Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Fracas about US Weapons Use inside Russia & Weapons Delay

"They're not going to go nuclear if they start using storm shadows at particular bases across the border into Russia. I'm absolutely positive. But now they made such a song and dance about this decision that I think the US are more likely to be like recalcitrant, intransigent. They're not wanting to budge and then not wanting to shift because then it looks like they're going back on their word and then it gives ammunition to the Russians to make an even bigger escalatory deal out of it...it's just really damned frustrating"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:13⏩

Jonathan introduces the video as a "fairly substantial" Ukraine War Update Extra video covering military aid announcements and expectations, focusing on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine and the expectations being thrust upon Ukraine. He notes that the previous day (20/05/2024) was Ramstein.

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Lloyd Austin on Restrictions of US Weapons Use

🎦 00:13-03:35⏩

Jonathan discusses comments made by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin regarding restrictions on the use of US weapons by Ukraine.

• Austin was asked whether Ukraine can use US missiles to strike targets within Russia, specifically whether they can use US air defences to engage Russian bombers in Russian territory
• Austin avoids directly answering the question, stating that the US has been clear about providing Ukraine with the ability to defend its sovereign territory.
• Jonathan analyses Austin's response, pointing out the vagueness in Austin's language, particularly the phrase "aerial dynamics" which Jonathan says "sows more confusion or vagueness"
• Jonathan highlights Austin's statement "Our expectation is that they continue to use the weapons that we provided on targets inside of Ukraine". Jonathan interprets this as confirmation that Ukraine is being pressured not to strike targets inside Russia.

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Commentary on US Policy, Zelensky's Plea and Concerns Over Targeting Restrictions

🎦 03:35-07:53⏩

- Jonathan shares the views of retired US General, Ben Hodges, who criticises the US administration's policy on weapon use, calling it "nonsensical" and stating that it stems from an inability to define a clear strategic outcome.

• Jonathan highlights a Reuters interview with Zelensky where Zelensky states that Ukraine has been pleading with the US for permission to strike Russian territory with donated weapons, but "so far there is nothing positive"
• He contrasts this with the UK and France who have indicated they have no objections to Ukraine using weapons provided by them to strike targets inside Russia.
• Jonathan questions why there haven't been Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG strikes on targets inside Russia given that France and the UK have said this is ok. He speculates whether this is because the US is demanding that Ukraine not use donated weapons (from any country) to strike Russia, or whether these weapons are better used against higher value targets inside Ukraine.
• Fabian Hoffman suggests that the reason the Kerch bridge is still standing is due to Western imposed targeting restrictions. He argues that Ukraine has the capability to inflict significant damage to the bridge with SCALP-EG missiles but has not done so due to pressure not to do so.
• Jonathan lists ten key targets that Ukraine cannot strike due to the current restrictions, emphasising the disadvantage this poses for Ukraine. He argues that the restrictions prevent Ukraine from effectively deterring Russian invasions and create an imbalance where Russia can freely strike anywhere in Ukraine while facing no such threat on its own territory.
• Jonathan argues that the US needs to permit Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia, highlighting that the current limitations hinder Ukraine's ability to win the war or achieve any significant battlefield gains.
• Jonathan reads a user comment "Ukraine will also need MLRS cluster rockets launched from haimas m270s and the best equipped at f-16s possible"
• Jonathan shares the views of Victoria Nuland who has spoken out against the US position, acknowledging the need for Ukraine to target Russian bases within Russia to stop attacks. Jonathan points out that Nuland's stance marks a shift from her previous position during the Obama administration when she opposed providing lethal aid to Ukraine.
• Jonathan highlights comments made by Lithuania's Foreign Minister, Gabriels Landsbergis, who criticises the US imposed restrictions on using long-range missiles inside Russia as a mistake, stating that this is a gathering movement of people united against the US position.
• Jonathan expresses his agreement with these sentiments arguing that the restrictions are logically and doctrinally untenable, placing Ukraine at a disadvantage.
• Jonathan expresses his frustration with the situation, questioning the year-long delay in providing aid to Ukraine and the human cost associated with it. He criticises the seemingly arbitrary process Ukraine has to go through to receive weapons, emphasising the urgency of the situation and the need for immediate support.

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Zelensky's Reuters Interview

🎦 07:53-18:32⏩

Jonathan analyses comments made by Zelensky in a Reuters interview:

• Zelensky argues that all Western aid decisions are approximately a year late.
• Jonathan observes that Zelensky also suggested that allies could be more directly involved by intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine.
• Jonathan highlights Zelensky's assertion that Ukraine is being threatened with military aid being completely cut off.
• Jonathan reads excerpts from the Reuters article "Exclusive Western decisions on key military aid to Ukraine are too slow, Zelensky says" in which Zelensky criticises Western allies for their slow decision-making regarding military support for Ukraine.
• Zelensky reveals that he is pushing for partners to be more directly involved in the war with Russia by helping to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons against Russian military equipment amassing near the border.
• Zelensky expresses frustration that aid delivery, particularly air defence systems, feels like "one big step forward, but before that, two steps back" and that every decision takes around a year.
• Zelensky highlights the disparity in airpower, stating that Russia utilises 300 planes in Ukrainian airspace while Ukraine needs at least 120-130 (e.g. F-16s) to effectively resist.
• Zelensky suggests that NATO countries could use their own planes based in neighbouring countries to shoot down Russian targets and protect Ukrainian civilians, asserting that this would not constitute a NATO attack.
• Jonathan draws attention to Zelensky's statement that Ukraine is negotiating with international partners to use their weapons to strike Russian military hardware at the border and inside Russian territory. He emphasises that this confirms Ukraine is currently not allowed to do so.
• Jonathan criticises the US for sending mixed messages, suggesting that while publicly maintaining strategic ambiguity, they have privately pressured Ukraine not to strike targets inside Russia. Jonathan expresses frustration with this approach, arguing that it is not good enough.
• Zelensky reveals that there has been nothing positive so far regarding Ukraine’s requests to use Western weapons inside Russia.
• Jonathan highlights the US's resistance to Ukraine using missiles against internationally recognised Russian territory, which stems from concerns about escalation and the need to ensure a Ukrainian victory. Jonathan believes this to be an impossible situation, arguing that Ukraine cannot achieve victory if it cannot target threats emanating from within Russia.
• Jonathan compares this to the US's own approach to warfare, stating they would never accept such restrictions if they were in a similar situation.
• Zelensky acknowledges that the situation in the northeast of Ukraine is under Russian control after incursions across the border and attacks on Kharkiv. He emphasises that Russia is also pushing hard in the east, stretching Ukrainian forces thin along the 1,000km front line.
• Zelensky acknowledges that it will take time to prepare new recruits under the new mobilisation drive.
• Zelensky states that he does not foresee any major risks from a potential change in the US administration, even though the Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, is sceptical of Ukraine aid. However, he expresses concerns over some messages coming from the Republican side.
• Jonathan draws attention to The Daily Show's "Moscow Tools" segment, which exposes pro-Putin views within the MAGA movement. He expresses deep worry over the existence of such sentiments within the US political landscape.
• Jonathan acknowledges that there is bipartisan support for Ukraine in the US Congress, but notes the partisan flavour to it.

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Jonathan's Frustration with US Policy on Ukraine

🎦 18:32-24:00⏩

• Jonathan notes that despite a US pledge to supply Ukraine with weapons for as long as it takes for Russia to withdraw its troops, there are still restrictions on the use of those weapons. Jonathan questions whether this means a withdrawal to the 1991 borders or the 2014 borders.
• Jonathan believes the mixed messaging from the US stems from internal disagreements within the administration on how best to support Ukraine, suggesting that figures like Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan likely have differing opinions.
• He speculates that there is likely a range of views within the Department of Defense (DoD), with some advocating for a stronger stance on Ukraine and others urging caution to avoid escalation.
• Jonathan expresses his frustration with what he perceives as a "schizophrenic approach" to aiding Ukraine.
• Jonathan believes the US needs to adopt a more aggressive approach, suggesting that those advocating for anti-escalation, like Jake Sullivan, should be sidelined. He argues that preventing Ukraine from striking within Russia is counterproductive and questions the US administration's decision to make a public issue out of it.
• Jonathan believes that if the US had allowed Ukraine to use weapons however they see fit from the start, Russia would have eventually accepted it and the situation would have settled down. He argues that the US has created a rod for its own back, forcing Russia to react if Ukraine does use weapons inside its territory. He believes that Russia's only remaining escalation option is nuclear.
• Jonathan reiterates his frustration that Ukraine is not allowed to utilise weapons to their full potential and expresses sympathy for Zelensky's frustration.
• Jonathan speculates that the US might be trying to appease both pro-Ukraine and anti-Ukraine factions within the US by treading a delicate line in its support, seeking to avoid escalating tensions both domestically and internationally. However, he acknowledges uncertainty about the rationale behind this approach.
• Jonathan expresses his frustration with the situation, encourages viewers to share their thoughts, and says that he will do a separate video on Ukraine aid shortly.

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Wrap Up

🎦 24:00-24:00⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says he will release a separate video about Ukraine aid soon.

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