Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is easily the most effective Ukrainian attack on Russian oil industry ever in this war and possibly why you've now seen Ternopil struck as a kind of retaliation."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:50⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back after returning to a grey UK from sunnier climes. He notes his lack of sleep before diving into the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses for the previous day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses
🎦 00:50-02:52⏩
Jonathan details the losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that the figures come with the usual caveats and can be found in the video description. The losses are:
- 1,330 personnel. Jonathan considers this an incredibly high number, at the upper end of the usual range.
- 5 tanks. This figure is consistent with recent days.
- 26 armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) of various types. This number is above average.
- 52 artillery systems. Roughly three times the daily average.
- 1 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS).
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system.
- 95 vehicles and fuel tanks. An unprecedented number.
- 22 pieces of special equipment. Another record high.
Jonathan points out the exceptionally high losses in vehicles, fuel tanks, and special equipment, suggesting successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics, potentially behind the Kursk lines. He mentions the Oryx loss documentation project, curated by Stijn Mitzer and contributors, as a resource for visually confirmed losses, acknowledging the lag between reported losses and visual confirmation.
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Oryx Loss List Review
🎦 02:52-06:20⏩
Jonathan reviews the Oryx loss list, highlighting:
- Near Parity in Surveillance and Communications Equipment: Both sides have experienced significant losses.
- Comparable Combat Asset Losses: The ratio is roughly one-to-one.
- Ukrainian Losses: Include Starlink systems, a Placton-3000, and other surveillance/communications equipment, an engineering vehicle, four tanks (three-quarters damaged), eight infantry fighting vehicles (two damaged). Notably, most lost IFVs are BMP-1s and 2s, with only one Bradley. Two out of three APCs lost were destroyed or captured, along with one Humvee of each category. All MRAPs were destroyed or abandoned. The remaining losses comprised civilian vehicles, decoys, and unknown items.
- Russian Losses: Include electronic warfare systems, surveillance/communications equipment, a 240mm self-propelled mortar, two BM-21 Grads, other artillery pieces, a captured T-90M tank (video evidence exists), three other destroyed tanks (50% destroyed or captured versus damaged), three out of five destroyed infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-2s and 3s, BTRs), and various APCs and MRAPs destroyed, abandoned, or damaged. There were also significant truck and civilian vehicle losses, with most civilian vehicles destroyed.
Jonathan concludes that Ukrainians are effectively targeting Russian logistics, while experiencing slightly higher combat asset losses, although many Ukrainian losses are older equipment like BMP-1s.
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Captured T-90M Tank
🎦 06:20-06:49⏩
Jonathan showcases footage of a captured T-90M tank in relatively good condition being towed away. He speculates that it will likely be utilized by Ukrainian forces, as previously seen with another captured T-90M in Kursk.
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Ukrainian Air Force Strike on Russian Underground Control Point
🎦 06:49-07:46⏩
Jonathan highlights a video released by the Ukrainian Air Force, showing a fighter jet striking what is claimed to be an underground Russian control point. The footage, unusual for its release by Ukraine, depicts burning areas on the ground, suggesting the target was indeed subterranean. The strike was carried out using a French-supplied AASM Hammer guided glide bomb, currently heavily used by Ukrainian forces.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 07:46-08:42⏩
Jonathan describes the previous night's attacks, noting:
- Successful Interceptions: 25 out of 26 Shahed attack drones were shot down.
- Cruise Missile Interceptions: Two out of two Kh-59 cruise missiles were intercepted.
- Ballistic Missile Interceptions: One out of one or possibly one out of two Iskander-M or KN-23 ballistic missiles (North Korean supplied) were intercepted.
Russian Missile Strike on Ternopil
🎦 08:42-10:21⏩
Jonathan reports a significant explosion and fire in Ternopil, western Ukraine, caused by one or two of the missiles that evaded Ukrainian air defenses. The strike hit an industrial facility, causing a large fire, with residents advised to stay indoors due to thick smoke. Although tragic, Jonathan points out that this kind of strike on industrial and fuel infrastructure, frequently targeted by Ukraine in Russian territory, is arguably a more sensible tactic for the Russians. He expresses surprise that they haven't employed it more often, viewing it as a potential response to recent Ukrainian successes, such as the ongoing oil depot fire in Rostov.
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Russian Shelling of Sumy Oblast
🎦 10:21-11:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the heavy shelling of Sumy Oblast, the Ukrainian Oblast located south of Kursk Oblast in Russia. He sees this as likely retaliation for Ukrainian strikes within Kursk Oblast. The shelling has caused widespread damage, including damage to energy facilities in the city of Hlukhiv, leaving nearly 20,000 residents without power. Jonathan highlights the daily bombardment and wanton destruction inflicted upon Sumy Oblast.
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Rostov Oil Depot Fire Update
🎦 11:13-13:52⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the burning oil depot in Rostov, Russia, which has been ablaze for three nights following a Ukrainian drone strike. He notes:
- Fire Still Raging: The fire is ongoing, with over 500 firefighters on the scene.
- Scale of Destruction: Initial reports indicated 22 out of 70 fuel tanks affected, with the fire covering 1,500 square meters. However, more recent estimates suggest the fire has spread to 10,000 square meters.
- Significant Impact: Jonathan emphasizes the effectiveness of this attack compared to previous strikes on Russian oil depots, which typically resulted in far fewer tanks being destroyed.
- Firefighting Challenges: Firefighters face an uphill battle due to the intensity of the blaze and continuous explosions of kerosene tanks. There are reports of 41 injured firefighters, with 18 hospitalized and five in intensive care.
Jonathan believes the Russians won't be able to extinguish the fire until the entire facility is destroyed. He considers this the most successful Ukrainian attack on the Russian oil industry thus far, potentially prompting the retaliatory strike on Ternopil.
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First Pontoon Bridge Destroyed in Kursk
🎦 13:52-15:36⏩
Jonathan reports the destruction of the first pontoon bridge constructed by the Russians over a river in Kursk Oblast. This river forms the northern border of a rectangular area where Ukrainian forces are reportedly operating, with the other three sides also bordered by the international border and the Seversky Donets River. Three permanent bridges along this river have already been destroyed. There is uncertainty surrounding the destruction of the pontoon bridge, with some suggesting it was blown up by Ukrainian forces, while others believe it was dismantled and moved or potentially both. Regardless, the loss of the pontoon bridge further isolates Russian forces south of the river.
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German IRIS-T SLM Air Defense System Success
🎦 15:36-16:40⏩
Jonathan highlights the success of a German-provided IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense system operated by Ukraine. In six months, the system shot down 45 targets, all confirmed as missiles, demonstrating its effectiveness in countering higher-value threats. Remarkably, the unit achieved this using only 44 air defense missiles, with one instance involving a double hit on two incoming missiles with a single interceptor, attributed more to luck than judgment.
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Poverty in Kursk Oblast
🎦 16:40-17:22⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of extreme poverty in Kursk Oblast, a stark contrast to the image Russia attempts to portray. Ukrainian soldiers operating in the region have been shocked by the lack of basic amenities, with many homes lacking running water and government buildings in a state of disrepair. This poverty highlights the disparity between the two nations.
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Ukraine to Counter Russian Disinformation
🎦 17:22-17:52⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukraine's plan to establish a new body dedicated to countering Russian influence and disinformation within the Ukrainian diaspora. President Zelensky has named this initiative the "Ministry of Ukrainian Unity and Countering Russian Influence on Ukrainians." Jonathan acknowledges the pervasive threat of disinformation in the modern world and wishes the new body well in its efforts.
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Russian Soldier Defects and Provides Intel
🎦 17:52-18:27⏩
Jonathan reveals that a Russian soldier who defected to Ukraine provided valuable intelligence and carried out espionage activities against Russian forces. This information was disclosed by Ukraine's military intelligence agency, HUR, during a press conference on August 20th.
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Fighting in Donetsk's New York Settlement
🎦 18:27-19:13⏩
Jonathan addresses the contested settlement of Donetsk's New York in the Donetsk Oblast. While Russia claimed complete control, Ukrainian military sources refute these assertions. Ukrainian forces maintain control over parts of the north, engaging in fierce fighting with Russian troops who are deploying significant reserves. Jonathan frames this as a high-stakes game of "military chicken," where both sides are heavily invested in their respective offensives, leaving them vulnerable elsewhere. He questions which side will yield first and redeploy troops to bolster their defenses.
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Wrap up
🎦 19:13-19:32⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their patience during his time away and for their continued support of his channel. He acknowledges the inconsistency in his content production, hoping it remains informative and useful. He signs off, promising to speak to his viewers again soon.
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