Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The silver lining to the cloud here is that in order to prevail in this war the ukrainians need to attrit the russians at something like you know three to one five to one or more you know ideally uh personnel and equipment losses to ukrainian losses and in this area they've done that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:47⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a long-awaited frontline update, acknowledging the delay due to a busy weekend. He expresses gratitude to JR for his work on the map and warns of tough times ahead for Ukrainians on certain fronts.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Sumy Oblast: Russian SDRG incursion repelled by Ukrainian forces.
🎦 00:47-03:44⏩
Jonathan analyses a recent Russian incursion in the Sumy Oblast region, where a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (SDRG) attempted to cross the border. He highlights the effectiveness of such tactics in forcing Ukraine to divert resources. Sources: ISW, Lieutenant General Naev (Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander), Tim White.
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Kupyansk-Lyman: Increase in Russian Artillery Fire and Potential Motives.
🎦 03:44-06:23⏩
Jonathan examines the situation along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, noting conflicting reports about Russian artillery fire. He speculates that Russia might be exploiting potential delays in US military aid to Ukraine. Sources: Ivan Shevtsov (spokesperson for the Ukrainian Steel Border Detachment).
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Kreminna-Svatove: Russian Advance Towards Yampolivka.
🎦 06:23-07:21⏩
Jonathan reports on the Russian advance near Kreminna, specifically their push west towards Yampolivka. He references various map sources and their interpretations of Russian progress in the area. Sources: Deep State Map, Andrew Perpetua.
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Bakhmut: Ukrainian Counterattacks and Russian Gains near Klishchivka.
🎦 07:21-10:58⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Bakhmut front, highlighting Ukrainian counterattacks and territorial gains near Borynivka. He also acknowledges Russian advances north of Klishchivka, noting the strategic importance of trench lines in the area. Sources: Deep State Map, ISW.
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Bakhmut: Analysis of Fighting for Trenches Northwest of Klishchivka.
🎦 10:58-11:19⏩
Jonathan focuses on the heavily contested trench area northwest of Klishchivka, crucial high ground overlooking the town. He questions the accuracy of earlier reports suggesting complete Russian control. Sources: Deep State Map, Syriac Maps, Andrew Perpetua.
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Kurdyumivka: Ukrainian Gains and Favourable Position Northeast of the Settlement.
🎦 11:19-11:45⏩
Jonathan highlights a significant Ukrainian gain northeast of Kurdyumivka, pushing back Russian forces. Sources: Syriac Maps.
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Andriivka: Ukrainian Territorial Gains and Improved Situation South of Bakhmut.
🎦 11:45-12:43⏩
Jonathan points out Ukrainian territorial gains near Andriivka, east of Klishchivka, and south of Bakhmut, marking a potential shift in momentum in the area. He notes the Ukrainians are having more success here than in previous weeks. Sources: Syriac Maps.
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Holvika: Russian Recapture of Trenches.
🎦 12:43-13:45⏩
Jonathan reports on Russian recapture of trenches near Holvika, south of Bakhmut, highlighting the fluid situation and the significance of even small territorial changes. Sources: Syriac Maps, Andrew Perpetua.
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Avdiivka: Ukrainian Gains and Russian Pressure North West of Krasnohorivka
🎦 13:45-14:58⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation around Avdiivka, noting Ukrainian gains along the railway line northwest of Krasnohorivka. Sources: Deep State Map.
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Avdiivka: Russian Advances and Street Fighting.
🎦 14:58-19:25⏩
Jonathan delivers a concerning update on Avdiivka, detailing heavy Russian pressure and street fighting within the city. He cites reports from journalists and military sources indicating a critical situation for Ukrainian defenders, who are facing overwhelming artillery fire. Jonathan recounts a conversation with Greg Terry who paints a bleak picture of the situation in Avdiivka. Sources: Butazov, Yuri Butusov (journalist), Konstantin Mashovets, Yevhen Sapelienko (journalist), Greg Terry.
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Avdiivka: Debate on Ukrainian Strategy and the Potential for Withdrawal.
🎦 19:25-20:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, acknowledging the city's role in tying down Russian forces but questioning the long-term viability of holding it. Sources: Syriac Maps.
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Avdiivka: Unconfirmed Reports of M1 Abrams Tanks and Russian Losses.
🎦 20:56-21:59⏩
Jonathan addresses unconfirmed reports of M1 Abrams tanks deployed near Avdiivka, piquing viewers' curiosity about their potential impact. He highlights the destructive power of Russian weaponry and the significant losses they have incurred.
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Avdiivka: Analysis of Russian Tactics and Attrition Warfare.
🎦 21:59-24:51⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian tactics in and around Avdiivka, noting their shift towards direct assaults after failing to encircle the city. He highlights the high cost of these advances for the Russians, suggesting that Ukrainian attrition warfare may be proving effective. Sources: Syriac Maps.
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Avdiivka: Analysis of the Importance of Holding Territory.
🎦 24:51-33:28⏩
Jonathan launches into a wider discussion about the strategic significance of holding specific territories versus the importance of inflicting losses on the enemy (attrition warfare). He argues that ceding some ground may be acceptable if it comes at a heavy cost to the Russians. He stresses the importance of holding key locations like Kostiantynivka whilst acknowledging the heavy price being paid by both sides in the fighting.
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Mariinka: Minor Russian Advances and Ongoing Clashes.
🎦 33:28-36:53⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Mariinka, reporting minor Russian advances in the area, but emphasising the continued challenges they face. Sources: Global War Monitor, Syriac Maps, Deep State Map, Andrew Perpetua.
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Vuhledar: No Significant Changes but Heavy Fighting Reported
🎦 36:53-37:26⏩
Jonathan reports no significant changes in the Vuhledar sector but notes reports of heavy fighting and aviation use by both sides.
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Krynky: Unconfirmed Ukrainian Advances and Control of Supply Lines
🎦 37:26-37:51⏩
Jonathan concludes with a brief update on Krynky, mentioning unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian advances. Sources: No Report.
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Wrap up
🎦 37:51-37:58⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers for their patience and support.
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