Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is in my opinion the Russians throwing everything they can at the front line and i i think it's a better explanation it's not just because it sounds better from a pro-ukrainian point of view but it just appears to me to be a better explanation"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update video on the 12th December 2023. He reminds viewers that the figures for Russian losses should be taken with a pinch of salt, with all the caveats in the description below the video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report: Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-01:59⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian losses for the day prior are lower than recently seen; 800 personnel, 9 tanks, 19 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) and 3 artillery systems. He speculates that the lower figures could be attributed to the weather impacting visibility and drone usage, or the degradation of artillery impacting their availability. Jonathan highlights the loss of 9 tanks as being significant when extrapolated over a year.
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Ukraine General Staff Report: Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:59-02:11⏩
Jonathan states that, conversely, the Ukrainian General Staff report shows that Ukrainian losses are also lower than recently seen with 10 cruise missiles and 9 drones shot down. He reminds viewers that these figures may not reflect the reality of the situation.
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Andrew Perpetua: Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 02:11-03:45⏩
Jonathan references data from Andrew Perpetua, who surveys social media for visually confirmed losses. He cautions that the data primarily reflects drone-related losses rather than artillery due to the types of footage uploaded online. Whilst this offers a snapshot, it's not the full picture. Jonathan states that the ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian is around 7 or 8 to 1. He highlights that Ukraine's primary losses are boats which he believes will continue to be an ongoing challenge as Russia will exploit the need for Ukrainian boats to cross the Dnipro river. Despite this, overall visually confirmed Russian equipment losses are far higher than Ukrainian, a positive indicator for Ukraine.
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Kreminna: Russian Counterattacks and Losses
🎦 04:56-06:08⏩
Jonathan states that both sides are reporting heavy fighting around Kreminna. A failed Russian counterattack resulted in the loss of at least 5 pieces of heavy equipment, including a tank, 3 BMPs and a BTR-82A. Jonathan speculates that the number of Russian losses in the area are comparable to those in Vuhledar and Avdiivka.
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Kherson: Russian Equipment Losses (footage)
🎦 06:08-07:16⏩
Jonathan shares some footage from Kherson that shows the scale of Russian equipment losses in the region. The footage shows destroyed military and civilian vehicles in the sandy terrain that is characteristic of the area around Oleshky Sands. He draws parallels to the losses in Vuhledar, Avdiivka and most recently Kreminna where large numbers of Russian equipment has been lost.
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Avdiivka: Geoconfirmed Losses 10th - 30th October 2023
🎦 07:16-09:00⏩
Jonathan cites analysis by Geoconfirmed which confirms the loss of over 100 pieces of Russian equipment in a small 5x6km area of Northern Avdiivka in just 20 days, between 10th - 30th October. This area, which includes Keramik and Stepove, has been the site of intense fighting and represents an equipment graveyard. He extrapolates this figure to illustrate the vast scale of losses across the entirety of Avdiivka which stands at over 300 pieces of equipment. These losses, he says, would render most militaries combat ineffective, however, Russia's large stockpiles mean they can theoretically continue to send equipment to the front.
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Avdiivka: Loss of Rare BTR-90 (Prototype Testing?)
🎦 09:00-10:09⏩
Jonathan discusses the loss of a rare BTR-90, an 8 wheeled armoured personnel carrier that was destroyed in Avdiivka. He states that there are only 14 of this improved version of the BTR-80 in existence and that, given their rarity, the Russians may be using the conflict to test prototypes. He offers the opinion that this would indicate that Russia are throwing everything they can at the front. Jonathan dismisses the argument that this perspective is for pro-Ukrainian reasons, stating that he believes this to be the most plausible explanation.
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Avdiivka: Potential Use of GLSDB by Ukraine
🎦 10:09-11:59⏩
Jonathan credits viewer Richard Gilman with an observation about footage that shows a Russian K-37 Buk Mobile SAM system being destroyed. Richard suggests that this may have been achieved by the Ukrainians using a Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), a munition that can be fired from HIMARS, giving it a range of 160km. Richard bases this on the direction the Buk was facing, suggesting it was targeting a GLSDB that had manoeuvred behind it. Jonathan states that he cannot verify this claim and that Ukraine are due to receive GLSDBs in 2024.
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Russia: Recent Large Fires
🎦 11:59-12:45⏩
Jonathan reports on some of the large fires that have occurred in Russia in the preceding days. A furniture shop in Kursk was engulfed in flames with the fire covering an area of 3600 square metres. A warehouse fire in Orenburg, said to be storing grain, also resulted in significant damage. 15 pieces of firefighting equipment and 32 specialists were needed to contain the fire. Jonathan mentions two smaller fires in the preceding days and concludes that the fires continue.
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Russia: Omsk Railway Arson
🎦 12:45-13:12⏩
Jonathan, citing Tim White, reports that there have been further acts of sabotage on Russian railways. He states that a battery cabinet was damaged by fire at a station used by freight trains in Omsk. This act of sabotage will impact the industrial zone in the city. Whilst the Russians claim that there has been minimal disruption, Jonathan speculates that this may not be the case.
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Ukraine: Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 13:12-14:08⏩
Jonathan turns his attention to the overnight missile and drone attacks. 15 drones were sent, 9 of which were shot down. Jonathan states that the remaining 6 will undoubtedly cause damage. He observes that 2 Kh-59 missiles were also sent, both of which were shot down, and questions the purpose of only sending 2 as they are easily dealt with. He concludes that the mystery surrounding the expected increased tempo of Russian missile attacks is ongoing.
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Kyiv: Sewage Treatment Plant Targeted
🎦 14:08-16:06⏩
Jonathan reports that a missile attack on Kyiv, in which $32 million worth of missiles were shot down, may have been targeting a sewage treatment plant. This, he says, is a worrying escalation away from energy infrastructure towards hygiene and sewage removal which impacts the daily lives of Ukrainian citizens. He expresses some uncertainty about the ethics of targeting energy infrastructure given the often blurry line between legitimate military targets and war crimes. However, in his opinion, targeting sewage works is more clearly in the war crime category.
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Russia: Alexei Navalny Disappears From Prison
🎦 16:06-17:07⏩
Jonathan reports on the disappearance of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who is currently serving a 30-year prison sentence. His lawyer has been unable to locate him, and his name is no longer on the prisoner list at the prison in the Vladimir region. Jonathan speculates that Navalny may have been moved to a harsher prison, or worse, disappeared by the Russian authorities.
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Russia: New Passport Restrictions (Soviet-style Control)
🎦 17:07-20:29⏩
Jonathan, referencing Anton Gerashchenko, reports that the Russian government has implemented new regulations that allow them to confiscate the passports of any Russian citizen who is banned from leaving the country. The new law requires citizens to surrender their passports within 5 days to either the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Federal Security Service (FSB). Those subject to the ban include people with access to state secrets, those in military service, those under criminal investigation, debtors and bankrupts. These new rules came into effect on 12th December 2023 after being signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Jonathan highlights how these passport restrictions, together with other restrictions on movement, represent an escalation of control over Russian citizens. He refutes the argument that Ukraine is guilty of similar suppression of freedoms by highlighting the difference between a country defending itself from an aggressor and a dictatorship.
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US - Ukraine: New Strategy After Counteroffensive
🎦 20:29-27:22⏩
Jonathan reports that the US has recommended that Ukraine strengthens its positions over the next year and increases indigenous weapons productions. He states that this is an approach he has been advocating for a while, suggesting that Ukraine use long-range standoff munitions, such as ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones to target Russian forces and inflict losses. This approach allows Ukraine to offset the disparity in force sizes and conserve their personnel. Jonathan goes on to discuss an article in the New York Times which states that Russia now has an advantage in terms of troop numbers, ammunition and missiles. He is skeptical about some of these claims as there is limited evidence to support them, particularly with regard to Russian missile stockpiles. Jonathan also discusses the US's recent decision to deploy a three-star General to Kyiv, Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto Jr. He will work directly with Ukraine's military leadership and signals a shift in US policy, which previously prohibited the prolonged deployment of high-ranking military personnel to Ukraine. Jonathan points out that this restriction has not applied to the UK. The New York Times article goes on to suggest that the US are pushing for a more cautious approach, focusing on holding current positions and building capacity in 2024. The Ukrainians, however, favour a more aggressive approach with deep strikes behind Russian lines. The article describes how Ukrainian strikes against the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea have been one of the few successes of their counteroffensive. American strategists believe that Ukraine can build on these successes whilst simultaneously rebuilding their forces. The article goes on to say that Ukrainian troops were training to overcome Russian defences that were far less formidable than those they encountered during the counteroffensive. Jonathan observes that the article fails to adequately highlight the impact of Russian air superiority and their use of helicopters, which have been key factors in the conflict.
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Ukraine: A Strategy for 2024
🎦 27:22-28:14⏩
Jonathan offers his own perspective on a strategy for 2024, suggesting that Ukraine should focus on retreating where necessary in order to inflict maximum casualties and attrition to the invading Russian forces. He stresses that the most important factor is for Ukraine to maintain an attrition ratio heavily in their favour.
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Russia: Traffic Police IT Systems Down
🎦 28:14-28:32⏩
Jonathan, citing Tim White, reports that Russia's traffic police computer systems have gone down, speculating that this could be due to a cyberattack. He explains that this outage will impact all aspects of traffic policing, including vehicle taxes and licensing. He concludes that it may take many days to fix.
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USA: Airmen Disciplined for Security Failings
🎦 28:32-29:22⏩
Jonathan reports that the US Air Force has disciplined 15 airmen from the 102nd Intelligence Wing and the Massachusetts Air National Guard. The airmen are being disciplined for their failure to report on the concerning behaviour of Jack Teixeira, who was responsible for leaking classified documents to the Discord server Thug Shaker Central in April 2023. Jonathan believes that this action sends the right message and that there need to be consequences for leaking sensitive information.
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Wrap Up
🎦 29:22-29:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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