Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231117a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's a kind of one village at a time incremental progress that the Ukrainians seem to be making, and that's a challenge."
Hello Team!
Jonathan will be doing a live stream Q&A with Jonathan Fink, host of Silicon Curtain, at 12pm UK time today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses
- 1,140 Russian personnel losses, one of the highest of the conflict if not for yesterday's record numbers
- 27 tanks lost, a huge number for one day
- Lots of footage of drones hitting Russian personnel
- Artillery, HIMARS and Ukrainian long-range drones active
- Caveats about these figures can be found in the video description
Footage and reports from the frontlines
- Footage of Ukrainian forces destroying a Shahid drone with an auto-cannon
- Fierce fighting continues near Krynky with high Russian losses according to intercepted messages
- A Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS, BTR and several howitzers destroyed on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast
- Reports that Russian General Teplinsky sacrificed 76 soldiers as a distraction manoeuvre on the left bank of the Dnipro
Analysis of Russian losses from Andrew Perpetua
Andrew Perpetua's analysis shows a 4 to 1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses, including:
- 1 Russian Tor M2 air defence system
- 1 Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare system, a high value asset
- Various tanks, artillery pieces, infantry fighting vehicles and trucks
Western officials estimate of Russian casualties
- Western officials estimate Russia has sustained between 300,000-400,000 killed and wounded in the war so far
- Russia is losing between 500-1000 men per day in the heaviest fighting at Avdiivka
- Neither side seen as capable of a decisive operation currently, a prolonged conflict is likely
- A significant Ukrainian force of 3 brigades has established a bridgehead across the Dnipro that Russia has been unable to dislodge
Situation in Kherson and Dnipro River
According to a Russian military blogger:
- The Russian Dnipro group cannot destroy the Ukrainian companies holding a 10 sq km bridgehead due to their fragmentation and small numbers
- The Ukrainian forces on the right bank are putting down heavy fire of all types
- The 2 dispersed Russian companies cannot be collapsed yet
- Diverting Russian forces from neighbouring directions to this area is alarming
Overnight drone and missile attacks
- Ukraine shot down 9 out of 10 attack drones overnight using fighter jets, anti-aircraft missiles and mobile fire groups
- A 2nd and 3rd person died after mass shelling of Kherson, with power and Internet damaged
- Russia claims 3 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Smolensk
- Explosions and drones reported in Russian-controlled Smolensk, Crimea and Volgograd
- Russia claims 2 Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles were intercepted and destroyed off the coast of Crimea
Russian destabilization campaign against Ukraine
- Zelensky says Russia has launched a disinformation campaign called "Maidan 3" to destabilize Ukraine
- The campaign aims to sow division in Ukrainian society, create domestic chaos and ultimately remove Zelensky
- Zelensky rejects negotiations with Putin and says his government won't accept anything like a frozen conflict
Russian domestic issues and abducted Ukrainian children
- Russian billboards link abortion restrictions to replenishing military losses, reflecting a national push for more births
- Over 2,400 Ukrainian children were taken to facilities in Belarus since the invasion began, with the total number abducted estimated to be much higher
A Ukrainian's vinyl record collection destroyed and restored
Vasyl Solianyk, a resident of Russian-occupied Kamyanka village, had his collection of over 500 vinyl records destroyed by Russian soldiers living in his house during the occupation. After media shared his story, people from all over the world sent him records, record players and speakers to help restore his collection.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers and says he will return soon with a second news video. Stay tuned!
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information from the video transcript
Organize information into topics
Summarize each topic concisely
Use British English spelling and grammar
Format using the provided XML structure
Select a key quote from the video
Review summary to ensure all key points are covered
Considerations:
Focus on the most important and newsworthy information
Provide enough context for each topic
Maintain Jonathan's opinions and analysis
Use bullet points for lists where appropriate
Convert any American English spellings to British English
