Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
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"There are a number of pieces of kit that are taken out that we don't see visual evidence for on the day or in a week that they were taken out. And you're left wondering. But then the footage does eventually turn up and this my basic point is that footage like this maybe old is useful to know about because it does lend credence to the Ukrainian claims."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine War for 17 September 2023. The second part will be delayed due to Sunday sports practices for his kids.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 530 Russian personnel losses, higher than the previous day which may have been due to poor weather hampering manoeuvres
- Lowest tank (4) and APV (4) losses in some time
- 15 artillery systems lost is considerable but lower than seen previously
- Dom Nichols from Ukraine: The Latest podcast suggests taking 20% off Ukrainian figures for accuracy, which Jonathan notes would still be bad for Russia
- Two multiple launch rocket systems and two anti-aircraft warfare systems (likely Buk systems) lost will hurt Russia
- Four drones and twelve vehicles/fuel tanks lost
- Five pieces of special equipment lost is double the daily average and could include de-mining equipment, excavators, ISR, or electronic warfare kit
Visual Confirmation of Russian Losses
Andrew Perpetua, who Jonathan relies on for mapping, adds up figures from social media video imagery of Russian losses. A lot of kit is listed but some highlighted in yellow may not be recent losses. Losses include:
- Ship air defence systems (Buk complexes)
- Surveillance and communications/ISR equipment
- Significant artillery, tank and IFV losses
- Civilian trucks and vehicles also lost
For Ukrainian losses, a couple of Lancet drones caused damage. The rest are first-person view drones, likely from montage footage where the timestamp of the losses is unknown. Ukrainian losses are mainly APCs and IFVs, nothing major to worry about.
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Two Russian Buk M3 Air Defence Systems Destroyed
Two modern Russian Buk M3 air defence systems were located and destroyed by a Ukrainian drone near Russian-occupied Svitlodarsk in Donetsk. This is significant because: 1) Two high-value air defence assets were taken out in one go 2) Ukrainian Shark drones seem to be effective and not hampered by Russian electronic warfare There are many recent examples of Shark drones spotting targets for destruction, especially Russian air defences. In one case, a Shark drone supposedly found extra targets on the way back from a mission.
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Shark Drone Effectiveness
Shark drones, indigenously created by Ukraine, appear to be very effective at the moment in spotting targets, particularly Russian air defence systems, without being affected by electronic warfare. There is a lot of footage of Shark drones enabling the destruction of significant amounts of Russian equipment in recent weeks.
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Undocumented S-300 V4 Air Defence System Losses
Two previously undocumented losses of modern S-300 V4 long-range air defence system vehicles in Luhansk Oblast have come to light. While these are old losses, it lends credence to Ukrainian claims of destroying Russian air defences even when visual evidence is not immediately available. Footage of such destroyed systems can emerge months later, suggesting Ukrainian figures are more realistic than Russian critics claim.
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Wagner Group Losses in Africa
The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, reportedly lost 4 aircraft (2 Mi-8 helicopters, 1 Su-25, 1 AN-25) in one week in Africa due to technical problems. This comes as the Russian Expeditionary Force (REC) is expanding to potentially 40,000 personnel, seemingly to replace Wagner. Jonathan speculates whether the aircraft losses were somehow purposeful as part of an internal elimination or assimilation of Wagner into the Russian MOD as Wagner gets replaced by other Russian PMCs under MOD control. The troops are really needed in Ukraine but their deployment to Africa may indicate how important Africa is financially to Russia.
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Overnight Long-Distance Strikes
- Ukrainian air defences shot down 12 cruise missiles and drones over Odesa, Dnipro, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia overnight. 6 out of 10 cruise missiles and all 6 Shahed drones were downed.
- Several missiles struck agricultural facilities in southern Odesa.
- The Russian attack had constant changes in missile direction and mix of missiles with/without warheads, likely to locate Ukrainian air defences in preparation for a main attack.
- Jonathan notes there haven't been many cruise missile attacks recently and thinks Russia may be stockpiling for a massive wave of strikes in autumn/winter to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
- Footage shows a cruise missile being shot down over Odesa.
Drone Attacks in Russia
A Ukrainian drone allegedly attacked an oil depot in Oryol, Russia. Some claim it was shot down by air defences but fell on the depot. Damage is seen to many buildings and minibuses, suggesting it may have been a military barracks transporting troops. The strikes appear to be from JDAMs (precision guided bombs). Meanwhile, Kharkiv was hit again this morning, likely by Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles used in a surface-to-surface mode. While less accurate, their ballistic trajectory makes them hard for Ukraine to intercept and Russia has thousands of these missiles.
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Other News
- Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov is reportedly in a coma with serious kidney problems. If he dies, it will be interesting to see what happens with the power vacuum left behind.
- Russian forces stationed in the Arctic near Norway are at 20% or less of pre-invasion levels as troops and air defence systems get pulled to Ukraine. Russia has little need for a full complement of troops on western borders during the war.
- Russia seems desperate for troops as it conducts "crypto mobilisation" - rounding up legal/illegal migrants, adapting health criteria to allow people with conditions like schizophrenia to be mobilised, etc.
- Jonathan believes Russia will need to conduct a proper mass mobilisation at some point to have any chance of achieving their maximalist goals in Ukraine, but Putin is reticent as it would be political suicide. Bringing in foreign fighters like Cubans will only go so far.
Wrap up
Jonathan will provide the second part of the update later in the early afternoon as he needs to take his kids to Sunday sports practices. He thanks viewers for watching.
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