Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline 2-Week+ Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians seem to be operating on this calculus that um we don't really care about our troops so as long as we're making kilometers it doesn't matter what we lose to make those gains our metric of success is square kilometers alone."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes his viewers to the latest Ukraine War Map Update video. He explains that this is a 2-week update due to his holiday, and that he will be comparing two different mappers: Andrew Perpetua, whose maps reflect the current situation, and Suriat Maps, a pro-Russian mapper whose maps depict the situation from two weeks ago. This comparison will reveal the changes that have occurred over the past two weeks. Jonathan states that he is surprised by the number of changes and Russian advancements, especially on the eastern front line. He points out the differences between the two mappers and outlines the areas he will be examining.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Ukrainian Advancements in Sumy Oblast
🎦 01:27-02:38⏩
Jonathan focuses on Sumy Oblast, highlighting Ukrainian advancements in this area. He details the extent of the Ukrainian gains, emphasizing its significance - a large area stretching 53 kilometers at its widest point and approximately 30 kilometers at its deepest. Jonathan compares this territory to the Isle of Wight, showcasing the scale of the Ukrainian success.
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Slight Ukrainian Retreats near Kharkiv
🎦 02:38-03:40⏩
Jonathan acknowledges a minor Ukrainian withdrawal in the area north of Kharkiv. He discusses the potential implications of these changes, considering the broader context of the Kursk Oblast advancements and the possibility of further Ukrainian activity in this region. He also highlights existing discrepancies between the two mappers, emphasizing that these differences do not necessarily indicate major shifts in the front line.
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Russian Advancements Southeast of Synkivka
🎦 03:40-04:11⏩
Jonathan observes Russian advancements east of Synkivka. He points out the differing interpretations of the front line by the two mappers, emphasizing the ambiguity in this area.
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Significant Russian Gains around Tabayevka
🎦 04:11-05:19⏩
Jonathan highlights substantial Russian gains around Tabayevka and Krochmalna. He details the extent of these advancements, emphasizing the Russian push towards the Oskil River. Jonathan compares these gains to those made by the Ukrainians in Kursk Oblast, noting that while the Russian gains are significant, they are still smaller than the Ukrainian advancements.
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Ukrainian Counteroffensive near Mykhivka
🎦 05:19-06:16⏩
Jonathan discusses a Ukrainian counteroffensive near Mykhivka. He highlights the success of the 3rd Assault Brigade in pushing back the Russians and inflicting significant casualties (approximately 300 Russian soldiers). Jonathan emphasizes the asymmetric nature of these gains, considering the Ukrainians were outnumbered. He credits the Ukrainian success to effective maneuver tactics, although specific details are still scarce.
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Changes in the Serebryansky Forest
🎦 06:16-06:45⏩
Jonathan examines changes in the Serebryansky Forest. He suggests that the Ukrainians may have pushed the Russians back in this area, highlighting the importance of understanding the context of the mapping and acknowledging the discrepancies between the two mappers.
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Russian Advancements near Voknok and Myyanka
🎦 06:45-07:21⏩
Jonathan notes Russian advancements in the areas of Voknok and Myyanka. He acknowledges that these changes are not significant in terms of territory but highlight a shift in the front line. Jonathan emphasizes the potential impact of Andrew Perpetua's map updating to reflect the changes made by Suriat Maps, suggesting that some of the alterations may be more about alignment than substantial gains.
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Russian Gains North of Soledar and Bakhmut
🎦 07:21-07:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian recapture of significant territory north of Soledar and Bakhmut. He emphasizes the scale of these gains and notes the potential impact of the Kursk Oblast situation on the overall deployment of Russian forces.
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Unclear Situation in Kody and Mivka
🎦 07:51-08:31⏩
Jonathan highlights conflicting reports about the situation in Kody and Mivka. There are claims of a Ukrainian flag being raised, potentially by drone. He acknowledges the ambiguity of these reports, as drone flag drops are a tactic employed by both sides. He expresses hope for Ukrainian advancements but expresses uncertainty about the veracity of the information.
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Significant Russian Gains around Turetsk
🎦 08:31-09:31⏩
Jonathan examines significant Russian gains around Turetsk. He emphasizes the extent of these advancements and the impact on the outskirts of the town, highlighting signs of ongoing fighting. He emphasizes the vulnerability of Turetsk to Russian attacks and the potential for the town to fall into Russian hands.
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Russian Capture of New York
🎦 09:31-10:03⏩
Jonathan notes the Russian capture of New York. He describes the Russian advance into the area and the Ukrainians' inability to cut off the Russian forces despite the thin bridgehead. Jonathan emphasizes the lack of Ukrainian troops available for a counteroffensive, questioning the feasibility of the rumoured attacks on the Kinburn Spit and Tendra Spit.
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Rumors of Ukrainian Attacks on the Kinburn and Tendra Spits
🎦 10:03-10:43⏩
Jonathan discusses rumours of Ukrainian attacks on the Kinburn Spit and Tendra Spit, highlighting concerns about the feasibility of these offensives given the Ukrainian deployment elsewhere. He questions the allocation of resources, suggesting that a counteroffensive in New York might have been a more strategic priority.
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Russian Advancements in the Prokrosk Area
🎦 10:43-11:57⏩
Jonathan highlights substantial Russian gains in the Prokrosk area. He points out the significant amount of land captured, emphasizing the strategic importance of the T0504 highway connecting Prokrosk to Kostantynivka. He notes the Russian failure to advance further despite their gains and their shift towards the south. Jonathan questions the location and effectiveness of the Ukrainian defenses east of Prokrosk, suggesting that the Ukrainians may be employing a strategy of conceding territory to bleed the Russians.
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Ukrainian Defense Strategies in the Prokrosk Area
🎦 11:57-13:20⏩
Jonathan continues to discuss the Ukrainian defense strategies in the Prokrosk area. He theorizes that the Ukrainians might be deliberately ceding territory to draw the Russians deeper, allowing them to sustain heavy losses while the Ukrainians await a more decisive engagement at fortified positions. He acknowledges the long rotations for Ukrainian troops in the area and questions the troop allocation strategy given the rumored offensives in other regions.
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Rumors of Ukrainian Troop Concentration
🎦 13:20-13:46⏩
Jonathan addresses the Russian claims of a Ukrainian troop concentration. He expresses uncertainty about the accuracy of these claims, highlighting the conflicting information available. He acknowledges that the Russians might be deliberately spreading misinformation to create a sense of anticipation and fear among Ukrainian forces.
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Russian Advancements in the Krasnoyarsk Area
🎦 13:46-14:07⏩
Jonathan focuses on the Russian gains in the Krasnoyarsk area, noting the fall of Krasnoyerasnoyarsk despite the continued Ukrainian control of its outer suburbs.
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No Changes around Mariinka and Krasnoyarsk
🎦 14:07-14:20⏩
Jonathan reports no significant changes in the areas of Mariinka and Krasnoyarsk. He highlights the relative stability of the front line in these regions, offering a glimmer of positive news.
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Continued Russian Pressure on Vuhledar
🎦 14:20-15:19⏩
Jonathan highlights the ongoing Russian pressure on Vuhledar. He discusses the Russian push towards Konstantinovka, aiming to gain control of the road leading to Vuhledar. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of this road for the Russians as it allows them to access high ground and attack Vuhledar from the northeast. He recalls the heavy losses suffered by the Russians during previous attacks on Vuhledar from the south and highlights the potential for a more successful approach from the northeast.
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Heavy Russian Losses around Vuhledar
🎦 15:19-15:51⏩
Jonathan reiterates the heavy losses sustained by the Russians in previous attempts to capture Vuhledar. He discusses the Russian strategy of prioritizing territorial gains at the cost of significant casualties, emphasizing their disregard for troop lives. He points out the availability of footage showing the fighting around Vuhledar and the heavy losses inflicted on Russian forces by Ukrainian artillery.
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Russian Gains in the Urazhiny Area
🎦 15:51-16:31⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian gains in the Urazhiny area near Staromiyorski. He highlights the slow but steady Russian progress, culminating in the capture of the town. Jonathan acknowledges the limited significance of this gain but emphasizes the ongoing Russian pressure on the Ukrainian defenses.
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Ukrainian Successes in the Velikonovo-Silka and Robotina Areas
🎦 16:31-16:55⏩
Jonathan reports positive developments for the Ukrainians in the Velikonovo-Silka and Robotina areas. He notes that the Russians have failed to retake territory lost to the Ukrainians during the May counteroffensive. Jonathan emphasizes the significance of these successes as a sign of Ukrainian resilience and effective defense.
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Changes on the Zaporizhia Front Line
🎦 16:55-17:35⏩
Jonathan examines changes on the Zaporizhia front line. He acknowledges Russian advancements in the area between Drozhnyanka and Marfa pill. He highlights the dynamic nature of the front line, emphasizing that not all changes necessarily reflect recent activity and that some updates may reflect developments that occurred months ago. He emphasizes the importance of context and the need to interpret changes with caution.
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Concern for the Prokrosk Road
🎦 17:35-17:58⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the Prokrosk road, highlighting the potential vulnerability created by Russian advancements. He reiterates the significance of this road and the challenges it presents for Ukrainian logistics.
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Ukrainian Defense of Chesivyar
🎦 17:58-18:13⏩
Jonathan praises the Ukrainian defense of Chesivyar, highlighting their successful resistance to Russian advances. He emphasizes the effectiveness of their strategy, which has resulted in minimal territorial losses for the Ukrainians despite significant Russian pressure.
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Russian Pressure on the Siversk Front Line
🎦 18:13-18:57⏩
Jonathan examines the increasing Russian pressure on the Siversk front line. He notes the Russian push north of Soledar and the ongoing fighting in Ivano-Dorivka. He discusses the ambiguity of the situation in the area, emphasizing the importance of understanding Suriat Maps' interpretation of this region and the potential for significant changes. He highlights the strategic importance of Siversk for the Ukrainians and the risk posed by Russian attempts to gain control of the area.
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Eastern Frontline Update
🎦 18:57-19:40⏩
Jonathan provides an overview of the eastern front line. He notes the significant gains made by the Russians, but also acknowledges Ukrainian successes in the Kursk Oblast. He describes the ongoing game of "military chicken" between the two sides, emphasizing the importance of determining which side will ultimately yield first.
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Map Update Plans
🎦 19:40-20:11⏩
Jonathan outlines his plans for updating his maps. He acknowledges the delay caused by his holiday and states that he will resume regular map updates, potentially starting the next day. He encourages viewers to stay tuned for further updates and pins on his maps, which will provide daily insights into the evolving situation.
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Wrap Up
🎦 20:11-20:11⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers for their support and expresses his appreciation for their patience during the map update delay. He assures them that he will be back soon with more updates and says goodbye.
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