Ukraine War Update NEWS
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you make a bad decision at work and you're a commander in a war zone, people die, right? And that is about as bad as it can get, right? Sending a number of people to their certain death based on a cock-up."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologizes for the slightly late video today after an exhausting day yesterday. He has a cup of tea and is ready to get started with the news update.
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Ukrainian General Staff Figures on Russian Losses
- Russian troop losses were down to 390 for the previous day, possibly due to a lull in fighting after recent battles in the Robotyne and Staromayorske areas.
- Losses were also down across tanks, APVs, artillery systems. No cruise missiles or drones reported.
- Russians are starting to post the same videos of Ukrainian losses from different angles, e.g. the attack on Robotyne where Ukraine lost several BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles.
- Jonathan cautions against trying to paint Ukrainian losses in the best light. Rumors suggest miscommunication and too many commanders led to the disastrous attack.
- While regrettable, bad decisions happen in war with deadly consequences. It's important to learn from them.
Hits and Losses
- Partisans hit an ammo depot in Russian-occupied Crimea around 10pm where Russia's 810th Marine Infantry Brigade is based. Emergency vehicles were seen responding but not many details yet.
- At least 5 people were injured in a Russian strike on Dnipro that hit a high-rise apartment and SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) headquarters.
- An oil refinery employee born in Ukraine reportedly blew up the Kuybyshev oil refinery in Samara, Russia with an IED. Not many details yet.
- A Russian BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system was damaged by cluster munitions, demonstrating their effectiveness against equipment, not just troops.
Distance Strikes
- Explosions reported in Taganrog, Rostov oblast. Russia claims Ukraine fired an S-200 surface-to-air missile that was intercepted, with wreckage falling on the city. However, video shows the missile clearly hitting its target, contradicting Russian claims.
- The Chonhar bridge connecting Crimea and Kherson oblast was struck again, likely by Storm Shadow missiles. Railway bridge there also previously hit.
- Jonathan speculates the recent Russian attack on the Ukrainian airfield hosting Su-24M bombers that can carry Storm Shadow missiles may have temporarily disrupted their use. But this strike shows they are still operational.
Russian Missile Stockpiles
Jonathan explains what he means by Russia "running out" of missiles:
- It doesn't mean they have zero missiles or can't produce more. It means their usage is constrained by dwindling stockpiles compared to earlier in the war.
- Gaps between Russian missile attacks and lower numbers fired per attack indicate supply issues affecting their usage, even though their strategic aims haven't changed.
- Latest missiles used were manufactured in Q2 2023, showing they are using newly produced ones.
- But production rates likely can't sustain previous peak usage levels AND maintain minimal strategic reserves.
- Russia is using more Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and P-800 Oniks missiles now as stocks of others like Kh-101, Kh-555 and Iskander-M run low. But these are not ideal for striking ground targets.
Other News
- Ukraine has used North Korean artillery shells, likely captured from Russian forces near Bakhmut. Shoigu's recent visit to North Korea underscores Russia's need for more ammunition.
- Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and David Sacks had a discussion advocating appeasement of Russia over Ukraine. Jonathan is concerned about the reach and influence they have in spreading these "horrible ideas".
- Rumor of a mutiny by Russia's 70th Motorized Rifle Brigade near Novopokrovka on the front lines. Unconfirmed.
- The realities of Ukraine's counteroffensive are becoming apparent. Urban combat requires infantry, not expensive Western armor that would be vulnerable. Russians have adapted tactics since Ukraine's initial successes. Drones are proving to be a "game changer".
- Ukraine is taking measures to protect port infrastructure but expects more Russian attacks, possibly with new tactics. Ukraine needs 10-12 Patriot batteries to properly defend against missiles like Kinzhal that can only be intercepted by the best air defense systems. Plugging these gaps in coverage takes time.
Wrap up
This concludes part 1 of the news update. Stay tuned for part 2 coming shortly.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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