Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"They [the Russians] are grinding out in a number of places, but it isn't like massively extensive. I am, however, worried about Chasiv Yar because I think that could spell the beginning of what might be a very long end for Chasiv Yar."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:22⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - this one a Ukraine War Frontline Update recorded on Friday. He's grateful to JR for creating the maps used in the video as it's important to understand the situation on the ground.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina Front

🎦 00:22-01:08⏩

Jonathan begins by looking at the Kypyansk-Svatove-Kremina Front, noting that it has become more stable with no changes in territory north of the Lyman salient for two weeks, which is positive for Ukraine.

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Donetsk Region: Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian Attack near Terny

🎦 01:08-02:26⏩

Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian military has repelled another attack in the village of Terny in the Donetsk region, with footage showing destroyed Russian vehicles. He highlights that open-source intelligence sources like Andrew Perpetua's team may only be capturing a portion of the actual equipment losses, using the example of how satellite imagery revealed more destroyed vehicles than initially identified. This suggests that the actual number of destroyed vehicles could be significantly higher.

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Russian Advances near Vesele

🎦 02:26-03:51⏩

Shifting focus to the Velesele area, Jonathan examines Russian claims of success. While acknowledging the lack of recent updates from Russian sources like Rybar, he emphasizes the importance of considering multiple perspectives. He notes that visual confirmation from various mappers ultimately reveals the reality on the ground. Jonathan analyses reports from Russian sources about advances near Vesele, highlighting that while Russian troops dislodged Ukrainian units from a stronghold, it remains uncertain whether they have been able to hold the position.

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Chasiv Yar: Fighting Intensifies on the Outskirts

🎦 03:51-07:03⏩

Jonathan observes that Russian forces are making progress in the Chasiv Yar area, with some sources claiming they have reached the town's edge. Despite differing reports on the extent of the Russian presence in Chasiv Yar, Jonathan emphasises the strategic importance of the location and the Ukrainians' determination to defend it. He analyses the situation, suggesting that while Ukrainian forces might try to counter-attack and regain lost ground, they face a difficult challenge. The fall of Chasiv Yar would be a setback but, in Jonathan's view, it's better to engage in defensive battles further east to protect strategically vital areas like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

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Overview of the Frontline and Recent Developments

🎦 07:03-08:46⏩

Jonathan reflects on President Zelensky's earlier statement that the front line has stabilised, acknowledging its validity to a certain extent. He predicts that Russia will likely continue to make incremental but costly gains in areas like Avdiivka and Novo-Mykhailivka. However, the overall situation appears to have reached a point of relative stability, with neither side achieving rapid breakthroughs. He voices concern over the situation in Chasiv Yar, speculating that it might be the start of a prolonged struggle for control, potentially similar to the situation in Avdiivka.

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Bakhmut: Heavy Russian Losses in Ongoing Assault

🎦 08:46-09:19⏩

Jonathan briefly revisits the situation around Bakhmut, reporting further footage of Russian losses. He recalls the earlier report of a Russian column suffering significant casualties in an attack on Bakhmut, estimating that nearly half of the 25 Russian armoured fighting vehicles involved were destroyed.

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Novomykolaivka: Ukrainians Hold Firm

🎦 09:19-10:34⏩

Despite claims from certain sources that Russia has taken control of Novomykolaivka, Jonathan presents evidence suggesting otherwise. He cites sources like Deep State Map and Andrew Perpetua who assert that Ukrainian forces still hold a tree line south of the settlement, indicating either a reorganisation of defensive lines or a successful counterattack. Jonathan stresses the strategic importance of Novomykolaivka in preventing a Russian encirclement or flanking manoeuvre against Pervomaiske, similar to the role played by Pobieda in protecting Mariinka.

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Novo-Mykhailivka: Russian Advances and Equipment Losses

🎦 10:34-11:57⏩

Jonathan acknowledges Russian advances around the northern parts of Novo-Mykhailivka, confirming earlier claims made by some sources. He suggests that the advances might not necessarily represent gains made in the last 24 hours but rather a confirmation of previous movements. He cites reports of a repelled Russian attack in the area, supported by visual evidence of destroyed equipment. Despite suffering setbacks, Jonathan recognises the persistent and costly nature of the Russian offensive in Novo-Mykhailivka, emphasizing its dynamic and fluid nature.

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Velyka Novosilka: Russian Gains Confirmed

🎦 11:57-12:50⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Velyka Novosilka, where he notes Deep State Maps' confirmation of Russian control over a slightly larger area to the west of Staromlynivka. While not a critical development, it reflects a degree of pressure on Ukrainian forces in the region.

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Robotyne: Ukrainians Mount Stubborn Defence

🎦 12:50-14:03⏩

Turning to Robotyne, Jonathan highlights Russian gains south of the settlement, corroborating previous reports. Despite expecting Ukrainian forces to cede the area due to its limited strategic value, he notes their persistent defence, suggesting they may be using Robotyne as a buffer zone to protect Orikhiv, similar to how Chasiv Yar safeguards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.

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Strategic Implications of Ukrainian Resistance

🎦 14:03-15:00⏩

Jonathan analyses the implications of the Ukrainian strategy, recognizing their decision to establish defensive lines in areas like Robotyne. This forces Russia into slow and grinding advances, limiting their ability to achieve significant breakthroughs.

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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Airbases

🎦 15:00-16:09⏩

Jonathan discusses the significance of Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases, including Morozovsk and Engels, which reportedly resulted in the destruction of Russian aircraft. He speculates that these strikes might force Russia to reduce their reliance on air power, potentially hindering their ability to replicate the tactics used in Avdiivka, where heavy bombing played a crucial role in dislodging Ukrainian forces. The effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases could prove advantageous for Ukrainian forces defending against Russian assaults.

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Wrap up

🎦 16:09-16:28⏩

Jonathan concludes by expressing hope that Ukraine can maintain pressure on Russian airbases, hampering their ability to provide effective air support. He thanks viewers for their time and acknowledges the volume of content produced, hinting at a possible reduction in output over the weekend.

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