly due to a culmination around Bakhmut or Ukraine focusing on preserving troops for counter-offensives
- A Russian A-50 radar plane was confirmed damaged by a Belarusian partisan drone attack
- US intelligence suggests Russia is unlikely to make major territorial gains in Ukraine this year
Geopolitics and Military Aid
- Protests in Georgia have led to the withdrawal of a controversial "foreign agent" bill, seen as a win for pro-Western sentiment
- US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy declined an invitation to visit Ukraine, maintaining his stance on limiting aid
- Various countries continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, air defence systems, and demining support
- Switzerland once again hampered allies' efforts to supply ammunition to Ukraine
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers for their support and mentioning he is not feeling well but will try to provide another update later.
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