Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They are going to be running short on potentially most things with the attrition rates that they've been experiencing in all parts of the front line"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a "non-granular" and quick frontline update, explaining that he's been busy covering the NATO summit and a lot of geopolitical news. He apologises for the length of his recent Geopolitics video and reminds viewers to check the map key if needed.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
New York Times: Limited Russian Gains Expected
🎦 00:35-01:30⏩
Jonathan highlights a New York Times article stating that US officials believe Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in the coming months due to poorly trained forces and strengthened Ukrainian defences. He agrees with this assessment, believing that the Russians are nearing their limit. He notes that Ukraine is mobilizing and equipping new brigades, likely for rotations.
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Kharkiv: Ukrainian Gains near Lyobeke
🎦 01:30-02:57⏩
Jonathan observes that in the Kharkiv sectors, there have been no changes reported by Andrew Perpetua's mapping. However, both Deep State Maps and Syriac Maps indicate a third advance in this area, with Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian troops near Lyobeke. Specifically, Ukrainians have reportedly increased control over warehouses north of Lyobeke and are pushing Russians out of northern agricultural warehouses. There's some disagreement on the situation within Lyobeke itself, with Syriac Maps showing potential increased Russian control. In the western sector, Syriac Maps shows a slight Russian retreat south of Sturtsya, but other maps remain unchanged.
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Liman-Kupyansk: Minor Russian Advance
🎦 02:57-03:46⏩
Moving to the Liman-Kupyansk direction, Jonathan reports a small Russian advance southeast of Lyman-Pershi, near Vilshana and Pershotravneve, with Deep State Maps and Suriat Maps showing Russians now control a large field in the area.
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Kreminna: Russian Gains, Map Discrepancies
🎦 03:46-05:13⏩
Jonathan points out that near Kreminna, there have been significant Russian gains over the past couple of days west of Krokmelna, near Piszchany, according to Deep State and Suriat. However, Andrew Perpetua's map remains more conservative, showing no change. No changes are reported in other hotspots along the northeastern axis, including Terny, Torske, and the Serebryansky Forest. There's also been no change along the Siversk front.
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Bakhmut: Russian Advance to Canal, Potential Pause
🎦 05:13-06:25⏩
Jonathan says the situation in Bakhmut has been relatively quiet, with no change in Chasiv Yar. He speculates that the Russians might be taking a breather after pushing hard to reach the canal, which they have successfully done on all three points. While no maps show Russians reaching the culvert or bridge at Kalinivka, they have advanced up to the canal south of the town, both in the canal micro district and a wooded area further south. Jonathan suggests the Russians may be consolidating their supply lines and reconstituting before attempting to take Chasiv Yar, questioning whether they have the forces to do so without exhausting themselves.
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Donetsk City: Small Russian Advances in Krasnohorivka
🎦 06:25-08:51⏩
Jonathan notes no changes in the Turetsk or New York areas of the Donetsk City front, which is positive news for Ukraine after concerns about Russian advances there in recent weeks. However, he expresses concern about Russian movement westward along a tree line and water feature towards Vodiane, potentially bringing them closer to the T0504 highway. Deep State Maps, in particular, reflects this advance. Further south, near Lozove, both Deep State and Suriat Maps indicate Russian progress, with Deep State suggesting they've pushed even further toward Pokrovsk. Jonathan confirms that all maps now acknowledge the Russian salient or bridgehead west of Soledar, extending into Jahidne. He also observes Russian attempts to encircle Novoselivka Persha from the direction of Novopokrovka. Within Krasnohorivka, Russians have advanced around the sports ground and a park area, taking parts of roads on either side. No changes are reported south of Maryinka, in Novomykhailivka, or around Velyka Novosilka, which has been relatively quiet.
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Vuhledar: Gains for Russia West of Novopokrovka
🎦 08:51-09:46⏩
Jonathan highlights that both Andriy Perpetua and Suriat Maps show Russian gains in the Robotyne area. He refers to NOL Reports, which confirms Russian advances along the T0803 highway west of Novopokrovka based on newly geolocated footage. However, NOL Reports cautions that these advances may not be recent due to limited footage emerging from the region. This footage seems to be the basis for the updates from Suriat Maps and Andriy Perpetua.
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Overall Assessment
🎦 09:46-10:16⏩
Jonathan concludes that the Russians are generally making progress in parts of the Eastern Front, but many areas remain quiet. He reiterates his earlier point that it's unclear how much further they can advance, particularly given potential resource constraints and high attrition rates. He mentions mainstream media reports also suggest limited further Russian gains are likely.
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Wrap Up
🎦 10:16-11:01⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share. He acknowledges the current dynamic and busy news environment, with the NATO summit, Orban's visit, Modi's meeting, and China's actions all happening simultaneously. He signs off with his usual "Toodlepips."
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