Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"They can't even get past Tonenko without losing an absolute bucketload of vehicles"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:25⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, reminding them about the map key.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northern Frontline: Pro-Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod

🎦 00:25-02:25⏩

Jonathan highlights a blue pin on the map (unusual for this phase of the war) - thanks to JR for the mapping update. Pro-Ukrainian forces are shelling Belgorod with explosions being heard in the city, although Jonathan notes that the objectives/tactics are unclear. He speculates that the Ukrainians are using relatively cheap Vampire MLRS to draw out and deplete Russia's higher value air defence systems, taking advantage of the asymmetrical situation this presents.

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Kupyansk-Kreminna Frontline: Ukrainian advances near Terny

🎦 02:25-05:18⏩

Jonathan points out that Russia has made no advances along the Kupyansk-Kreminna frontline - good news for Ukraine. In fact, Andrew Perpetua's mapping shows Ukrainian gains, pushing the Russians back east of Terny. Jonathan speculates about the nature of these gains. A Ukrainian tank is filmed engaging Russian targets near Terny, with three destroyed/abandoned Russian BMPs also being noted. Jonathan highlights the importance of access to high-resolution satellite imagery.

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Bakhmut Frontline: Russian gains north of Ivaniske

🎦 05:18-09:45⏩

Jonathan observes that Deepstatemap and Surat Maps indicate Russian gains north of Ivaniske. He notes that he was expecting this, as the high ground there is strategically important, calling it the "most troubling area of Russian advance". Jonathan questions whether it's strategically worthwhile for the Ukrainians to try and hold Ivaniske itself, as it sits below the high ground and could become a kill box. Pro-Russian sources on Telegram claim that Russian forces have taken control of the first trench line southeast of the "Canal" micro district and new positions at "Mount Baba" as well as entering the forest adjacent to the micro district. Jonathan notes that whilst Ukrainian drones destroyed several Russian mechanized vehicles near Ivaniske, the Russians continue to make marginal gains at the cost of huge equipment losses. He expresses concern over the volume of Russian equipment losses (4 armoured vehicles in one short video clip).

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Avdiivka Frontline: Stalemate, but major Russian losses at Tonenko

🎦 09:45-25:11⏩

Jonathan notes that the Avdiivka front appears to have stabilised, although there were changes to the maps yesterday. ISW reports that Ukrainian forces recently repelled a major Russian battalion-sized mechanised assault near Avdiivka - the largest such attack since Russia's campaign to seize Avdiivka began in late October 2023. Anton Gerashchenko's footage shows the extent of Russian losses in the attack. Footage published by Ukraine's 25th Separate Airborne Brigade shows the attack unfolding and Jonathan highlights that this was a well-coordinated assault with ATGMs being used in conjunction with drones. Deepstatemap and Forbes call it the largest such attack of the entire war, with Russia committing 36 tanks and 12 BMPs. The Ukrainians destroyed or seriously damaged 20 Russian vehicles, forcing the rest to retreat. Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotenok confirms Russian manpower and equipment losses. Jonathan reads from and analyses the ISW's daily report, which questions whether Russia's operational reserve is too degraded to lead further advances. This was a significant event: Russia committed a large amount of military equipment (including reserves) to the assault, only for it to be repelled by Ukrainian forces, calling into question Russia's ability to launch a significant offensive. However, Jonathan acknowledges that this will likely have an impact on the morale of the Russian troops operating in the area. Despite the success, Jonathan expresses his frustration that Ukrainian successes could be even greater if they had all the equipment they needed. He is also concerned by the potential impact on Ukrainian reserves as they are forced to expend munitions to defend against these attacks. Jonathan questions what impact this will have on Russia's ability to launch further large-scale offensives, given that ISW assesses that Russia can only launch one large scale offensive operation at a time. He theorises that Russia may be prioritising attacks in the Avdiivka area in the hope of making steady (if marginal) gains. He concludes the segment by stating that whilst Ukraine needs as much help as possible (equipment, manpower and ammunition), the fact that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled such a large-scale attack bodes well for their ability to defend against future offensives.

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Pervomaiske: Russian gains, Vojvodina captured

🎦 25:11-26:18⏩

Jonathan reports on Russian gains around Pervomaiske, with Surat Maps suggesting that Russia now controls 85% of the town. He notes that Syriac Maps claims that Russian forces have taken control of Vojvodina.

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Krasnohorivka and Marinka: No changes

🎦 26:18-26:45⏩

Jonathan notes that there have been no changes to the map around Krasnohorivka and Marinka recently, which he views as good news for Ukraine.

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Novomykhailivka: Russian advances West

🎦 26:45-28:40⏩

Jonathan states that Novomykhailivka is the area where Russia is having the most success at the moment. Andrew Perpetua's mapping shows that the Russians are pushing West and have taken control of a large tree line, which concerns Jonathan, as it might enable the Russians to surround Novomykhailivka from the South. Although there is some disagreement between Andrew Perpetua and Surat Maps about exactly how much control Russia has in the area, geolocation by EJ Shahid confirms that the Ukrainians are engaging Russian forces. Jonathan describes the area as the "most worrying area of the front line".

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Southern Frontline: Russian gains West of the Dnipro River

🎦 28:40-30:17⏩

Jonathan notes that Surat Maps show Russian gains to the west of the Dnipro River, although he hasn't seen any supporting tweets. There is a significant difference between maps in this area - Andrew Perpetua and Deepstatemap show the area as grey zone and not under Russian control. Jonathan speculates that there may be some Russian activity in the area, but it’s unclear if they have definitive control.

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Robotyne and Verbove: No changes, increase in Russian drone activity

🎦 29:49-30:35⏩

Jonathan confirms that ISW reports no changes to the frontline near Robotyne and Verbove, although positional engagements are ongoing. However, Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reports that Russia is making use of favourable weather conditions to increase the number of reconnaissance drones in operation to more than 200 per day. Interestingly, the Southern Operational Command also reports that Russia appears to be limiting its use of armoured vehicles when conducting assaults around Robotyne, a marked contrast to tactics being employed elsewhere. Jonathan speculates about the reasons for this.

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Kherson: Ukrainian EW superiority, crowdfunding the war effort

🎦 30:35-36:25⏩

Jonathan notes that whilst there are no changes to the maps around Kherson, there is a lot of information from ISW, who report that Ukrainian forces are repelling between 1 and 3 lightly armed infantry assaults (with no armoured support) near Kherson daily. Despite transferring forces and equipment from occupied Crimea, Russian forces have been unable to achieve meaningful success. Russian sources confirm a lull in activity, noting that Ukrainian forces have superior electronic warfare systems, drones and artillery. Jonathan explains that this has been known for some time, observing that units elsewhere along the frontline are keen to get hold of the same equipment. Jonathan goes on to discuss how Ukrainian units are having to rely on crowdfunding to procure vital equipment, highlighting the relative success of Robert Magyar’s drone unit who are able to source effective jamming and protective equipment, in part due to the profile they have cultivated online. He draws a comparison between the vicious and virtuous cycles at play, with less successful units finding it harder to acquire funding and better equipment. Jonathan concludes by stating that Ukraine desperately needs funding in order to resource the war effort and that they shouldn’t have to rely so heavily on crowdfunding.

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Wrap up

🎦 36:25-36:32⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers and asks them to like, subscribe and share his content.

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