Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"They [the Russians] are just keeping up that relentless pressure on the Ukrainian, on Ukraine. However, they are not having huge success in finding their targets with these drones."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War News Update (Part 1) for 10/09/2024. He's going to start with the Ukrainian General Staff figures.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Figures
🎦 00:10-01:52⏩
- The Ukrainian General Staff report that Russia has lost 1,380 personnel, 1 tank, 19 armoured personnel carriers, 50 artillery systems, 68 vehicles and fuel tanks and 4 pieces of special equipment. This is a significant loss for Russia, particularly the artillery and personnel.
- Jonathan notes that this very high figure could be as a result of the attacks by Russia in the Turetsk, New York, Prokrovsk and Seladovye areas, as well as activity around Velska, Krasnohorevka and Vuhledar. Vodianie is under a lot of pressure. He also notes that there is a lot of activity on the frontlines, especially around Kursk and Kharkiv.
- There are no Andrew Perpetua maps with visually confirmed equipment losses.
- Now SHE updates for the Kharkiv, Prokhorovka, and Kursk areas.
- In Prokhorovka, since October, the Russians have lost five times as much equipment as the Ukrainians.
- In Kharkiv, the Russians initially did well in a surprise attack. After the Ukrainians brought in self-propelled howitzers, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses is 2:1.
- In Kursk, the ratio is 4:3, with the Ukrainians on the attack. Since this is a newer offensive, that's pretty good for Ukraine.
- This means that the overall visually confirmed equipment loss ratio is 1.5:1.
- Statistically, the Ukrainians appear to be slightly better at attacking and not losing as much equipment (and personnel).
- Jonathan infers that the Russians, on the other hand, are not too bothered about their own attrition, instead opting for the meat wave and vehicle wave approach. Their doctrine seems to be "Don't care if you lose inordinate amounts of stuff as long as we take square kilometres."
- Now SHE shows that, unsurprisingly, the Ukrainians have lost mostly troop-carrying vehicles. The Russians have lost mostly trucks, engineering, river pontoon systems, Ural trucks, some armoured personnel vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles, and not too many tanks recently.
Bayraktar TB2 Drones - Still in use?
🎦 06:05-08:15⏩
- Kyrylo Budanov says that Ukraine are still using the Bayraktar TB2 Drones.
- At the beginning of the war, they were very effective in destroying long columns of Russian vehicles, but the footage was spread out over time, perhaps to give the illusion of their effectiveness over a longer period.
- Jonathan speculates that they have more recently been used for reconnaissance, for example, in Kherson Oblast and the Black Sea area, around the Tendritska Spit, and that they are well-suited for that task as they have fairly good cameras with a long sight.
- Due to strengthening Russian air defense, Ukraine have had to adapt by using the Bayraktar drones more for reconnaissance and real-time artillery coordination.
- A Russian source reports that whenever a Ukrainian drone is shot down on the front line, other Ukrainian drones swarm the location and attack, as the Russians have given away their position. They therefore advise that if you see a drone, put your head down and hide.
Two AN-2 Pilots killed in Moscow Region - Friendly Fire?
🎦 09:08-10:46⏩
- A small AN-2 plane crashed in the Moscow region during a test flight, killing both pilots.
- Jonathan notes that there have been many similar accidents involving the AN-2.
- This leads him to observe that, in light of the recent waves of Ukrainian drone attacks, he would not want to be a light aircraft pilot in Russia at the moment. If you look like a drone, you are a prime target, either for air defences or trigger-happy Russians. He wonders how the Russians distinguish between drones and genuine light aircraft, and what the protocol is when they see one.
Orenburg Oil Pipeline Fire
🎦 10:46-11:26⏩
- There was a fire in an oil pipeline in the Orenburg region (930 km from Ukraine), killing two and injuring three.
- Russia says it's due to welding work and not a drone attack.
Russia: Another 46 Drone/Missile Attacks on Ukraine Overnight
🎦 11:26-13:14⏩
- The previous night, Russia had only launched eight Shahed drones into Ukraine.
- Despite the low numbers, and Jonathan's belief that Russia must be running low, Russia launched a further 46 drones into Ukraine.
- Jonathan speculates that Russia is keeping up the relentless pressure, but is not having great success. The Ukrainians have adapted well to the Shahed drones.
- 38 of the 46 were shot down.
- Of the remaining eight, three left Ukrainian territory. Jonathan wonders if they were spoofed by Ukrainian electronic warfare, or sent the wrong way.
- A further three were brought down due to electronic warfare measures. This means that two of the 46 drones reached their targets.
- Russia also launched one Iskander M ballistic missile and one Kh-31P anti-radar missile, but there is no information about the damage caused.
Ukraine: Drone Attacks on Numerous Russian Regions Overnight
🎦 13:14-16:09⏩
- Ukraine sent approximately 144 drones into Russia, reaching deep into its rear. Regions targeted included Smolensk, Orel, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Tula, Moscow and Bryansk.
- The Russian Defence Ministry claim that all 144 drones were shot down overnight by air defence forces, but they have a tendency to claim 100% success. The breakdown is 72 in Bryansk, 20 in Moscow, 14 in Kursk, 13 in Tula, 8 in Belgorod, 7 in Kaluga, 5 in Voronezh, 4 in Lipetsk and 1 in Orel.
- Two points are of note. Firstly, 20 drones reached Moscow, bringing the war to the Russians. Secondly, 72 (half of the total number) were shot down in Bryansk. This coincides with claims from Russian sources that there has been some activity on the Bryansk border. Jonathan doubts that Ukraine have the capacity to launch another major incursion into Russian territory, but it is a possibility.
Drone Strike on Ramenskoye (Moscow) - Civilian Casualties and Injuries
🎦 16:16-23:15⏩
- A drone struck a building in the Moscow suburb of Ramenskoye, causing casualties and injuries.
- Zhukovsky Airport in the Moscow region was also targeted. Numerous flights were delayed, including at Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports. There has been an immense amount of footage of the drone attacks.
- Jonathan speculates that the drones appear to have been aiming for Zhukovsky Airport, and that those that hit the apartment blocks nearby may have been sent off course by electronic warfare and air defense.
- A lot of footage is coming out of the drone attacks, with drones slamming into apartment blocks in and around Moscow. Whilst civilian infrastructure is not intentionally being targeted, civilians are being affected.
- This has been happening for a long time now, reminding Russians that the war is ongoing. It remains to be seen whether this will unite them behind Putin's war, or cause them to push for the war to stop.
- Tim White has posted a long thread with videos and information about the drone attacks, many of which show the terrifying reality for the civilians on the ground.
- In one, a drone can be seen spinning out of control (perhaps as a result of electronic warfare) before smashing into an apartment block.
- Many videos show significant damage to apartment blocks around Zhukovsky Airport, which appears to have been the target.
- Tim White notes that whilst Ukrainians are taking the necessary precautions during such attacks, many Russians can be seen standing at their windows, even when their building is about to be attacked!
- Many more videos show Russian air defences deflecting drones into apartment blocks. In one video, the aftermath of a drone hitting a house in Prudky, near Ramenskoye, can be seen in daylight - even worse than it looked in the night.
Timothy Milovanov's Analysis of the Drone Attacks
🎦 23:15-28:01⏩
- 54 out of 102 apartments in the building hit in Ramenskoye were damaged, likely by a drone deflected by Russian air defence.
- Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were quite successful, despite the Russians shooting many down.
- Timothy Milovanov highlights several key aspects of the drone attacks:
- Russian official media are no longer downplaying the attacks, or the fact that explosions are happening in Moscow, as they can’t ignore them any more.
- The attacks are publicly challenging Putin’s illusion of control, which will likely be more damaging in the long run, as Putin has cultivated an image of strength and control.
- Moscow’s airspace and airports have been disrupted, with other airports across Russia shut down as well. This appears to be a concerted campaign of asymmetric warfare, similar to Ukraine’s attacks on the Black Sea Fleet.
- 144 is likely the lower bound of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia. There have been estimates as high as 300. If Russia are only reporting on a third of what is actually happening, 400 drones may have been launched into Russia in one night.
- Jonathan believes that Russia are probably quite good at shooting down drones, especially in Moscow, but that Ukraine’s aim is to degrade and overwhelm Russian air defences.
Heavy Strikes on Tokmak and Mykhailivka
🎦 28:01-28:46⏩
- At the same time as the drone attacks, there were reports of heavy strikes on Tokmak and Mykhailivka in the occupied Zaporizhia region. These towns were previously targeted with HIMARS to degrade capabilities when the Ukrainian counter-offensive stalled there. It is interesting that Ukraine is focusing on them again.
Three Shahed Drones Violate Romanian Airspace
🎦 28:46-30:59⏩
- Three Shahed drones have violated Romanian airspace (NATO common airspace).
- One came down in the Periprava area of Tulcea County.
- A second is wanted in the area of Cararamana, also in Tulcea County.
- The third entered Romania from Vilcova, heading towards Navodari (again, in Tulcea County).
- They were Shahed 136 drones capable of carrying a 50kg warhead, which could cause heavy damage to populated areas.
- However, the area in question is the Romanian army’s firing range.
- Radu Hosu, the Romanian analyst, is disappointed by the underwhelming reaction of the Romanian prime minister and president, especially given that it is a NATO strategic military objective. He believes that it may be a deliberate provocation by Russia, and those who dismiss that hypothesis are naive.
- Jonathan observes that not all Shahed drones carry warheads. Some are dummies to attract air defense systems, and some carry cameras.
Russian FAB-500 UMPK Bomb Strike on Kupiansk
🎦 31:00-31:30⏩
- A Russian FAB-500 UMPK bomb strike hit Kupiansk, which is under increasing pressure since Synkivka fell to the Russians.
- Jonathan believes that the Russians could be shaping Kupiansk for an assault, although he doesn’t think they have the capability in the near future.
Zelensky's Roadmap to Peace
🎦 31:30-33:46⏩
- Zelensky is developing a unilateral roadmap to end the war by autumn 2024, by applying international pressure on Russia to secure peace.
- His plan focuses on support from Ukrainian allies rather than Russian cooperation, by applying pressure through additional military aid.
- This coincides with reports that Olaf Scholz is drafting a peace plan. Jonathan hopes that Scholz’s plan will not use military aid as leverage to force a peace deal on Ukraine. There has been a lot of pushback against Scholz’s proposal, especially as it suggests that Ukraine’s sea territory is occupied by Russia.
- It is believed that Scholz’s plan is a reaction to the success of the right-wing AFD and the far-left Die Linke in recent elections in East Germany. The AFD are also pushing for Germany to put border points on all nine of its borders (violating the Schengen Agreement), clearly in response to their rise in popularity.
- Jonathan notes that these events in Germany do not bode well for European unity or continued support for Ukraine.
White House Report to Congress on Ukraine War Strategy
🎦 33:46-34:22⏩
- The White House has finally submitted its secret report to Congress outlining its strategy for the war in Ukraine, which was part of the $61 billion aid package passed in April 2024.
- There was a 45-day deadline to submit the report, which would have been in June, but it has only just been received by lawmakers, and not yet reviewed. Jonathan believes it will be leaked in a matter of days.
Shoigu: No Negotiations
🎦 34:22-35:23⏩
- Shoigu has said that the Russians will not entertain peace negotiations whilst the Ukrainians are in Kursk.
- Jonathan points out that the Ukrainians could say the same, given that the Russians are still in Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea, Zaporizhia, Kherson and Kharkiv! This cuts both ways.
- It is interesting that there is a push to wrap up the war, which may suit the Russians rather than the Ukrainians. Kursk is therefore an important bargaining chip. The Ukrainians wouldn’t have this leverage if they had sent those troops to Prokhorovka.
Kursk Situation Update - Heavy Fighting, Drones, Russian Apology, Looting and Lies
🎦 35:23-40:13⏩
- Ukraine have redeployed two more brigades to the Prokhorovka region.
- WarTranslated reports fierce fighting in Kursk, with a significant presence of Ukrainian drones.
- It is thought that the Wagner Group may be moving to Prokhorovka. They previously went to Kharkiv during the attack, and then to Kursk.
- Two attacks have been repelled in the Sudzha district, in the area of Mala Lukania.
- There is intensive fighting in the Koronovka direction.
- Russian Aerospace Forces are attacking the forest belts where the enemy are hiding.
- Ukraine are bringing in reserves, including experienced drone operators.
- The village of Gruzkoye in the Belgorod region came under Ukrainian MLRS fire.
- In Kharkiv, Russia continues to regroup and accumulate forces in the northeastern outskirts of the village of Lyptsi.
- Russia attacked the area around Kharkiv with at least 100 aircraft-type drones.
- Some Russian military bloggers have claimed there are far fewer Ukrainian drones in Kursk than other areas.
- However, one Russian source says that the road towards the settlements of Apanasavka, Komorovka, and Tyotkino have become flight paths for enemy drones. Every five minutes a kamikaze drone comes in.
- There have been further claims of fighting on the Bryansk border, which may or may not be linked to the drones.
- The Two Majors Telegram channel claims that Ukrainian FPV drones are very active on supply roads in Kursk.
- Russian aviation is very active, with many guided glide bombs being dropped.
- The mayor of Kursk has had to apologise for using an image of a Ukrainian soldier holding a child in a recruitment ad.
- Footage shows that a Russian soldier looted abandoned shops in Glushkovo and Rylsk (Kursk), before moving onto shops that were in use, firing his gun into the roof to scare a family with young children. Russian sources say the gunman has been detained, but deny he was a soldier, claiming he was a member of Rosgvardiya.
Death of David Knowles
🎦 40:38-43:21⏩
- Jonathan is affected by the death of David Knowles, aged 32, the founder and co-host of The Telegraph’s Ukraine: The Latest podcast, from a sudden cardiac arrest in Gibraltar. He praises the work of all those who work on the podcast, which he believes has been a crucial source of accurate information presented with a strong moral dimension.
- Jonathan hopes that the podcast will continue. He praises Knowles for being the anchor and the glue that held the podcast together.
- The Kyiv Independent says that Knowles’s death is a huge loss, as he was crucial to keeping the world informed about Ukraine, and was a joy to be around. Jonathan agrees, pointing out that many have been affected by Knowles’s death, and not just because it was a great podcast: it provided a great service by countering the misinformation around the war in Ukraine.
Death of James Earl Jones
🎦 43:23-43:56⏩
- James Earl Jones (the voice of Darth Vader in Star Wars) has died.
- Jonathan reminds viewers that Darth Vader was actually played by David Prowse (a Green Cross Code man from the West Country).
The Zelensky Story (BBC Documentary)
🎦 43:56-44:32⏩
- Jonathan highly recommends the BBC documentary series The Zelensky Story, which is available on iPlayer. The first episode is excellent, and he is looking forward to the next two. It is well-made, with contributions from Zelensky himself, his friends and his family. It tells his story, from comedy actor to wartime president. Those outside the UK can watch it via a VPN.
Viewer Gratitude and Moral Dimension of the War
🎦 44:32-46:42⏩
- A viewer by the name of JayDogRules thanked Jonathan for convincing him to join the US Marines. The war in Ukraine (and the possibility of a similar war between China and Taiwan) spurred him on, and he feels it is his duty to stand for what is right. He will miss watching the videos during his 13 weeks of basic training, but hopes that by the time he returns, there will be good news from Ukraine, such as the destruction of the Kerch Bridge.
- Jonathan sees a link between this and the death of David Knowles. Many feel enraged by the injustice of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the moral dimension of the war. This viewer decided to take concrete action to fight against the growing tide of anti-democratic activity around the world.
Moscow still Smoking
🎦 46:42-47:05⏩
- There are still no Andrew Perpetua stats.
- PS01 is reporting that there is still black smoke in Moscow, although it is not clear what is causing it.
- Jonathan apologises for the length of the video.
Wrap up
🎦 47:05-47:05⏩
Jonathan signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unsure about what NowSHE refers to - presumably this is a person or organisation? Could you clarify?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a long transcript so I'll break it down step by step. First I'll extract the date, title and part and then I'll methodically work through the transcript adding the timestamps and creating titles as I go. I'll have to listen very carefully as Jonathan speaks quickly and there will be mistakes in the transcript. I know this is a sensitive topic and there's a human aspect to this too - and that it is important to remain impartial. Jonathan's viewers enjoy his humour and turn of phrase so I'll make sure this comes across in the summaries, especially with the quotes!
