Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Putin is a terrible human being."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update on ATP Geopolitics. He kicks off the video by delving straight into military aid and equipment updates for Ukraine.
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EU Threatens Hungary Over Ukraine Aid Blockade
🎦 00:16-05:24⏩
The EU is set to provide a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine but faces potential veto by Hungary.
- Jonathan explains that the EU, in response to Hungary’s stance, has developed countermeasures, including potential economic sanctions. Jonathan expresses satisfaction at the EU taking a stronger stance against recalcitrant members. He likens the situation with Hungary to Turkey's role in NATO, arguing it's better to have them within the fold than aligned with Russia. He believes forcing Hungary out of the EU could lead to a dictatorship under Kremlin influence.
- Brussels is considering tactics to pressure Hungary, such as impacting its currency and investor confidence or threatening to cut off all funding to trigger negative market reactions. Jonathan highlights how financial pressure often yields desired results and cites Hungary and Slovakia's willingness to sell arms to Ukraine despite their pro-Kremlin stance as evidence that “money talks”.
- The Financial Times has reported on the EU’s plan to "sabotage" Hungary's economy if Orban blocks the aid package. The plan outlines Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities and strategies to exploit them. Jonathan believes such strong-arm tactics are justified given the extraordinary circumstances and the threat posed by Russia. He believes such actions are necessary to safeguard global security.
- In a positive turn of events, Reuters has reported Hungary is signalling a willingness to compromise on the EU aid package for Ukraine. Prime Minister Orban, despite his previous criticism, now appears open to using the EU budget for the €50 billion aid package.
- Jonathan ponders the potential use of the €50 billion EU aid package for purchasing US ammunition currently stalled in the US due to a Congressional budget impasse. He speculates whether this situation could benefit the US by allowing them to sell existing stockpiles while simultaneously ramping up new production.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Visits Ukraine
🎦 06:19-06:55⏩
Andriy Yermak, Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba have met with Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and his team in Uzhhorod, Ukraine. Jonathan sees the timing of this meeting, right before the EU vote on the €50 billion aid package, as significant, suggesting a link between the two.
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France to Supply Ukraine with 155mm Shells
🎦 06:55-08:44⏩
France will supply the Ukrainian army with 3,000 155mm shells per month. France also plans to deliver six CAESAR howitzers to Ukraine soon, with a total order of 78. Jonathan acknowledges concerns about the seemingly low number of shells, but urges viewers to consider the contributions of other countries. He emphasizes the importance of collective effort, highlighting that Germany aims to produce 700,000 shells annually, significantly bolstering Ukraine's supplies.
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Ukrainian Naval Commander on Western Weapons Restrictions
🎦 08:44-09:32⏩
A Ukrainian Navy commander has stated that Ukraine could have achieved a swifter victory if granted permission to deploy Western weapons against targets within Russia. Jonathan highlights the significance of Ukrainian Naval Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa explicitly stating this to Sky News, even though this is a sentiment many have expressed. Vice Admiral Neizhpapa believes Ukraine needs the capability to deter Russia from even considering aggression against Ukraine in the future, including at sea.
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Drone Warfare: Ukraine and Russia
🎦 09:32-15:15⏩
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov acknowledges that Russia's FPV drone capabilities have "somewhat exceeded" Ukraine's. Jonathan delves into the complexities of drone warfare, addressing Reznikov’s statement and suggesting that while Russia may have a production advantage, it might not necessarily translate to battlefield superiority. He highlights the distinction between 'capability' and 'capacity', suggesting Russia may struggle to effectively deploy its larger drone force. He notes that claims of Russia producing six times as many drones as Ukraine are not reflected in observable battlefield impact and attributes this discrepancy to a potential lack of Russian operational capacity.
- Jonathan emphasises the significant role of international support and domestic production in bolstering Ukraine's drone capabilities, citing examples like the fundraising efforts by himself, Greg Terry, and others, which provide Ukraine with an unreported advantage. He underscores the importance of considering aid from multiple sources, including drones supplied by individual countries and those purchased through independent fundraising, which are absent on the Russian side.
- While acknowledging Russia's technological prowess and potential advantage in certain drone types, Jonathan remains optimistic about Ukraine's long-term prospects. He believes the collective efforts of multiple nations supporting Ukraine with drone technology will ultimately outweigh any initial Russian advantage.
Finland Ramps Up Ammunition Production and Wartime Preparations
🎦 15:15-17:05⏩
Finland has been actively replenishing its wartime stockpiles and activating production reservation agreements with domestic companies, effectively gearing up for a potential conflict. Jonathan praises Finland for its foresight and proactive approach to wartime preparedness, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF), having received additional funding, began stockpiling essential supplies in early 2022, demonstrating their preparedness.
- Finland's domestic arms industry, led by Patria, is experiencing a significant increase in production. They are now producing five times more heavy artillery ammunition than before 2022, with plans to further double capacity. This move positions Finland to become one of Europe's leading ammunition producers.
- Jonathan points out that Finland's efforts are not solely focused on ammunition but extend to all aspects of sustained war fighting, including securing raw materials and readying production lines. He sees Finland's approach as a model for other European nations to follow. He emphasizes that Finland aims to secure its own supplies while simultaneously bolstering Ukraine's defence capabilities, underscoring Finland's long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine.
US Oversight of Aid to Ukraine
🎦 17:05-18:35⏩
Three US inspectors general – from the Department of Defense, State Department, and USAID – have arrived in Kyiv to review the oversight and accountability of US assistance to Ukraine. Ambassador Bridget Brink emphasizes the inspectors' role in ensuring transparency and accountability for the aid provided to Ukraine.
- Jonathan expresses his frustration with allegations made by certain US politicians regarding a lack of accountability for weapons and aid sent to Ukraine. He argues that the level of scrutiny and oversight applied to US aid in Ukraine is unparalleled in recent history, refuting claims of mismanaged funds or unaccounted-for weaponry. Jonathan urges viewers to challenge such baseless statements and demand evidence from those making them.
India Shifts Away from Russian Arms; Russia's Dependence on China & India
🎦 18:35-22:08⏩
While India continues to import Russian oil, it's shifting away from Russian arms, opting instead for Western technology and domestically manufactured weapons. Jonathan explains that India, previously a major importer of Russian military equipment, is now producing its own, reducing its reliance on Russia. This shift is particularly noticeable in less sophisticated equipment where India can now compete with Russia.
- India's reduced reliance on Russian arms, coupled with payment for Russian oil in rupees held in Indian banks, gives India considerable leverage over Russia. The inability to repatriate these rupees creates a situation where Russia is effectively accumulating unusable currency while India profits from discounted oil prices.
- Jonathan highlights the analysis from The Ukrainian Review, which describes how India's restrictions on capital flows prevent Russia from accessing the rupees accumulated from oil and gas sales, further weakening Russia's economic position. This strategy allows India to maintain a facade of positive relations with Russia while strategically distancing itself from a declining power and securing a favourable economic position.
- Jonathan draws a parallel between India and China's relationships with Russia, suggesting both are exploiting Russia's desperation. Russia's need for hard currency, coupled with its reliance on India and China as economic partners, places it in a vulnerable position, effectively making it a vassal state to its supposed allies.
US Border Deal, Fentanyl Smuggling & Ukraine Aid
🎦 22:08-28:17⏩
Jonathan critiques a Fox News host for questioning Republican Senator James Lankford's bipartisan efforts to secure a border deal. The Fox News host suggests the deal would give President Biden a political win in an election year, implying it's not in the Republican Party's interest. Jonathan expresses his disapproval of such partisan tactics, particularly when it comes to critical issues like national security and the ongoing war in Ukraine. He voices his support for Senator Lankford, who he believes is genuinely committed to finding solutions for the border crisis.
- He highlights the senator's efforts in securing a border deal that goes beyond what even some Democrats might have considered, illustrating the complex political landscape in the US. Jonathan emphasizes that the border deal, far from being lenient, introduces stricter measures to control illegal immigration and enhance border security.
- Jonathan challenges the narrative, often perpetuated by certain groups, that links the US fentanyl crisis to illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border. He references a study by the Cato Institute – a right-leaning libertarian think tank critical of the Biden administration – that debunks this misconception.
- Jonathan cites key findings from the Cato Institute report, which concluded that the majority of fentanyl is smuggled by US citizens for US citizens. It is smuggled through legal crossing points, not by asylum seekers or through illegal migration routes. Jonathan emphasizes that conflating the fentanyl crisis with illegal immigration is inaccurate and unhelpful, urging viewers to critically assess such claims. He underscores the study's findings by pointing out that only a tiny fraction of individuals apprehended for illegal border crossings were found in possession of fentanyl.
- Jonathan advocates for more nuanced discussions on border security and the fentanyl epidemic, encouraging viewers to move beyond simplistic talking points and engage with facts.
Russia Discusses Formalising Alliance with China, Iran and North Korea
🎦 28:17-29:51⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russia, reporting that Russian propagandists are openly discussing the possibility of a formal military alliance with China, Iran, and North Korea. He contrasts this with the sentiment amongst some in the West who believe that supporting Ukraine should primarily be Europe's responsibility, not America's. Jonathan finds irony in the fact that Russia, once a global power, is now seeking alliances with isolated nations like North Korea and Iran, highlighting the country's fall from grace due to its actions in Ukraine.
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Russia Accused of Seeking to Destabilise Moldova
🎦 29:51-31:10⏩
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russia is preparing to destabilise Moldova, likely aiming to hinder its EU integration. Jonathan expresses concern over this development and highlights other worrying trends, citing the rise of pro-Russian sentiment among some right-wing politicians in countries like Hungary and Romania.
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NATO Prepares for Potential Russian Missile Strikes
🎦 31:10-31:45⏩
NATO is preparing for potential Russian missile strikes in Europe should a full-scale war with Russia erupt. Jonathan cites a statement from Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, commander of NATO’s military logistics center in Germany, who underscores the alliance's need to be prepared for such a scenario.
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Finnish Presidential Election Shows Strong Support for Ukraine
🎦 31:45-33:24⏩
The first round of the Finnish presidential election has concluded. No candidate secured over 50% of the vote, so a second round will determine the winner.
- Jonathan provides an overview of the leading candidates. He highlights that both frontrunners, Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, are staunch supporters of Ukraine and advocates for continued aid.
- Jonathan emphasises the significance of the Finnish election, noting the absence of any pro-Russian candidates, regardless of their political leanings. This unified stance, he argues, sends a strong message of solidarity with Ukraine and demonstrates Finland's commitment to opposing Russian aggression.
Latvian MEP Investigated for Alleged Ties to Russian Intelligence
🎦 33:24-34:56⏩
A Latvian Member of the European Parliament (MEP), Tatjana Ždanoka, is under investigation for alleged ties to Russian intelligence services. Jonathan reports that an investigation by The Insider, an independent Russian media outlet, has uncovered allegations linking Ždanoka to Russian intelligence.
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Putin's Expanding Villa Larger Than Monaco
🎦 34:56-37:53⏩
An investigation has revealed that one of Vladimir Putin's numerous villas, located in Karelia, Russia, has expanded to become larger than Monaco. Construction began a decade ago and has continued to grow in scale. Jonathan expresses his disdain for Putin's lavish lifestyle, particularly the acquisition of extravagant assets like multiple super yachts and sprawling estates, while ordinary Russian citizens struggle. He criticizes Putin for amassing such wealth while holding public office, suggesting it was acquired through the embezzlement of state funds.
- Jonathan highlights the injustice of Putin's actions, arguing that these resources should be used for the betterment of the Russian people. He concludes by condemning Putin as a "terrible human being," citing this latest revelation as further evidence of his corrupt practices.
Wrap Up
🎦 37:53-37:58⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off, promising to return soon with more updates.
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